Will CPO price stay above RM4,000 throughout 2023? There could be a correlation between crude oil price and palm oil price. If Opec+ maintains a production level that keeps Crude oil price around USD 80 per barrel, there is a possibility that palm oil price will remain above RM 4000. Additionally, with high crude oil price Indonesia will increase the production of Biodiesel. The earning outlook for palm oil sector will likely remain positive going forward.
Please make your own judgement when investing.

1. The average CPO price for Q4 is about the same as Q3.
2. Q4 production figure is 10% higher than Q3

Considering points 1 and 2 above, what will be the estimated EPS for Q4? Another record earning in 2022?

Agree. It is a good counter which is undervalue. It will eventually reflect its real worth. Be patient.

Sekarang kedekut, sikit hari nanti, dividend akan jadi bagus. What counts is that the company is well-run and has a solid track records and strong financial position.

If CPO price will remain firm in the second half of 2022 as mentioned in the recent quarterly report, 2022's EPS will likely to surpass 2021's EPS.

Disclaimer: Invest based on your own judgement.

Good 2nd results. Cumulative EPS up to 2nd quarter is 14.1 cents. With remaining 2 quarters with higher production numbers ;may be at a lower CPO price, will the 2022's EPS surpass 2021's EPS?

2 quarters EPS of 14.1 cents for a share price of 92 cents, is this stock undervalue?

FCPO price up, stock price down. Apa ini?

First quarter EPS of 5.84 cents for a stock price of RM1.20, this translates to a yield of 4.87%. How many stocks in KLSE with this kind of yield?. This is only for one quarter. With higher production figures in 2nd quarter and the good average CPO (easily above Rm6500) in April and May, what will be the estimated EPS in 2nd quarter? Based on these considerations, what will then be the qoq or yoy results comparison for 2nd quarter?

Be patient.

@Luen07, You cakap betul.

Good production numbers in April whereby average CPO price was RM6678.

@s3phiroth, Thanks.

BTW, based on the latest MHC's annual report, the following info are the positive :-

1. The management affirms that CPO price will remain at good price level for 2022.
2. Earning from power plant will likely increase as compare to last year ( equipment breakdown and MCO restrictions in 2021)
3. MHC uses organic fertilizers to reduce input cost.
4. Cash on hand + Investment is higher than the debt. Positive cash position.
5. Optimize replanting to achieve higher production.
6. In good compliance with ESG requirements.

This is a well managed company. Make your own investment judgement.

I think whether Indonesia ban crude palm oil or Palm olein, it will still boost the price of CPO. If there are less palm olein for sale to the world market, SBO and other oils demand will increase and push up the price. This will also cause the overseas refinery to increase the demand for CPO to refine into palm olein.

Does this sound logical? Please advise. Thanks.

Bplant and Cepat already crossed the all time high price. When will be MHC turn?

No worry lah.From the historical data,. 1st Q is the lowest production Q. After that keep on increase quatetly from 2Q to 4Q. Result will be getting better and better. To make money in KLSE, patience is a perquisite. Cool.

Comparing based on qoq? Palm oil fruit production is not seasonal? Hmm.........

Sorry for my minimal knowledge, may be someone can enlighten on this aspect.

1. Average CPO price in 1st Q 2021 was RM3895. Average CPO price in 1st Q 2022 was RM 6050. An increase of 55%.
2. MHC's CPO production for the corresponding period increased by 10%.
3. EPS for 1st Q 2021 was 3.5 cents, based on the results of 1. and 2. above, what will be the EPS for 1st Q 2022?
4. Month of April is coming to an end, CPO price so far has been above RM6K.

Make your own investment judgement.

Wow! FCPO above RM 6K until October 2022.

KLSE is a strange market. Considering the prolonged crisis in Ukraine and looking at the FCPO data, CPO price will likely remain high for some time. Most Plantation counters will report huge profits in 2022. This stock is undervalue, its price will rebound when common sense prevails. Make your own investment judgement.

What is equally important is whether the earning growth will be sustained after the dividend. Comparing the average CPO price of RM6000 in the 1st Quarters 2022 Vs RM3900 in the1st Quarter 2021, the 1st quarter result will be good. The average CPO price in April so far is above RM6500 and the FCPO price up to July 2022 is above RM6000, so the prospect of sustained earning growth in 2022 looks bright.

Sometimes, analysts write with ulterior motive. Most importantly, we do our home work and invest based on facts.

Dividend of 6 cents per share is okay but below expectation. However, another important consideration in investment is the stock price appreciation, which will be dependent on the company's performance. MHC's performance is as follows:
1. P/E ratio:5.6
2.DY :5.0
3. ROE : 14.7
4. CAGR revenue : 11.9
5. CAGR PAT : 36.

How many companies in KLSE have such solid results? If you do identify such companies, would appreciate it if you could share the info here. Thank you.

It can be risky if an investment is based on pieces of not so positive news here and there. One should look at the whole picture. March's average CPO price so far still a record in Malaysian history. 1st quarter results for planters will be fantastic. Even if the average CPO price drops to 4000-5000, still a lot of profits for planters.

Cepat will announce dividend in 2 weeks time, I put my bet that it will not disappoint! It will be much better than earning the poor FD interest rate. If you dabble for short term gain, then it is a different ball game.

For plantation business, Production comparison has to be made on year to year basis and not quarter to quarter basis.

Agree with you Markgold. Look at the below chart, even if CPO price goes down to 4k-5K, plenty of profits for Cepat and MHC. The FY 2021 results validated this consideration. Most importantly, the companies are well managed. Stay cool Bro.

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?mo...

Agree with you Markgold. Look at the below chart, even if CPO price goes down to 4k-5K, plenty of profits for Cepat and MHC. The FY 2021 results validated this consideration. Most importantly, the companies are well managed. Stay cool Bro.

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=3M

@joerakmo, Thanks for your info. Much appreciated.

In April 2021, MHC declared interim and special dividends for a total of 4 cents based on 2020"s EPS of 6.76 cents ( 60% of 2020's earning), I hope in April 2022, MHC can declare dividend of 10-12 cents based on 2021's EPS of 21,36 cents. Possible?

For FY 2020, MHC's EPS was 6.76 cents and the dividend payout was 4 cents.

For FY2021, MHC's EPS was 21.36 cents, what will be the dividend payout in the April's announcement? hmm...

@investor2021trading, Is the production cost of RM2200/ton for CPO or FFB? Please also take note that MHC's production figures included Cepat numbers.

MHC and Cepat have powers plant selling electricity, will they be getting higher sale price for their electricity considering the current high price of oil and gas? Anyone can enlighten on this ?

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=3M

1. Strong average CPO price in January and February 2021.
2. The average CPO price for March so far has been fantastic.
3. It seems like high CPO price will be sustained for some time. Metaphorically, you cannot slow down a speeding train immediately.
4. If the average CPO price is sustained at even RM 4000-5000 over the next 1-2 quarters, FY 2022 results will be good.
5. Both MHC and Cepat are well managed companies in good time or bad time.

Make your own judgement on investment.

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=3M

1. Strong average CPO price in January and February 2021.
2. The average CPO price for March so far has been fantastic.
3. It seems like high CPO price will be sustained for some time. Metaphorically, you cannot slow down a speeding train immediately.
4. If the average CPO price is sustained at even RM 4000-5000 over the next 1-2 quarters, FY 2022 results will be good.
5. Cepat is a well managed company in good time or bad time.

Make your own judgement on investment.

Both MHC and Cepat ( MHC owns 38.5% of Cepat) announced good production figures in February 2022 as compared to February 2021. Based on the strong average CPO price, the first quarter result will be great. Looking forward to hearing the announcement of dividend in early April.

Hi guys, No worry about price down over the past few days lah. By early April Cepat will announce the dividend, Personally, I expect at least 8 cents.

Back to basics of investing. February production figures are out. Comparing them to the corresponding period in 2021 ( February 2021), the results are good:
1. FFB production increased by 13%
2. CPO production increased by 72%
3. Palm Kernel production increased by 70%.

In February 2021, Average CPO price was RM3895, In February 2022, average CPO price was RM5930, this represented an increase of 52%.

For the first eight days of March 2022, CPO prices are record high ( 6800- 8000).


Based on the above info, you can make your own judgement on the profit level for the first quarter of 2022. Is the current price a fair valuation?

OK. Thanks

@Scjm, Learning something new. Thank you very much.

Where did you get the data of RM14,20 and it happened in which year?

OK. Thanks

Thanks.

@scjm, what is 200MA? All time high 14,20 or 1.42?

@Scjm. Thanks for your reply. Wishing you have much success in your investment.

@Scjm, The last time you told me Bo Pian. Good to see that you are coming back to this chat. Cheers.

Thanks John.

Sabar Bro.

By next week, the 4th quarter 2021 results will be out. Exciting time indeed.

On the outlook for 2022,he said he is not too pessimist and add that this is very bullish.

@Johnzhang, Thanks for the good analysis.

Waiting for the attractive dividend in April.

Comparing production date and CPO price for the corresponding period in January:

1. CPO production : An increase of 23% in January 2022 as compared to January 2021

2. Average CPO monthly price: January 2022 was RM5354 as compared to January 2021 was RM3748. An increase of 43%

Based on this positive development, is the current share price a fair valuation? Make your own judgement on investment.

In financial year 2020, total EPS was about 5 cents and the company declared dividend on 6th April 2021 for 2.5 cents (50% of EPS).

For financial year 2021, the estimated total EPS will be more than13 cents, if using 2020's payout as a basis, how much will be the dividend? Would the payout ratio be more than 50%?

For the month of January 2022 until now, CPO price remains above 5K.

2021's financial results will be announced by end February 2022.

Looking forward to the early April 2022's announcement on dividend.

EPS 3rd quarters was 3.76 cents. Power plant back to full operation after end August plus better CPO price in 4th quarters as compared to 3rd quarters ( roughly 15%). Production figures were also high in the month of October and November when CPO stay above 5K.

Will the EPS for 4th quarters higher than 4 cents?

https://bepi.mpob.gov.my/admin2/price_local_daily_view_cpo_msia.php?more=Y&jenis=1Y&tahun=2021

Last quarters (October -Decemberm 2021 ) CPO price was above 5K. Make your own judgement on the 4th quarters result.