https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/overseas-funds-loving-malaysia-glove-stocks-again-after-selloff

@ RISK8888 1q 1.5 bil = 1y 6bil = mkt cap = 60bil ler.

give 50% discount mkt cap =30 billion TP=30/2.721=11

Supermax TP=RM11

@ pjseow Abba84, China central bank did the right thing.by stopping the Ant IPO. If Ant s business is lending money , it had better follow the banking laws . ANT IPO will not be approved by US banking laws too after they experienced the 2008.of financial crisis which bankrupt almost.all the big banks plus the insurance companies. Jack Ma can.try to IPO ANT group in the US if he think.US is less stringent . Try and see and I wish him good luck.

Agreed with pjseow. I was really surprised that Jack Ma could go that far as to attempt an IPO on Ant Financial . The extreme leverage proposed by Ant Financial in its business operations will never be allowed by any banking laws in the world today. The financial crisis of 2008 has taught the world a good lesson

moi87, well said

ultrabot, you have a stereotype view of world affairs. Western countries are more transparent ?? Do you ignore the atrocities committed by western governments in the name of democracy/freedom over say the past thirty years, and countinuing today ? Do you ignore the covert / secret operations carried out by western governments to destabilise the countries/governments they dont like ?

Its 5000 Yuan Per Month. They don't pick cottons every month

can expect more than 50% gain within 6 months

Supermax share have dropped to bottom levels now thanks to panic selling by some retailers. Can buy now. Don't trade . Can expect more than 50% within 6 months

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-03-02-story-h1541975241-Supermax_Trading_at_Forward_PE_of_3_3_While_Sitting_on_RM3_56_Billion_C.jsp

Can see all signs of collection in progress

@pjseow HLG methodology , Maintain BUY, TP: RM8.14. We maintain our BUY with unchanged TP of RM8.14. We value Top Glove using with their pre-pandemic 5-year average PE multiple (CY15-19) tagged to sustainable earnings in a post-supernormal earnings environment (FY23) summed with free cash flows generated during the boom period (both discounted back to PV) (Figure #1

Most analysts use FY23 earnings for estimate. Pegging pre pandemics 5year average PEs appears to be reasonable to me. So target price should be much higher than the RM8.14 asserted by HLG. However most analysts would not put up a price much higher than the current price, preferring to raise their TP later normally citing "new developments"

My 2 sen

@pjseow very reasonable estimate. I will say that Big Funds had their calculations done & have been accumulating TG shares

Same spike in volume & price in Supermax around 4.50pm. What does it mean ?

@ AlsvinChangan shorties collect trucks loads of bullets to collect dividends and to lower their costs. then dump the huge rock after ex-dividend

It is more likely that big funds are collecting. We will see clearly Monday

@ moneymakerx Whoever went sapu those in such high volume. geng. Either is closing position or new whale

Hahaha may be some short sellers decided to cover & long at the same time

@pjseow. I agree HLG's method of discounting earnings of FY21-23 to PV is most logical.However I think HLG's FY24 earning estimate is very conservative. With the New Normal of "never ending" Covid-19, there will not be a "post pendemic" lost in demand. Glove asp will remain much higher than pre pandemic period due to New Normal demand dynamics

Stockisnotfun is talking nonsense again. Simply talking without making any detailed study on the HK listing.

linheng Posted by newway > Mar 15, 2021 10:19 PM | Report Abuse
@beginner shorties now can only block the price with rss but they also got limited bullets to sell down, even with 3.8m rss the price just down 2cents. up or down is ok to me, if down to rm5 i just top up, if up i just rejoice. when the price can't go down then eventually it will just go up
Good observation
SPOT ON. FAKE SELLERS. RSS VOLUMN IS PRACTICALLY ZERO. THE SELLER SHD BE PROPRIETARY. DARE NOT THROW TO BUYER. BUYER COULD BE HIS OTHER NOMINEE ACC. PARK BIG VOLUMN BUT DONE IN ODD LOTS. NOR GOING TO FRIGHTEN RETAILERS TO THROW ANYMORE

Good way to frighten off retailers. Wonder if it is not illegal

newway @ pjseow Newway , Topglove product latest mix is 44 % Nitrile and the rest are latex and vinyl gloves. Nitrile had more than double ASPs and margins than other types of gloves. Topgloves revenues volumes and market shares has always been.more than Harta. With.strong.demand of nitriles gloves, topglove new capacities are nitriles. In fact , topgloves has been converting latexx capacities into nitrile capacities. Today , topglove is number 1 in nitriles , in lattexx and in vinyl gloves global positions based on its latest presentation. Today, Topglove total capacity is 93 billion where Harta is at 44 billions.

Yes TG has surpassed Harta as the No.1 producer of nitrile gloves, a high margin sector once dominated by Harta

@ pjseow the comfort qtr result just confirmed the strong demand for gloves including latexx gloves TG has substantial capacity

@fortheemprah @newway In that case, then the proposed theory works. If indeed RM57mil packs a punch, we should expect a fair amount of closing short position in the coming days. Looking at the transactions today, shorties shorted another 3.8 million shares. The stability of the share price may be explained by the aggressive share buy backs that has been taking place.

Just saw your post. I think it is quite impossible for the 299m shorted shares to be covered over the next few days. If shorties attempt to do that, there will be multiple limit ups. The big time shorties have the resources to pay the dividends but the ikan bilis shorties {the ones who borrowed a few thousand shares to play play} will feel the heat and will most likely buyback...they may be doing that today already, giving support to the share price!
Just my 2 cents

@beginner shorties now can only block the price with rss but they also got limited bullets to sell down, even with 3.8m rss the price just down 2cents. up or down is ok to me, if down to rm5 i just top up, if up i just rejoice. when the price can't go down then eventually it will just go up

Good observation

@ pjseow Newway , Topglove product latest mix is 44 % Nitrile and the rest are latex and vinyl gloves. Nitrile had more than double ASPs and margins than other types of gloves. Topgloves revenues volumes and market shares has always been.more than Harta. With.strong.demand of nitriles gloves, topglove new capacities are nitriles. In fact , topgloves has been converting latexx capacities into nitrile capacities. Today , topglove is number 1 in nitriles , in lattexx and in vinyl gloves global positions based on its latest presentation. Today, Topglove total capacity is 93 billion where Harta is at 44 billions.

Yes TG has surpassed Harta as no.1 in nitriles

@titan3322 Honesty I have parked a bus to buy at 4.20 ex div there is no way it will fall below 4.50 within this 2 months dont dream

It may not be necessary. Today shorties shorted 3.8m shares with hardly any change in the share price. Only a few days left for shorties to buyback, otherwise pay the dividend

@ valendinlou Pre covid 19, Top Glove size is more than double Hartalega but Harta's profit is higher than Top Glove.

You are right. My apology

@fortheemprah , RM 57 million is a significant amount whichever way you look at it. Typically the shorties borrowed the shares at very low marginal interests costs. The dividend at RM.252 per share is significant as this is the immediate cost to the shorties now.
Going forward another dividend of >RM.252 is coming in 3 months time

@ fortheemprah Guys, I see a lot of hope placed on the dividend ex-date. These IBs are cash rich institution. Furthermore, they are not losing much. They will receive the full RM57million. In what aspect will they be hurt by the dividends ex?

The shorties had sold the borrowed shares of some 229 millions. They have to pay the dividends on the shares to the share lenders.

@ valendinlou Pre covid 19, Top Glove size is more than double Hartalega but Harta's profit is higher than Top Glove.

valendinlou, Harta's profit is NOT higher than Top Glove. You need to check your facts before you post. Otherwise you may mislead some innocent souls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TeyHfl7Ohc live talk

Shorties have depressed TG price from RM7 to RM5 by substantive shorts. Net shorted position is 227.8 million shares. TG price has steadied at RM5 thanks to insider and institutional buying retailers supports. Now shorties have to pay RM.252 per share dividend if they don't buyback by 23/3/21. Lets see if shorties continue to short and attempt to depress the price further.
I hold long positions on TG. Waiting patiently for price appreciation when shorties are forced to buyback to limit their losses

Thank you Honesty for telling that owner bought at RM7. Tan Sri knows it is worth more than RM7

Net short position on TG as at 11/3/21 is 227.8 million units. Shorties have to pay dividend on the shorted shares & shorties have to buy back the shares soon or incur higher dividend payments moving forward. Investors can hold on to their TG shares and enjoy the dividend or keep adding the shares as the price is now very attractive. Sell to shorties later at much higher prices.

Ignore the naysayers. They are not genuine commentators in this forum. It is very clear they have ulterior motives

Living with Covid-19 will be the New Normal. Significant Increase in glove usage is part of the new normal. That is why glove demand worldwide is ahead of supply capacity at least for the next 4 years

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7JhvSgcuy0 some info on covid-19

Absolutely AdCool. But you say does not interest Honesty at all. Honesty just want to see TG prices coming down. For what reason I don't want to guess

IB / Shorties selling. Foreigners and local retailers buying. For every seller, there is a buyer. haha
But shorties have to buy back later....

Shorties net short position as of 11/3/21 is 227.8 million shares. retail investors can help the shorties by selling off their TG shares cheap cheap. Alternatively retail investors can hold on to their TG shares, enjoy handsome dividends for many coming quarters, before selling off at much higher prices. When panic selling stops, shorties will have to buy back TG shares....In the meantime the naysayers in this forum are bad-mouthing TG everyday and some has expressed desire to buy TG shares at RM4.Good luck to them

I am adding my TG position.

@pjseow Many may not realise there is a few months lag between orders received , acknowledged versus actual shipments. Topglove reported long leadtime in August last year .The last Q2 shipments were ordered last year with last year pricings . The coming qtrs shipments will defintely be orders from 6 months or more ago. That is the reason why Topglove is so confident the next 2 qtrs will be better. What about Q1 and Q2 of 2022 ?? Since the leadtime is still.high at 170 days which.is about 6 months , whatever orders recd now will be shipped 6 months later . That means the shipments will be in.Q1 of 2022. Even if we assume the ASP start to drop in.March this month , the revenue will only be felt in 2022. I did a quick calculation by assuming the.ASP dropping 30 % from current US 70 to 50 per thousand gradually , with new expanded capacity of 146 billions and margin drop to 45 %, the total earnings per year can still hit 12 billions for FY 2022.

Thank you pjseow for an excellent presentation on facts

RM5.50 is still a very low price for accumulation

@ pjseow Further to my comment yesterday that even during the 8 years period without pandemic from 2011 till 2019 , there was an annual growth rate of 9 %, I would like to share the actual growth rates during the pandemic in 2020 ,2021 and the years after that. Based on data from Margma and International Trade centre, the demand for gloves grew 20 % to 356 billions in 2020 from 298 billions in 2019. In 2021 , it grow another 25% to 447 billions. The cumulative demands for these 2 years are actually more than 50 % . The demand could be higher if sufficient capacities are installed in.time.Many orders were pushed out further with long lead times with almost all glove makers reported 2021 capacities fully booked since Jan this year. The glove.makers are not able to meet the sudden.more than 50 % increase in demands as the lead times to increase capacity takes 9 months or more . By the time in April or.May last year to order the.equipments, only.in Jan , Feb 2021 can the.additional capacities be added. Most of the top glove makers announced doubling of their capacities within.5 years. This is equivalent to 15 % CAGR. If we assume the glove usage growth rate at 15 % in.2022, 2023 ,2024 till 2025 , the.demand will still exceed supply. Lets.do some maths. In.2019, total world wide.capacity is 298 billions. In 2024 , the total capacities will reach. 596 billions ( double) but demand in 2024 will be 447x 1.15 x 1.15 x 1.15 = 680 billions . As long as demand exceed total available capacities, ASP need not drop drastically. It may drop gradually at 10 to 15 % but this drop will be compensated with the 15 % added capacity each year. Hence the earnings for the next five years could be maintained or taper off gradually. I will.comment later on.glove usage per capita for.different continents and share the huge rooms for demand growth for the next 10 years.

Thank you pjseow for excellent presentation of facts.

@linheng Price will recover to above $6 very soon. The selling is done by local Institutions. Except for those own by this IBs for leverage against the CWs they issued, I don't think they own that amount of Glove shares to sell. If they do, they would have sold at a higher price, not now.
Look are the bursa stats. A lot of selling is done by PROPRIETARY.
Who is PROPRIETARY?. This are trade by IBs for themselves done through IBs dealers. WHERE DOES THE SHARES COME FROM? THEY USED CLIENT'S MARGIN SHARES. So they have to buyback ultimately. WE NEED THE SLIDE TO STOP AND SOME CONSOLIDATION BEFORE RECOVERY TO NORMAL LEVELS. The slide had stop. We are 3 MKt days pass the Lowest Price.
I HAVE BEEN IN THIS INDUSTRY FOR OVER 40 YRS

This is some analysis. Anti-glove promotors here should show some analysis instead of repeatedly shouting and barking slogans

If you think today's rise is fantastic, you aint see nothing yet. Monday & Tuesday big jumps in price coming before release of qr result

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/lovetoinvest/2021-03-03-story-h1541978183-Dear_Investors_It_Is_Time_To_Buy_Gloves_Round_2.jsp

@l3ryan government assist what? every demand drop all over the world malaysia government wan to paid for it is it?
Please stop talking nonsense here. World demand for gloves is increasing even without Covid-19. World glove supply capacity is not sufficient to meet demand at least for the next 2 years

Glove demand increasing , irrespective of the Covid-19 outcome

Glove demand forecast https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/11/2143922/0/en/The-rubber-gloves-market-by-revenue-is-expected-to-grow-at-a-CAGR-of-over-13-during-the-period-2021-2026.html

retail investors easily panic. Sells cheap to institutional investors who has been collecting

what happens to sellers ? Losing steam already ? Congrats to investors who collected at low prices

Demand exceeds supply capacity in the next 2 years whatever the Covid 19 situation. Check this out in all major publications

shorties & co. are doing a good job instilling fear into some retail investors. Some retail investors gave up and sold their shares at very low prices......this may be the last chance for shorties to buy back,,,,when qrt result is announced next month, people will see the real worth of TG