dunknow - It depends on whether if that support is a strong support. If 0.30 is a strong support which has been breached, I will think twice to accumulate more when it was first breached unless there is strong volume support at 0.295. I would probably also evaluate the situation in the light of the overall market's sentiment too. However, if the support at 0.295 proves strong over a few trading session, I may take the risk to consider accumulating but still be prepared to cut loss at 0.28.

So, there is really no fixed rule to point towards accumulation. If the overall market sentiment is weak with lots of uncertainties in the air, I would probably stay conservative and look for signs of sellers exhaustion before considering taking further position in the stock.

And I think Duit made a good point in looking for stocks that has been heavily sold down but with good FA attached to it. Investing in companies with poor FA under the current volatile market scenario poses a high risk as any negative external shocks to the economic and political climate will generate another round of sell down on these stocks. I am not suggesting MUI has poor FA as I have not really looked at its FA. So I am not in a position to comment on the FA of MUI. But those are the general approach I would take.kj


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Posted by dunknow > Jan 6, 2015 10:56 AM
hi Profitman,can you please help me on this Question : If the price fall in between last support & stop loss level,it's advisable to collect ?For example,the MUI last support is 0.300,while stop loss is 0.280,& it's trading around 0.295...thanks in advance,brother Profitman

Dunknow, tsy88 - thank you for your understanding. Appreciate it greatly.

Dunknow - no problem there. Know you did not rush me for the response. Don't worry, I know you meant well.

Duit - I am elated you shared your views. Please feel free to share them here and please please please do not delete them. These are invaluable information which are not taught in universities or in MBAs courses as these are learnings from your experiences and nothing beats that.

Don't worry about offending us. Nothing offends us as every one looks at things differently and all of us can be right in our own ways. We respect every ones' opinions and views. So, no worries there. You made some very good points there and I am sure it benefits a lot of us and it is also a timely refresher for us too. Thank you for your generosity in sharing.

By the way, always great to see you here, Duit.

Dunknow/tsy88 - sorry, I have been extremely busy this past week. But I did saw Dunknow's enquiry. I will reply over the weekend. Real sorry.

Dear All, thank you for all the new year wishes. Sorry for this belated thank you note as I have been extremely busy with work. Since TCB was launched last year, all you good people have contributed positively here which we are sure have benefited all. Thank you for that. We look forward to 2015 and we wish everyone a profitable year in the market beginning throughout 2015.

skyhawk, rchi, inwest88, sunflower22 - thanks and Merry Christmas & a Happy New Year to u good people too!

Connie - no virus but have been extremely busy. Still, I remember I have to drop by to wish you especially, Merry Christmas! ...hahaha....

Connie & all - Merry Christmas

Dear All, Merry Christmas.

tsy88, Dunknow and all - Good Morning

Dunknow - Theoretically, if you have holding power for that long, 5yrs as per your example, the company should be able to weather any crash BUT only if its a good company with a good management team running it and there are also other criteria that you need to assess for such a long term investment. A lot also depends on your investment strategy. I agree to that opinion only for selected companies but at the same time, I am wary also of the fact that the modern world is in a very dynamic environment.

Things changes in a split second, be it politically or economically, while new technology and innovations are shortening products' life cycle. Exchange rates can undergo fluctuations and inflation can impact the time value of money. So, I will be very selective in the stocks that I want to stay invested that long. You may be looking primarily at defensive stocks. History has taught us that even the oldest,largest and well known company can go under and fold up. Another consideration to bear in mind is that to hold a stock for 5 years will be exposing us to 5 years of political and economic risk. For this reason alone, you need to be very selective in the company. I will discount speculative stocks from this long term holding list.

How well a company survive an economic crisis depends, among other factors, its management team, the business segment it is competing in and its financial strength. At the end of the day, it depends on your investment strategy, your personal assessment of the future economic outlook and your financial muscle. There is always a holding cost and an opportunity cost with such a long term investment.

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Posted by Dunknow > Dec 14, 2014 10:12 AM

Good morning, profitman....appreciate your view on this....current situation is so weak that which remind me of 1998 crash....still holding some stock, although has been either release capital or cut loss....it seem likes the bear is getting stronger each day, while the bull is resting like no tmr ; (
I read an articles stated that if we have the holding power for at least 5 years, it should be able weather any crash and it might b better as the company able to sustain during crash...do u agree in this, profitman bro?thanks

tsy88 - wow, thats hypoglycaemic. Very low sugar level you have there. Do take care. Health is wealth too.

Good morning all

Hi Duit, you too have a great evening. Great to hear from you.

Dunknow - The guarantee payback only applies to SPAC companies. This is one of the condition for listing. The SPAC need to secure a QA within a specified time frame failing which they will need to refund accordingly. Non SPAC companies are governed by the Companies Act and it also depends on the company's board depending on the reason for the de-listing. If the company is going under, the shareholders will hardly get anything back.

Yes, the KLCI underwent a technical rebound today. It still needs to clear its resistance of 1716 before it can have any meaningful recovery.

P/S: I still owe you 1 reply to your earlier query.

lctay81 - For Cliq, the support level is at 0.605/0.61. In the stock market, sometimes logic does not rule because of human emotions. This is the norm especially in a bearish market when all is doom and gloom. In Cliq's case, it could be sold below 15 sen for various reasons. The investor may not be aware of the 65 sen guarantee pay back and in a panic sell, sells below 15 sen. Or the investor may be aware but need to release funds to recoup cash from the market. Or the investor may not want to wait to see if they can secure a QA because of the very volatile economic climate and stock market sentiment. Or the investor do not want the hassle of conversion and anticipates the mother share to drop further.

These are just a handful of possible explanations. The stock market is traded by humans and humans have emotions. And emotions can defy logic sometimes. This is the reality and fact that we need to accept when trading the stock market. But over time, as emotions subside, logic will prevail and you will see the price move back up to its logical level unless there is a fundamental change in the company.

Hope that answers your question.

jasonor - during volatile times like this, it is best to be conservative and either hold all in cash or majority in cash. There are still shifting dynamics in the economic environment but you can expect low oil price to be the mainstay in the short term to medium term.

The trading strategy can vary from individual to individual. Some may like to accumulate stocks that has been heavily sold down in which case you will need to have a medium to long term outlook on the stock as well as holding power. The aggressive high risk traders, may want to trade the dips and ups of the stocks and there also those who trade the technical rebound of stocks. This can be a high risk trade that requires strict discipline and the need to take quick profits or losses. Then with the conservative traders, holding cash would be the ideal strategy to wait out the volatile period.

I am more inclined to the conservative approach as the market sentiment is very weak and bearish. Any upside is limited due to the prevailing fear factor amongst investors where any increase in price will be subjected to profit taking or loss cutting. On the flip side, the depressed prices may also offer an opportunity for investors to accumulate some stocks in which case I would strongly advocate some research into the company's growth prospects and its fundamentals before jumping in as well as a technical analysis for potential entry points.

tsy88, Dunknow and all, Good Morning.

Dunknow, under such circumstances, we usually re-assess the TA again. 1.08 could be the new support level. Yes, we do need to re-establish the support and resistance level and along with it, re-assess the volume and other criteria. If a stock has bounced back to 1.13, it could be a technical rebound and upon further weakness, the stock can go back down to 1.08 again. Or it can also be a recovery in the stock. So, in a volatile market, the TA needs to be constantly reviewed. Changes in the stock market climate can render the previous TA readings invalid.

NickyBoy - BTM:

Yes it is in an oversold position but do note that in a bearish market, oversold may not be very meaningful. It has broken down from its strong support at 0.20 as well as its support base at 0.18. Any technical rebound would confront the gap resistance of 0.175/0.18 but the stronger resistance lie at 0.20. You may use these levels as guides. If it trends lower, the next TP will be at 0.11.

tsy88/Dunknow: no one can tell how long the KLSE volatility can last. It could take a while for the market to stabilize. The low oil price will impact either way on the economy. Some sectors will benefit while others may suffer. So, this is the period where the whole market re-adjust to this new scenario and find a new footing under the current changed environment of low oil price. The stock market is also undergoing a re-adjustment period and is not helped by the fact that the market is correcting by more than 10 points on most days. This has consequences on margin calls and even forced selling. However, there could be opportunities in the market as many stocks have come down in prices and are now heading to a more reasonable level of valuation. But do be cautious as we are not out of the woods yet.

tsy88, Dunknow and all, Good morning.

rashidiesukarna: Nicorp:

This is a non-trending, sideway trading stock. It is in a rectangle trading pattern with a resistance at 0.145 and a support line at 0.11. It will probably remain in this range unless there is a catalyst to propel it above its resistance.

TraderR88: tmclife:

It is bearish since it hit the high of 0.67 on 26/9 although it did undergo a technical rebound in late Oct. It has broken down from its strong support base at 0.475 and is now testing the 0.45 support. A break down from 0.45 will send it to 0.425/0.43. Immediate resistance is at 0.475 and subsequently at 0.525.

There is still a lot of weakness in this stock and if you are thinking of accumulating more, you might want to monitor for the selling pressure to ease further before moving in.

...hahaha.... Duit, after I saved her, you will come to save both of us!

connie, ....hahaha..... if you are, the FIRST person you see will be me! Holiday is still some time to go. I have wound down most of my stock position and looking for dips in the market.

Connie, yeah, no virus today. ...haha.. Please trade cautiously. I see limited upside to most stocks.

TM, thanks for constantly sharing your KLCI analysis. I have been a keen follower of it.

Connie and all, Good morning.

tsy88, Dunknow and all - Good morning and please trade cautiously. I personally believe that the upside of most stocks could be limited.

Connie - good evening.

duit - thanks for your advise. Appreciate it. Hope you are in the best of health too.

Angie80 - Westport:

Broke out from its descending triangle on 18/11 to hit a high of 3.50. Since then, it is consolidating and although it formed a bullish engulfing candle on 28/11, it may not have the strength to sustain an upward push as it was formed on low volume and it bullishness is subject to confirmation. It has broken down from its gap support of 3.27/3.28. It now has immediate support at 3.23 with resistance at 3.50. Any further break down from 3.23 with volume will signal a further weakness in the stock.

rob_z3_man: Novamsc:

In the medium term, it is bullish but in the short term, you can expect some consolidation to take place. It formed a dark cloud on 27/11 suggesting a consolidation phase to set in. Strong support lies at 0.155 and you may want to consider exiting if this support is broken. Immediate resistance is at 0.195 and if broken will re-test the resistance of 0.215.

Dunknow, yes, that is a very good question. There are indeed a lot of theoretical facts in the internet and in books on this subject. However, in reality, it is very difficult to forecast a crash not even from a TA perspective. But we can analyse the TA of the index just like how we analyse the individual stocks to look out for any signs of potential reversal.

However, do bear in mind that economic policies can be fine tuned and twitched to jump start a stalling or declining economy, thereby preventing further declines in the stock market and possibly averting a crash in the short to medium term. So, it is really not easy to forecast a crash.

If you look up the definition of a market crash, you will understand that it is the result of a culmination of events which can result from an economic crisis, a catastrophic event(s) or the collapse of some speculative bubbles. Just to forecast an economic crisis alone is difficult as the economy is influenced by a multi-factorial of factors. Any crisis or events can just spark off a total loss of confidence in the economy and cause a run on the stock market in an instant.

So, what does all this mean to traders like us? Are we doomed that we are unable to forecast a crash? No, we are not doomed. We can't influence the market and we do not have control over it but we can influence and control our trading. This is where we come back to the trading plan that we have been advocating all along. And to add, you may want to have a shorter time frame for trading if you are concern about an imminent crash. Also not forgetting to avoid over trading with too many stocks.

You will realize by now that there is really no holy grail in stock trading.

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Posted by Dunknow > Nov 22, 2014 07:38 AM | Report Abuse

I have one question on symptom of market crash....yeah,based on theoritical facts,yes we can read/find fact from internet...but in TA term & real life,how can we see the symptom of market crash?Can any one assist me in this?

Dunknow - sorry for the delay in EPMB:

EPMB does not have the momentum to sustain a bullish run. It was sold down with every attempt to scale higher. The bearish harami of 25/11 is a precursor to the consolidation phase that followed. This fact is reinforced by the bearish price/rsi divergence on the daily chart. It is currently sitting on its strong support at 0.85. A break down from this support level would indicate further weakness in the stock when in all likelihood, it will fill the gap support of 0.815/0.835. You may want to consider exiting if 0.85 is broken down with volume. Currently, it needs to break the psychological resistance of 0.90 to scale higher.

rashidiesukarna:

eah:
It is now consolidating within a range between 0.14 and 0.155. It has found a support base at 0.12 but will need to clear the strong resistance at 0.17 in order to re-test the high of 0.195.

pworth:
It has broken out from its downtrend line but after hitting a high of 0.285, it was sold down to a low of 0.175. It is now consolidating after the technical rebound with an immediate support at 0.20. Strong resistance is expected at 0.23. It could be trading side ways in the coming trading sessions.

michaelwoo - WCT:

Bearish. It broke an important support level at 1.958. If the selling continues, it will be heading to 1.86. Immediate resistance is at 2.05. There is still a lot of weakness in the stock.

dextronium - Prestar:

This stock is still on a downtrend. Its medium term outlook remains bearish. It seems to have found a baseline support at 0.515 at the moment. If broken, the next meaningful support is at 0.475. Moving forward, it will face an immediate resistance at 0.54 and it needs to fill the gap resistance of 0.545/0.555.

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Posted by dextronium > Nov 19, 2014 01:33 PM

Good afternoon everybody
Can anybody help out with the TA of Prestar? The price has been mostly static and downtrend since it hit the highest point at 70+sen months ago...Thanks in advance.

Connie & all - good afternoon.

Connie - enjoy your lunch. Sandwich again? ...hehehe...

tsy88 - please feel free to ask anything that you wish. There is no such thing as a silly or stupid question. We constantly learn from each other all the time as all of us have different knowledge and skills and all of us comes from different background. By asking, we learn from each other. So, please feel free to ask.

bS1688 - Kindly refer to http://tcb-sifs.blogspot.com/ for Insas.

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Posted by Bs1688 > Nov 19, 2014 05:51 PM

Dear TCB, please read Insas chart , tqvm.

Connie & all - good afternoon.

Connie, glad you still like that pinky song! ...hahaha...

Connie & all - good morning!

Inwest88, tsy88, dunknow, sunflower22 and all - Good morning & profitable trading!

michaelwoo - TDEX:

Uptrend still intact but is facing stiff resistance at 0.245. If it is able to break 0.245, it will resume its uptrend further. It should enjoy good immediate support at 0.225.

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Posted by michaelwoo > Nov 17, 2014 09:49 AM

Dear TCB - Morning. Need your TA on TDEX. TQVM.

Yeah, welcome back Duit. Really good to see you hear. Thanks for popping by.

Inwest88, tsy88, Dunknow, aska123, excel, Duit & all - good morning

aska123 - KNM:

On a downtrend. If the current low of 0.645 is broken down, it will trend towards 0.615. It faces a strong immediate resistance at 0.69. If you are thinking of bottom fishing, you may want to wait for the selling pressure to ease off first as the stock is still very weak and any price recovery could be met with traders' liquidation. But in the event that you want to take the risk, do set your stop loss price.

excel - LBAlum:

Bearish after breaking down from its uptrend line. It is currently consolidating sideways with an immediate support at 0.65. For the moment, it has found a bottom at 0.595. It needs to overcome its immediate resistance of 0.69 for any potential upward movement. You may want to set a stop loss at 0.64 should 0.65 be broken on volume.

taka - SKPetro:

Remains bearish. Although it is trading sideways recently, it may not be out of the woods yet. Immediate resistance is at 3.03.

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Reading on Nov 9, 2014 05:55 PM :

It is bearish. Immediate resistance = 3.25. Selling pressure is still strong and the selling may not be over just yet. It is currently trading at one of its tp of 3.09. If it breaks down from here, the next tp is 2.96.