Oracle_of_Delphi

Oracle_of_Delphi | Joined since 2015-04-26

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2021-07-07 01:09 | Report Abuse

The reason Genetec is up so much is because the EV contract that they won is from non other than Tesla, hence the hype. Genetec has spent the last few years in qualification stage to become Tesla's tier-1 supplier, and their recent contract wins is for building the machines for Tesla's new battery assembly line. There were whispers in the market of Genetec's "new customer" but nobody knew who it was, that was until CIMB held a conference with analysts and fund managers recently with new info. Not surprisingly, institutionals have been snapping up the shares like hotcakes fresh out the oven. Even the guys at Greatech were surprised with Genetec's sudden emergence as a Tesla supplier. Hahaha

The RM42m you see in the announcement is only a small part for now, as the market expects that Genetec will get further contracts for building up more battery assembly lines in other Gigafactories. Tesla really like building their own batteries, don't they? That's why valuations have been soaring driving the price up even further.

Haih, institutions should really share info like this to retailers. So kesian you all scratching your heads and trying to read charts.

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2015-10-03 17:08 | Report Abuse

tanlungshen, the provider of expletives from one forum thread to another. His critical analysis on the management always deliver new investment insights everyday =)

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2015-09-04 11:42 | Report Abuse

Well, KBA did confirm that there is around 72 to 73 sens per share currently sitting in the trust account right now during the Q&A. If anything, the share right now is currently undervalued.

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2015-09-03 23:50 | Report Abuse

Actually its was like this:

19 mmbl extra if calculate using 25% - 35% recovery rate (thats the average historical recovery rate for oilfields in that area. Cliq used 20.7% to calculate 39mmbl)
70 mmbl possible extra (3p) if they dig deeper than 1000m
90 mmbl if they participate in oilfields adjacent to the cliq oilfields (which are nearing their end of contracts.

I think that the company can only really count on that 19mmbl extra and maybe a portion of that 70 mmbl as well. That other 90 mmbl sounds like a long shot.

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2015-09-03 23:31 | Report Abuse

In his presentation, Ahmad Ziyad gave a rough timeline of events that goes like this (if i remember correctly):

KASE listing in Oct
EGM sometime in mid-Nov
Completion of QA around late Dec or early Jan

He also presented some info on upside potential of the Kazakhstan oilfields. Apparently, they believe there is more oil than the 39 mmbl surveyed earlier.

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2015-06-23 17:03 | Report Abuse

What investors should be looking at is whether:

1. Was the oil field bought at a reasonable price (I think so, they somewhat took advantage of the oil price dip at the end of 2014, didn't they? lucky perhaps?)
2. Is Cliq's developement plan a good one?
3. Will all the above result in profit?

In any case, I don't think there is a problem with the current production amount (1,400 bbl/d from 90 wells), considering what Cliq is doing is to buy a somewhat under-developed oil field and try to develop it further.

Cliq's plan to implement polymer injection is spot on considering that EOR methods have been known to work well with sandstone formations such as the field that Cliq bought. Added with the plan to add more wells, Ziyad mentions a target of 7,500bbld in two years. Ambitious? perhaps. IMHO, it might not go that high, but a tripling of flow rates to around 4,000, maybe 5,000 bbld should not be too difficult to reach in two years. With other EOR methods used until 2031 (end of subsoil use contract), they should be able to recover a good amount of all that oil.

All their other development plans are also in the view of reducing cost. I guess in the end, if you think they can pull it off, then you'd be looking at an enterprise value like the one i calculated above, or more. Otherwise, the current market price should be about fair (money in piggy bank remember?).

Stock

2015-06-23 02:55 | Report Abuse

The valuation of an e&p company such as Cliq should not be calculated on the production per day capacity (700 bbld), that would be misleading. Rather, Cliq's share of 2P (proven & probable) reserves (of around 21mbbl) should be used instead.

A simple (Pluck frm sky)example:
REVENUE
1 barrel of oil (URALS) would fetch revenue of USD65.

COST
Cost to Cliq to produce 1 barrel is:
Cost of purchase from vendor is USD 5.85
Cost of extraction (on shore) USD 14.00
Cost of transportation to oil pipeline USD 5
misc cost USD 10
tax to govt USD 20
Total cost USD 55-ish

Profit per barrel would then be USD 10 per barrel

Multply this with the amount of oil (21mbbl) and you get about USD 210M (about RM 770m)in valuation for Cliq (ignoring discounting). Take RM770m and divide with the number of outstanding shares...hahahahha