No margin call, all cash.

Accumulate on dips for maximum profit when irrational selling stops and upward momentum resumes on strong turnaround profit growth.

Steel your guts, relax, keep calm and continue buying on dips.

When everyone is bearish in this forum, that's the strongest indicator to buy more ;)
Vice versa.

I’m buying more at this price. Buying on dips is an undying mantra haha.

I would suggest those who can’t take the heat to sell. Then you can have peace of mind.

As long as BA continues to keep quiet re Claire, the share price continues to slide.
No proper investor communication = weakness and doesn't instill investor's confidence.
As a result, investors flee.

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.
There will be no more disposal by EPF as it has reached the 5% floor limit (5.003%).
From here on out, EPF can either only hold or buy more.
EPF's holding usually ranges between 5% - 6%.
EPF now has the runway to buy around 60m shares to get to 6%.

Oil price stable around US$65
Phase 1 US-China trade deal signed
Kraken continues to improve with the possibility for write-back in 2020
OMS utilization continue to improve with Petronas dishing out new contracts
Debt restructuring is complete

All these will lead to the gradual paring down of debt to create shareholders value.
I'd expect a slow and steady climb back to RM1 by the end of 2020.

the discount currently is probably thanks to impatience and those who have lost faith once the rapid upward momentum fizzles out for consolidation before resuming to boom again.

take advantage of this to accumulate. it's too late and much riskier to chase high when the price starts to rebound.

EPF can sell 0.003% more but that's about it.

Below this, EPF will cease to be a substantial shareholder - this is a change in strategy which will likely require EPF management approval.

Historically, EPF has always sold up to 5% floor, and then start buying again.

IMO Bumi Armada should have made an interim announcement regarding the status of the Claire court case - since the judgment has now been delayed by almost a month from the expected Dec 2019 outcome.

Remaining radio silent is just poor investor communication and doesn't build confidence.

This is probably what caused the share price to slide in the past few weeks. Investors are now getting fed up with trying to wait for a favorable Claire outcome while the company keeps mum and no one has a clue when to expect Claire's judgment.

Reiterating from 2019 AGM:

Updates on the litigation with Woodside Energy Julimar Pty Ltd (“Woodside”):

The trial for the litigation with Woodside relating to the termination of the contract of
Armada Claire was concluded in March 2019. The compensation requested by the
Company was about USD275 million. However, the exact amount would largely depend
on the court’s final decision expected to be issued by end of this year. The Company
maintained its views that there were reasonable grounds to expect a favourable outcome
in respect of its claims against Woodside.

Fantastic price at current level.
Rebound imminent.
Strongest conviction BUY.
Hold for one month, wait end Feb Q4 results.
Kraken ST debt expected to have been restructured to LT by end 2019 too, not announced yet.

I’m going to hold tight - so see you guys end Feb.

Remember to see the big picture - it’s a turnaround story, and this is just the start. The spike will likely happen out of the blue when you least expect it, and it’s going to be fast and furious. Probably almost impossible to time. So take luck in your own hands. Buy and hold - don’t check everyday minute/hour/day, enjoy the peace of mind, and the big bucks a few months down the road.

Never panic sell and never chase high.

Do the reverse, when the price drops for no reason or newsflow, be brave and buy. When the price suddenly spikes feverishly over a short period, don’t be greedy and take profit.

Now is the time to BUY - by end of Feb when Q4 is released with stronger cash flow, higher OMS utilization and Claire potential award, it will not be the same price.

Hence, my usual tag line:

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.

EPF is finished dumping. They are at the 5% threshold now. Dumping below this level means that they will cease to become a substantial shareholder - this is a key decision that probably needs EPF management approval. From here on out, EPF can only buy or hold.

Quite simple - cashflow generation is very strong now with Kraken's improvement and higher OSV utilization, increasing the ability to pare down debt over time and produce strong net profit results.

All short term debt that could create a liquidity crunch has been restructured to long term debt and the strong cash generation of the company is more than sufficient to meet the repayment requirements.

Oil price is trending up due to geopolitical instability and resolution of US-China trade war, reducing counterparty (upstream producer) default risk.

In other words, almost all risks have dissipated for Armada. Lower risks = higher share price.
I do not foresee any downside risk at the moment for Armada apart from Act of God (e.g. adverse weather sinking ships etc.) which is extremely unlikely and covered by insurance anyway.

whereas there is definitely further upside in profitability in Q4 - I would expect core net profit to be >RM90m compared to around RM78m in Q3, and once full year 2019 results are out, we will be ready for 70 cents.

Happy to hear your views on any downside risks that you could foresee in 2020. As the market does not expect any bonus from Claire and has not priced this in - so for me - the downside risk is very limited - perhaps only due to short-selling and profit taking.

Update from Jonathan from BA:

- No definitive date set by the court for a decision
- The previous guidance of end-2019 was only an estimate
- The company continues to wait for a decision which will be made public by the court

The upward swing factor now will be OSV utilization.

Petronas has significantly bumped upstream capex and demand for OSV in 2H2019, and I think Armada should benefit tremendously from this. Utilization is likely to be >80% by the end of this year and Armada can realize its full cashflow generation potential to pare down debt.

Also, there's no short term liquidity pressure on Armada in the whole of 2020.

On this basis, I think downside risk is very limited and the upside potential is huge, especially we have a potential Claire award incoming.

Buy, hold and sit tight - bumpy as it may be, enjoy the ride.

Q4 2019 + Full Year 2019 results are going to be sparkling.

Core net profit is expected to be even higher in Q4 than Q3, with full recognition of cost savings from Perdana disposal (RM18m/quarter).

Given the silence surrounding Claire's court case, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an out-of-court settlement with woodside - just pure speculation for now.

boring, boring, boring, SPIKE.

See the big picture. This is a turnaround story, and now is just the beginning.

Price next minute or hour or days - 0.45 or 0.55 I can’t tell.

Price in 2-3 months time after Q4 is out, almost certain to be higher than 0.50 today.

Match your buy/sell decision based on your preferred holding period. If you’re a day trader trading on volatility, buy or sell both make sense depending on your speculation. If you can hold a couple months, buy seems to make more sense.

1 more week to trade deal signing on 15 Jan.

Trump does not want war with Iran for 2020 election - war is bad for US economy, and bad for his chances to win. So we'll have enough geopolitical instability to boost oil price, but not enough to go to war to dent oil demand. It's a good situation to be in.

Time to steel your guts and buy NOW.
I've said this earlier when it was 0.46 before I went on holiday, and I reiterate the same view.
It's now a 10% discount from its peak of 0.555.
Buy and hold until Q4 results + Claire award are out.

5% discount today when oil price is going up up up.
Phase 1 trade deal to be signed on 15 Jan - further upside to oil.
Claire award anytime soon.
and 1.5 months away from Q4 reporting which is expected to be strongly positive from Armada Perdana RM6m/month savings = +RM18m / quarter.

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.
This is your chance today.

When 4Q results come out end Feb 2019, it will complete a sparkling set of FY2019 full year results with strong net profit. Even more institutional investors will flock in to Armada as some are probably precluded from investing unless the last financial year's net profit is positive.

and Claire's results will be out anytime now. Even a partial award will be strongly beneficial to Armada's balance sheet.

On balance, there's strong upside at current price.

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.

It's been a while - happy new year.

2020 motto remains:

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.

Maybe sign for us to all go take a break and enjoy the holidays. Shall do so now.

Remember - relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips!

See you guys in 2020!

KNM is a good case study of how sudden and furious a rebound can be. It’s totally out of the blue and unpredictable. Best to hold position / buy in before the surge. Year end coming very soon.

Happening to all stocks.

Looks like hang. Not clearing and marching the pre market closing books at 4.50pm. Very strange.

The rebound is going to be so sudden and furious, lol.

Thanks. Good to know that TP for Affin Hwang is 0.62 - they have always been one of the better brokers for O&G.

19 Dec in HSBC report could also mean Dec 2019 for all it's worth - Jonathan from BA has replied to me earlier and said that:

1) The court judgment date is not definitive
2) There will not be any court event (not sure what this means, but I take it as the judge will just issue its decision directly)
3) The court decision will be made public

In any case, 7.5 more trading days left in 2019, so not much difference.

Reposting it here - HSBC report dated 27 November 2019:
Title: Bumi Armada - Focus on Debt Reduction


" Upside risks include settlement of its lawsuit with Woodside (due to conclude 19 Dec) and
redeployment of Armada Claire. Further asset sales and deleveraging may also be
catalysts for the stock, in our view.

Like I said - the judgment date is quoted from the HSBC report - analyst Colin Davis.
It's not a free report for circulation - those with Bloomberg and Capital IQ can access it.

Claire's potential award = US$283.5m = MYR1.17bn cash
Armada's shares outstanding = 5.88bn
This is equivalent to 20 cents per share

If this is finalized by Jun 2020, the benefit to the company is more than 20 cents per share.
Why? Because financial distress risk is literally 0% for Armada by then.

Remember cost of debt (i.e. interest rate) is directly proportional to the risk of financial distress. Lower risk = lower cost of debt = lower WACC = higher company value = higher share price. Basic finance 101.

I think without Claire, Armada will gradually move back to 80 cents or more in another 1-2 years.
With Claire's full award, it will gap up to 80 cents or more by June 2020.

As usual, just my views and I'm half wrong all the time.

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips!

I have checked with Jonathan Duckett from BA.
The Australian Supreme Court will make its court decision public.

Basically you can check it here at the Judgments page:

https://ecourts.justice.wa.gov.au/eCourtsPortal/Decisions/Filter/SC/RecentDecisions?decisionDocumentType=Judgments&appealType=All

Search keywords like Armada Balnaves (holding entity for Claire) and any judgment will pop up.

There could be some lag time between Court public announcement and company announcement - so if you diligently check this you have some time advantage to react earlier.

Goodluck.

Hold until June 2020 because that's when Claire's court awards (if any) will be finalized with no further appeal.

Incredibly cheap price with very limited downside risk.

The only downside risk at this stage is irrational selling against strongly improved fundamentals which has significantly derided compared to 12 months ago.

Relax, keep calm and continue buying on temporal dips.
Hold until June 2020.

Woodside up to US$283.5 claim, if awarded full amount, that’s equivalent to 20 cents per share. That will gap up.

The price currently based on DCF does not take into account any bonus cash flow from Claire’s award.

On a risk-adjusted basis, this is a fantastic risk free bet with great returns.

No more foreseeable downside risk at this stage.

Kraken, oil price, trade war, OMS utilization, debt restructuring all green light.

All stars aligned and good to go.

Fantastic macro environment + turnaround + strongly improved fundamentals + 20% discount from peak = up

We will start to trend back towards 0.55 now and beyond.

1) 3 consecutive quarter of strong net profits, Q4 2019 expected to be better, and 2020 a complete turnaround

2) OPEC+ 2.1m deep production cut - oil price at US$65+ now

3) Phase one trade deal, increased demand for oil

4) Fed and ECB have planned to keep interest rate low on 2020, meaning that there will be more hot money coming to emerging markets as funds are going risk-on

5) Kraken continues to improve uptime

6) IMO 2020 beneficial for Kraken sweet crude trading at US$10 premium to Brent

7) Petronas expected to need many more OSVs in 2020 and BA will be able to redeploy this and improve utilization

8) Armada Perdana RM6m cost savings per month = RM18m per quarter will fully show in Q4 onwards

9) Constructor and Installer expected to be deployed in 2020

10) Claire

With all the above positives, share price have slid 20% against logic and fundamentals. There’s a limit to it. How long do you think this will last?

Hang in there, share price is going to spike again soon.

It’s like a heavily compressed spring now ready to bounce with share price going down for more than 2 weeks despite record quarterly profit, opec+ production cut, US-China trade deal, and significantly stronger fundamentals with Kraken improvements, higher OMS utilization and lower cost base.

The share price going against improved fundamentals and positive macro trends has its limit. Time to short squeeze the short sellers soon.

The mispricing and severe undervaluation won’t go on for long. So just relax, keep calm and continue buying on dips.

This is not a company in trouble anymore - this is a company getting out of trouble and performing excellently. the short term downtrend will eventually break, reverse, and resume upward trend.

Highest conviction buy call.

Very relaxed.

Fantastic 3 consecutive growing net profits, further turnaround with Kraken and potential OMS job wins, OPEC+ cut and US-China trade deal all happened - but BA’s price remained flat.

Soon some institutional fund will realize this doesn’t make sense and decide to buy in big. We have seen Armada’s share price fluctuate >10% out of the blue with no news flow so many times.

This is what I call the boring, boring, boring, SPiKE phenomenon for Armada lol.

Boring, boring, boring, SPIKE.

Trade deal announced.
Brent now breaches US$65.
WTI higher than US$60.

This would benefit all O&G stocks on Monday.
Aramco has already surged to US$2 trillion valuation.

It appears that the overall pulse of the comments on this forum has turned negative in line with the share price, despite OPEC+ surprising deeper cut, trade war impending resolution, and strong reversion to 3 consecutive quarters of net profit.

For me personally this is a strong buy indicator when sentiment suddenly turns bearish against logic despite stronger macro and fundamentals. I do not have the ability to time the lowest point of the market and can’t predict correctly half the time whether it’s going to go up or down in the next minute hour or day. 0.40 is possible, so does 0.60. The odds of predicting such is as good as a coin flip - 50/50.

However, given a longer time horizon, fundamentals and logic have always prevailed. Let time work in your favor, not against you.

Very limited downside risk from here on:

1) OPEC+ cut

2) US-China Trade War Phase 1 deal

3) Price is now at 20% discount at its peak Profit takers have slowed down significantly and short sellers are hesitant to short due to 1) and 2) above.

The pulse of the market is going to get upbeat next week. Stay tuned.

We’ll see.