but,brothers who screwed up the company aldy kicked away by the board wo.

asset rich company.if we calculated benalec's assets one by one(excluded fixed asset):

390 acre landbank(melaka)=assume RM30 psf,should worth RM509m.

19 shop lots(melaka)=assume RM250 psf,should worth RM46.72m

300 acre lanbank to be reclaim(melaka)=assume RM30 psf,should worth RM392m

*2334 acre(tanjung piai,to be reclaim in 10-15 year)=assume RM30 psf,should worth RM3.05billion.
with 20% margin,benalec should earn RM600m profit or asset worth.

*1122 acre(pengerang,to be reclaim in 10 year)=assume RM50 psf(land price in pengerang is much higher),should worth RM 2.44billion.
with 20% margin,benalec should earn RM488m profit or asset worth.

*67% of total reclaimed acre,which is after deduct 21% interest own by Crown Prince of johor,Tunku Ismail Idris,9% own by Daing A Malek and 3% own by johor government.

RM509m
+ RM392m
+ RM46.72m
+ RM600m
+ RM488m
=RM2.035billion

my conclusion:benalec is an very valuable company,if you decide to buy at current price,then you should not sell it with 20-30% return,cos at RM2.035b.SOP of its reclaimation business alone should worth RM2.5 per share.if we add on other valuable asset like 93 vessel fleet,business value,shipyard etc,SOP might be above RM3.

the major risk is,benalec had to pump in billions of capital into tanjung piai and pengerang project's project for next 10-15year.so if they not able to find suitable investor for reclaimed land,then cash flow be tight in long term.

however,due to benalec only sell at 54cen,risk to reward is very attractive.with downside of only 20-25% and upside of few hundred %.

personally,i wil only buy when benalec break 62.5cen,which is the major resistance to curb further rally.

sell all at rm1.31

waiting.

haha,thanks,i keep quite because many speculator is here for fast money,nobody really care about intrinsic valuation and how the business work,it is meaningless to share my hard work now.

zoombooms,i am still on board la,as i said before,notion should worth RM1.30-1.80,so i will only sell beyond RM1.30,even i do not expect it will hit my target anytime soon,might only happen at 2018,cos johor venture will only bear fruit from 2018 onward.

however,i wanted to remind all of you that many hot money had flow into notion just because syndicate are trying to push up warrant.when they clear warrant position,notion might correction,i expect this going to happen before MAY.

finally break RM1;)

comcorp syndicate is good,they know how to drive speculators out of the game.

look today,up to 96.5cen but close at 93cen,strongly suggest no contra for this counter.buy and hold.

if i can buy only one counter in march,i'll choose comcorp.

should climb above rm1.30 soon.

downside should limited at 10%,support by stronger fundamental and prospect,upside should work itself.

profit taking.

buy some at 88cen,target RM1.50 within 12month.

february ffb production rise 36.5% y-o-y,cpo production rise 46.38% y-o-y,pko production rise 54% y-o-y.

excellent figure.

able to get some at 0.8.tomorrow should able to buy more at lower price,due to fcpo drop again.

crazy,EPS of 1.29cen,all division return to black.next undervalue gem?

babyTA,i will not suggest you to buy WA cos will expire within 3 month time,and the conversion price was RM1,which is quite difficult to break within short term.

and i also not suggest you to buy notion at above 90cen,cos risk and reward is not attractive,but if went down to below 80cen again,you can consider to buy and keep for 1-2 year.

february is important month to notion,where 1st q report,annual report and AGM will take place.i'd made some forecast for 1st Q,which included:

Revenue:RM65-75m
Ebitda:RM16.2-18.7m
Depreciation:RM7-8m
Net Profit:RM7-9m
EPS:2.61-3.35cen

if i was right,we shall see notion at RM1 mark within next 28 days.
02/02/2017 00:50

******

revenue(RM68.07m) and ebitda(RM17.6m) within my expectation,but depreciation(RM8.51m) was higher than expection,net profit(RM6.4m) and EPS(2.4cen) also slightly lower.

generally,it is still a good result but i don think sufficient to drive notion to beyond RM1,notion had to make more profit in comings quarters.

"sell on rumors buy on fact" should apply to cepat.

anyway,good time to accumulate,

good result actually,very firm and steady,net cash increase to RM29m or 16.38cen per share,prospect is promising.

bear in mind that the contribution from new de-tariffication system will kicked in by 2nd half,and the new system will bring in another major recurring income to rexit.so,new catalyst is just around the corner,rexit should continue goes up steadily,i don think there is any issue to surpass 80cen in near term.

haha,new share sell at 14cen also nobody want to buy,end up with PP call off,now telling people the share is worth 50cen.i am wondering how many share he had been stuck.

nonsense.

haha,even profit grow by 100% in 2017,PUC still trading at more than 40x PE.

further more,solar PV business was on downtrend now due to over supply issue.beware,take TEKSENG as reference.

malaysia's palm oil mill is difficult to profit at the moment,due to taxes disadvantage to indonesia,most of the millers was suffer losses now,KUB should face the same fortune as they do not own sufficient estate to support mills operation,but had to purchase FFB from others,so i don think new mill will contribute positively to their result even they can achieve RM130m revenue.

thanks for sharing.

AGM at 23 feb,the 1st Q result shall release after AGM.

RM2.22?no no,i do not think it should worth that much,we can buy much cheaper O&G counters in open market,why go for serbadk dynamic?

and when you talk about PE of 10x,it is based on annualised FY 2016 earning,which can be "pump" before listing,not accurate at all.

within 6-12month time,we shall see profit started to drop.

so,just AVOID.

heard vietnam factory was in big trouble now due to serious pollution issue .better careful,monitor their revenue trend in coming quarter,if could not stay above RM110-120m,time to go.

harry teo?haha,heard a lot of bad comment about this guy.

JAG?haha!

agreed.

february is important month to notion,where 1st q report,annual report and AGM will take place.i'd made some forecast for 1st Q,which included:

Revenue:RM65-75m
Ebitda:RM16.2-18.7m
Depreciation:RM7-8m
Net Profit:RM7-9m
EPS:2.61-3.35cen

if i was right,we shall see notion at RM1 mark within next 28 days.

based on MPI's result released today,i am quite confident that when 1st q result release on February,notion gonna surprise most of us.i shall talk more in early February as i am prepare for new year now.

guys,happy chinese new year ya:)

i don think one-off gain should be highlighted,since it wont repeated in future,not to said it is only RM3.5m.

so,it is meaningless to calculated PE by using one-off gain,cos it is not sustainable.

i've been work so hard to study and monitor notion for the past 15 month,and i am strongly believe that we had very good reasons to be optimistic on notion's prospect,even after recent rally,cos the long-term rally might just started,and the valuation still very cheap in term of EBITDA.

val-elta,i believe you had misunderstanding the 4rd q profit,cos when TCF repay RM3.7m to notion,it does not affect P&L statement,purely affect B&L,just like you don recognize extra profit when you collect receivable from customer,you just get back what you deserved to get.

so,there is no one-off gain in 4rd q result like what you claimed,RM 4.6m profit is fully derived from business operation,it is real profit.

and you had to really really bear in mind that NP of FY2016 was only RM5.4m,but EBITDA was almost 12x higher at RM63m.that means notion's operation is very profitable,but is currently "hidden" by high level of depreciation charge.you wont notice that if you too focus on EPS,which is derived after deduct every cash and non-cash items.

however,since the plant & machinery is 70-75% depreciated,depreciation charge should reduce further going forward,and then extra EBITDA portion will translate into NP,i estimate in FY 2017,reduce in depreciation charge alone should bring in additional 1.5-2 cen EPS to notion.

in FY2016,depreciation charge was RM34m,this is very abnormal to a company which only generated RM230m revenue a year,but is understandable given notion had spend few hundred million in 2011-2012 to expand their capacity.

unless notion spend more than RM50m capex per year going forward,otherwise we should see the depreciation charge continue to decrease and normalized to RM18-20m in 2-3 year time.that means,additional RM14-16m will be recognize at Net Profit or EPS level each year,not to said if core business bring in another RM20-25m NP(which is quite conservative i believe).

for your information,notion only intent to spend capex of RM25m p.a for next two year.

so,if you do believe EPS of 3 cen is enough for notion to break RM1,then better don simply conclude that RM1 is premature target,cos it can achieve anytime soon and most importantly,it is fundamentally driven.

it is always good to have argument,atless investors can hear different story.

to me,the director fees seems high mainly due to FY2016 result is not that good.but,if notion's able to achieve EBITDA of RM68-72m,or NP of RM25-30m in FY2017,do you mind directors is paid with RM5-6m salaries per annum?i dont,unless salaries rise significantly going forward.

about new business risk,as you can see after failure in silver business,notion became much cautious in new venture,they invested only less than RM2m in smartphone business,so even the venture is fail,financial impact is negligible .

when talk about HDD,yes,the market is contracting,but notion aldy secure new orders from new customer,so it is more likely that HDD segment still able to grow,atless in coming 1-2 year,not to forget the automotive parts business is grow strongly,management do expect auto business to grow 30% this year,so i do believe there is no issue in growth driver.

about margin issue,if you do notice,automotive business aldy contribute 30% of revenue at FY 2016,while SLR only contribute 21%,if auto business's margin is poor,notion will never achieve RM 63m EBITDA in FY 2016,so i do think auto business able to achieve reasonable margin,even is comparable with SLR.

in fact,the basic demand in SLR segment still strong,even consumer demand is bottoming,but you wont expect commercial photographer to take photo by using smartphone isn't?

forex,yes,it is a major beta,so if you expect RM to strengthen to RM3.5-3.8 level this year,then you should probably avoid notion and any export company.but that is not what i thought,i do not believe RM will strengthen significantly under trump's leadership and normalization of US rate,not to said malaysia might cut OPR further.

when you talk about business,risk is always there,i am positive not because forgot the risk,but positive after analyze all the risk and opportunities,then choose to be positive.

i might be right or wrong,and time will tell.

brain,about the RM1.3-1.8 valuation,it is supported by strong EBITDA and equal to 5-7x of EBITDA,i think this is very reasonable valuation,quite conservative indeed,cos if you compare with other peers,5-7x is actually at the lower range of normal valuation.

it might looks too good,but it is true,RM1.3-1.8 is fundamentally supported pricing,unless notion's fundamental deteriorate going forward,otherwise i'll still stick on my view and valuation.

nice observation blackout87,thats why i still believe notion is very undervalue,i cant find another company which is traded at less than 3x of expected EBITDA.
as for inventory issues,i notice notion's inventory level keep falling for last two year,i believe this is due to management's strategy to reduce inventory level,in order to reduce wastage and write-off.
as at 30.9.2016,inventory already reduced to RM33m.at current level,it is not likely to write-off another RM9.2m again in FY2017,so the write-off amount should reduce significantly going forward.

if excluded RM10m one-off deferred tax expenses,FY2016 EBITDA will be RM63m,i predict EBITDA for FY2017 will increase further to RM68-72m due to strong orders from automotive division and stronger USD.

if we used 5-7x EBITDA as fair valuation,notion's market cap could potentially grow to RM350-490m after one year,if coming results fit my expectation.if you willing to spend more time to study on notion's details,i believe you will very optimistic toward the company prospect like i do.

haha!means management of notion able to control flood,forex movement,and industry downturn,just to work for them?

i really don know whether should laugh or cry when saw such comment@@

Mr.Thoo re-emerge as substantial shareholder again,even at higher price.
i remember when he sell shares 2 years ago,he promised he'll come back,now he honor the promise,i take it as good sign as he is willing to buy more share at near to 70cen per pieces.

the RM9.03m should recognise as REVENUE,not PROFIT,cos digistar will incur cost by own and operate Malaysian National Technology Advancement Centre,for example,staff cost,mintainance cost,and interest cost.

more importantly,digistar only hold 40% stake in Indera Persada,means their only entitle for 40% profit.

normally,business up-cycle could take atless 2-3year,if not longer.

as the case of notion,their had suffer down-cycle for last 5 year,and based on current indicators,like business progress,financial result and financial status,i do believe the new business up-cycle was just started,so the uptrend will continue for coming years even it might take slower pace,unless next month result is much above expectation and TP revise up again by IB.

personally,i think notion still quite undervalue even after recent rally,cos even at 70cen,it is only trading at expected DY of 4.3%-5.7%,and market cap/EBITDA of 3.5x,still one of the lowest(if not lowest) among 900++ listed company.

notion need no hedging to protect their profit at the moment,even if forex retreat to neutral level(like RM4-4.1),EBITDA and cash flow will remain strong going forward.

not to forget donald trump will become US president after 10 day,he intent to normalize US rate sooner,this should be a very significant factor to support USD,since US only at very early stage of normalization,should rise interest rate 2-3 time P.A for 2017 and 2018.

i will be surprise if notion could not climb above 80cen in 2017,based on its improving results,cash flow,and dividend.

10%-20% upside?val-elta,probably you should reassess notion.

king36,i calculated the valuation myself, i cant share all here cos the list is too long,so i just list down few company which is relevant here.

MARKET CAP(as at last friday)/ EBITDA:

inari=16x
gtronic=22x(9m annualised)
mpi=3.6x(not so accurate due to its EBITDA included big portion of minority interest,and future EBITDA is expected to fall)
unisem=5.4x(9m annualised)
jcy=11.5x
dufu=3.66x(9m annualised)
kobay=5.6x
pohuat=6x(different industry)
flbhd=7.09x(different industry)
vs=7.65x
notion=3.3x

as you can see,notion had the lowest MARKET CAP/ EBITDA even after recent rally,company which is comparable to notion are MPI and dufu,but bear in mind that the EBITDA of MPI included big part of minority interest which should be excluded,so the actual valuation should between 5-6x.

for dufu,even though the valuation is only 10% higher than notion,but the fact is notion's FCF is almost 100% higher than dufu,and most importantly,dufu had stop expand for years,it is quite difficult to maintain earning growth going forward unless USD keep appreciate,but for notion,even though it is also benefited from strong USD,but it just started a new plant in johor last month,decrease in depreciation charges and elimination of hedging losses and reduces inventory write-off will also boost future earning.

so,if we used foward 1 year EBITDA as indicator,valuation of notion should atless 30% discount to dufu based on last friday prices,i foresee notion to achieve EBITDA of RM62-65m in FY2017,and RM32-36m for dufu.

at 64cen,notion's MARKET CAP/FY2016 EBITDA only stood at 3.3x,certainly one of the lowest in bursa.currently,the MARKET CAP/ EBITDA for a blue chips was between 10-20x(depends on sectors,some even higher),for small cap(manufacturers),we talk about 5-7x.

i do not know whether notion could continue going up within short term,but i do believe more upside to come in longer term,especially if 1st q 2017 result is good, or announce more dividend in coming quarters.