OMH.ASX open 1.24, high 1.26, low 1.235.
Current 1.26 (+3.28%) delayed quote

being creative.

of coz poaching speciliast from sakura or pertama ferroalloy would be the fastest way.

but i see no harm in "borrow" specialist from neighbor peers, through open communication and contract based manpower (and p n c term), just to kick start the idle furnaces.

stephen chow said money is just above our head, we jist need a chair to grab it down.

the chair here mean an idea, which required to materialize it.

OMH cannot just left the 4 furnace idle like that.
manpower or specialist can always secure woth sufficient money offer.

silicon metal is at all time high, even an outsider like me keep wonder, how long OMH going to let this opportunity window slip away.

just kick start the idle furnace, and produce something first.

do anticipate that Qr might be out on 25 Oct, based on 2018. happy weekend.

weird, i got this instead.
<504 Gateway Time-out
nginx/1.17.8>

can share the data here? the link seem like trojan horse side, lead to suspicious site

RECODA visit OCIM, SAKURA FERROALLOY AND PERTAMA FERROALLOY.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6854378267529613312?ts=1634273950547&trk=article_share_wechat

no more grey area, once QR result out.

OMH uploaded latest UOBKH research report

http://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021.10.14-UOBKH_Favourable-Supply-Demand-Dynamics-to-Support-Ferroalloy-Prices.pdf

seem like UOBKH had give a renew TP (4.21, 5.79) on OMH, can someone share the link here?

Anxiety will be reduce through knowledge of the business is all about.

https://www.udemy.com/share/10503c3@_HohyPzh2lvyGdtmvNoMFSsIVUzFbkRfQMZR1CNoElqCLBQiw4FULisaZUQJRhIzrw==/

most enter OMH stock counter based the news from the edge. their understanding is Fesi ATH price.

if i am the operator, i whack OMH down to 3.3, and would have able to collect massive cheap ticket.....as mostly retail are enter around 3.3-3.6....protect the capital, its smart move.

cannot stay stuck for too long

u all do know short seller or operator operate in grey area, in between release of qr result or some bad news.

there are limit of share price he/ she can pull down with his/her fund.

if he/she sell, and small retailer like us, keep swallow buy never throw out, he/ she actually get burn badly when the superb qr result out (coz he had less share unit).

now the big environment is driving feSi price like crazy, and u all are intimitated by this small time operator.

wow, 2 more week, result out, n u dont have OMH share, super super regret i think.

no idea, why the worry.

look forward into 1/ 3/ 6 mth period

1. is FeSi price shot down?
2. Is OMH going to make loss?
3. is China going to recover and produce more FeSi?

share price is going to self adjust to it.
important is price is discounting now, why scare of paperloss?
why not buy more? i dont understand.

that is purely emotion

as retailer who havent buy, should take chance to buy the operator cheap ticket.
you do know that post Qr, there wont be any ticket below 4.

for those who already own, just ignore him/ her operation, by the next post public holiday,
it will most probably back to uptrend.

you can never time the market.

for a momentum stock with condusive situation, its best to just hold or add when dip,
the rebound would be so quick, that you wont be able to catch it unless you are fulltime trader

another mindset would be, pre qr result out, this is the chance for you to accumulate shares at low price, and just sit and wait for fat (very fat) Aussie dollar dividend.

but to add more, one definitely know slightly more than other.

do you know how much fesi price now compare to the market update by OMH anouncement.

if you know, i think i dont need to say anything, while you are busy buying.

this is the time to see who are patience enough.
2 more week before enter the week of Qr release.

buy is easy, got money, buy la.
sell is even easy, take profit, and revisit
hold, that is the art that few master.

old news, but good read, what happen in 2018, give some sense of sales impact

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/11/19/om-sarawak-plans-rm61mil-plant

In 3Q18, OM Sarawak raised the sales of ferrosilicon by 37% to 61,179 tonnes from 44,766 tonnes in 2Q18 while the sales of manganese alloys rose by 6% to 57,097 tonnes from 53,782 tonnes during the same period.

OMH attributed the higher sales mainly to strong ferroalloy demand.

OM Sarawak has recently secured an additional 50MW, bringing total supply from Sarawak Energy Bhd (SEB) to 350MW to support its smelter’s high production rates. It is seeking an additional 100MW, which according to OMH, has been agreed in principle but is subject to the necessary approvals.

OM Sarawak has signed a 20-year fixed-escalation power tariff with SEB, which supplies green and renewable energy from its Bakun hydro-electric dam (2,400MW) and Murun dam (944MW) to energy-intensive industries in Samalaju Industrial Park. Another major dam in Baleh will generate 1,285MW when commissioned by 2025 to beef up supply to heavy industries in the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy.

With hydro-power, OMH said OM Sarawak had a competitive advantage over marginal producers in China which operate on higher costs of electricity, the main cost component in smelting operations.

“OM Sarawak has a cost advantage over current marginal suppliers, even without Chinese export duty.” China is the world’s leading producer of ferrosilicon and one of the dominant producers of manganese alloys.

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/10/07/coal-prices-are-rising-but-producers-cant-keep-up-with-demand/

list of company/investor in SCORE Sarawak
https://recoda.gov.my/our-investors/

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/04/11/cahya-mata-we-are-a-monopoly-but-anyone-can-supply-cement-in-sarawak

which is why i said CMSB easily hit1.5, and 2.0 by Q4,power from JV absolute got power

someone or some fund just swallow ~ 6700+ lot at rm4.

the one that sold today, had not idea what they are losing, its not a goreng stock, ppl look forward for the future earning,

every u bot at 4 today, next 3mth (Q4) u look bck, u will know....

its a mining industry country.
they are sensitive to commodities pricing and earning.
so they buy.

same like us, we are sensitive to CPO and oil prices, and we react.....ok, i include Freight also.

like Damien said, it is highly possible to hit OMH recorded ATH.

i only know if i dont buy today.
3 mth later, i will be deeply regret.

commodities when it rally, there is no ceiling, until the condition been removed.

dont buy now, then buy above 4 next mth.

its will hit Aus 1.5 then 2.0.

calm down and read this.

https://www.marketplace.org/2021/10/05/whats-behind-chinas-power-cuts/

its all connected. domino effect. just see which one fit to each counter

Qr will be release end of oct, just not sure which date.

OMH.ASX close at 1.16.
if OMH.KLSE close at rm3.8, convert will be ~1.24 aus.

its okay, if got dividend, we will get more, since rm is depreciate >.<

coz i think its will hit aus 2 (based on all the info i gather), should price continue rally until end 2022.

that why i looking at ATH of OMH

UOBKH REGIONAL MORNING NOTES
Tuesday , 28 September 2021

For OMH, if FeSi price
remains at its current high of about US$3,000/mt in 2022, this could result in 32% upside to
our target price of RM4.01 to RM5.30.

almost hit TP1 4.01 from UOBKH
may be before Qr out, should be able to hit/ exceed

TP2 5.30...should depend on Qr result/ dividend news/bonus issue/ result of Bryah drilling

do note the ATH OMH from current direct conversion is ~ MYR 8.00 (Aus 2.64) in june 2008

probably profit taking in KLSE and shorting in ASX.
if cant hold, how to get multi bagger

congrat all.
this is not even Qr result out.

if you sell for small profits. you are actually putting yourself on risky position, why not just sit back and enjoy the ride to big dividend, and possible bonus issue or split.

big money are made in waiting and holding, the momentum is ongoing.

i think, i will need to get back to work, to make sure i had more bonus to invest,
oil price increase...more work.... >.<......time to delete trade app ( no need to trade anymore this year) and just hold and wait to reap the fruit

incase any limit up, i come bck and cheer with all

year 2018 was a good year for OMH, and that time OMH not even expand yet and price of commodities was lower than today.

if you purely looking at share price at that time, its easily at average Aus 1.5 for about a year.

today, with all the advantage on hydropower, china policy, expansion done (left 4 furnace to commission), commodities price shoot up.

what share price do you think, OMH will hit,
left alone the business going to be prosper....and you are part of this business

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2021/09/29/tourism-activities-can-resume-in-sarawak-from-friday-oct-1-says-state-tourism-ministry

as OMS partner, perhap CMSB can assist to bring in the manpower/specialist to get the remaining furnace up and running, so that OMH can unlock its full potential on the smelting section


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2021.07.29-ASX-OMH-June-2021-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
The final performance testing of the sinter plant and equipment installation works
for the furnace conversion project have been deferred to the end of 2021 due to the
extension of the lockdown in Malaysia restricting the entry of foreign nationals


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021.04.30-ASX-OMH-March-2021-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
Planned conversion of 2 idled FeSi furnaces progressing as planned with furnace
excavation and civil works in progress


https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29-ASX-OMH-September-2020-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
An additional ferrosilicon furnace was placed on maintenance during the current
quarter. Limitations on hiring new foreign workers continued to impact the Plant’s
ability to operate at full capacity. The conversion of 2 idled ferrosilicon furnaces to
produce manganese alloys is currently at the planning stage

https://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/2020.07.30-ASX-OMH-June-2020-Quarterly-Production-and-Market-Update.pdf
An additional ferrosilicon furnace was temporarily idled during the quarter due to limited
manpower as a result of strict travel restrictions imposed by the Malaysia government and
other state government authorities. Recruitment of foreign skilled and semi-skilled manpower
remains a challenge due to limitations on the hiring of new foreign workers with stricter
guidelines requiring adherence

Marketing GM Adrian Low is related to CEO Low Ngee Tong?

sir name does look same....didnt compare the face resemble in youtube interview .

from observation, do found the OMH had strong grip on management, after read the open letter.

anyway, i think for malaysia...coz we are new to this company, and at the right time where company start to excel.

as long as it a growth company with possible big dividend on this year and next year, the OMH remuneration is really not my concern....coz i didnt vote for it historically.

and as usual.....KLSE style, you make money, you do bonus issue and give free warrant, then we are happy

indeed, Aussie dont really like OMH...for whatever reason..not sure

by theory approach, yes.

in reality, i dont think local taiko CMSB will ever allow >.< under his roof, and both of their biggest customer might had influence on this aggressive takeover.

plus the clause below on Bye Law already close that door
share distribution listed as per below

22-Jun-21
KLSE ~ 16.8 Mil (2.33%)
ASX ~ 721.2 Mil

27-Jul-21
KLSE 59.1 Mil (8.7%)
ASX 679.5 Mil


the takeover incidents
https://www.smh.com.au/business/om-holdings-wary-of-consmin-takeover-bid-20090108-7cn1.html

But OM Holdings said it was "simply not possible to incorporate Australian takeover provisions in their entirety ... as a Bermudan-incorporated company".

Bye-laws take over provisions
there are presently no requirement under Bermuda laws or regulations of general application which will require persons who acquire significant holdings in our share to make take over offers for our shares or to notify us. AS we are company incorporated in Bermuda, the rights of our shareholders are primarily governed by the laws of bermuda and the previous relating to take overs and notification of substantial shareholding of Australian Corporation Act will not apply to offers for our share


http://www.omholdingsltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/2021.04.13-ASX-OMH-Non-Executive-Director-Retirement-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

Pg 13-14

the reference of Bye-Laws Take Over Provision is under IPO documents (pg36/198)
regarding the share pricing fluctuation in ASx & KLSE (pg 38/198 under 5.4.7 & 5.4.9)

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5298_OMH/ipo/2021/5298_OMH_IPO_IPOP_OMHoldingsLimitedProspectusPart2_965543223.pdf

few years bck, i was working in bintulu, been to samalaju and also stay at samalaju resort.

do avoid the beach aat the back of the resort for safety reason. possible crocodile.

and when the wind is not blowing, the air smell.....not sure how to describe....

by the way, pmetal and oms are neighbor...in samalaju.

its very hard to take over OMH, OMH management had fence off one of the major stakeholder trial to takeover few years bck, at the period they propose dual listing in HK.

my thesis is, since CMSB had 25% stake of OMS, buying some CMSB could be beneficial.

first you need to identify who is OMH customer, and try to tie in the current fesi or manganese prcing to it.

just search fb, its there.

provide support to prices.

If prices continue to rise, based on our sensitivity analysis,
every US$100/mt rise in our ferroalloy and aluminium price assumptions of US$1,700 and
US$2,300 per mt in 2022 will boost OM Holdings (OMH) and Press Metal Aluminium’s
(PMetal) earnings by about 25% and 16% per year respectively. For OMH, if FeSi price
remains at its current high of about US$3,000/mt in 2022, this could result in 32% upside to
our target price of RM4.01 to RM5.30. For PMetal, assuming a similar PE of 30.0x (5-year
forward PE mean) being ascribed, this could mean a 15% upside to our target price of
RM6.90 to RM8.00. Every US$2,000/mt increase in our tin price assumption of
US$25,000/mt in 2022 could raise MSC’s earnings by about 20% annually. If tin price
remains at its current high of about US$37,000/mt in 2022, this could result in 23% upside to
our target price of RM3.02 to RM3.73.

OMH

We raise our 2021-23 earnings forecasts by 41%, 52% and 37% respectively as we increase our ASP assumptions of FeSi and
Mn alloy to US$2,000/US$1,700/US$1,500 and US$1,500/US$1,400/US$1,300 per mt for 2021-23. We increase our target price
to RM4.01 (previously RM3.46) accordingly. If prices continue to rise, based on our sensitivity analysis, every US$100/mt rise in
our FeSi and Mn alloy price assumptions will boost earnings by about 25% per year.
• As an eco-friendly and the world’s lowest cost quartile manganese smelter, OMH is expected to post a 3-year net profit CAGR of
+172% from 2020, supported by production recovery and robust ferroalloy prices due to favourable supply-demand dynamics.

by UOBKH 28.09.21

i think about what price you are holding OMH currently,
unless you plan to buy more or sell and buy more at lower. price (time the market)
it is consider more safe to had some base position, so that your wont miss the speed train.

i highly suspected OMH will LU few more time again to meet the high TP (UOBKB said 5.3)
similar like PMBTech

therefore, your buying price range of 2.95- 3.03 is really not much difference.
unless, you accumulated at 2.20 week before.

It is possible to get highest record dividend (in Aus currency covert to RM) from OMH history , and Bonus issue and warrant if follow KLSE style.

the problem is, can you hold and not regret selling too early...

way much much early, just for merely less than 100% profit

the bullish of FeSi, will at least sustain until 2022, and when you look back.....ahh.....should have done this or done that

By
SteelMint Bureau

How is China planning to overcome the power crisis?

It is being widely predicted that after the Evergrande debt disaster rocked China's real estate and financial markets, the next big crisis that has erupted is the prevailing power crunch due to acute shortage of coal supplies, with toughening emission norms and growing manufacturing demand driving domestic and international coal prices to record highs.

As the prevailing power shortage cripples the country's provinces and cities, China's regulatory authorities have stepped up efforts to ensure safe and stable supply of coal during the winter-heating season when consumption typically peaks.

Coal contracts for winter

As per reports in the Chinese media, the central and local governments have taken steps to supplement the signing of medium and long-term coal contracts and determine emergency coal storage bases to improve supply and price stability.

On 25 Sep'21, a coal contract-signing ceremony was held in Beijing for mid- and long-term agreements for power generation and heating in China's North-east. The coal contract is a coal purchase and sale contract with a clear implementation period. Based on railway transportation, the contract follows a base price + floating price mechanism.

As per latest reports from China, the overall implementation rate of medium- and long-term coal contracts in 2021 has exceeded 90%. Senior officials of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have informed that the regulatory authorities must continue to increase the coverage of coal contracts and ensure implementation though minute supervision.



Key coal-producing provinces

At the NDRC's behest, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and major coal producing companies held a special meeting on 24 Sep.

Officials at the meeting underlined the need to speed up the release of advanced production capacity, make efforts to increase production and supply, put resources into enterprises, and urge power and coal companies to complete the contracts as soon as possible to ensure supply during winter. Localities and enterprises have also taken measures to promote stable coal prices and supply during the heating season.

In order to ensure smooth operation of power and heat supply in the heating season and the coming spring, Liaoning Province has selected 13 companies including Shenyang North Coal Market Co., Ltd. as the provincial emergency coal storage base in the province. The purpose is to mobilise coal storage resources in emergency situations.

Companies lower prices

Many companies have taken the initiative to lower coal prices. The National Energy Group and China Coal Group lowered prices at Qinhuangdao Port on 24 Sep. The National Energy Group reduced sales prices by RMB 20/t and China Coal Group reduced prices by RMB 10/t.

At the same time, the Inner Mongolia Yitai Group, Inner Mongolia Qingmei Transportation and Marketing Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Hongxing Supply Chain Company also promised that coal at Qinhuangdao Port will be sold at lower than market prices.

Li Zhongmin, Deputy General Manager of National Coal Trading Centre, said that the tension between supply and demand in the coal market will tend to ease. It is expected that coal resources for heating and power generation will be fully guaranteed in winter, and coal prices won't rise.

"The experience of winter storage in various regions is also becoming more abundant. Many companies in the three North-eastern provinces have winter storage ahead of schedule. After the preliminary supply preparations, it is expected that coal prices will remain within a reasonable range in the critical winter period," Zhongmin stated.

Power problems

China's power generation through Aug'21 was actually 10.1% greater than in the same period in 2020, and nearly 15% more than the corresponding period in 2019, as utilities across the country ramped up power supply to meet surging industrial demand. But, along with higher power generation, came higher emissions, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the first three months of 2021.

As per NDRC, only 10 out of 30 mainland Chinese regions achieved their energy reduction targets in the first six months of 2021. Local governments in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Guangdong provinces have asked factories to limit power usage or curb output.

Amid rampant power rationing affecting industries across the spectrum from food processing

The main reason for the price increase is the shutdown limit imposed by various regions under the dual energy control policy, which triggered the market's expectations of tightening supply of ferro alloys.

Silico manganese and ferro silicon are widely used as deoxidisers and alloying agents in steelmaking to eliminate excess oxygen and sulphur in molten steel and improve the quality and performance of steel. Therefore, they play an indispensable role in steelmaking. Although the amount used in the steelmaking process is small, its demand is considerable amid the huge steel output in China.

Judging from the survey of completion of Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021 issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 17, in the first half of this year, the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces (regions), including Qinghai, Ningxia, and Guangxi, did not decrease y-o-y. The energy consumption reduction rate in these provinces has not met the requirements, and the country's energy conservation situation is grim.

A study report pointed out that from the comparison of the production capacity ratios of major industrial products in the 9 provinces, it is found that ferro alloys are the first to be affected by the dual control of energy consumption.

In addition, the power gap in Inner Mongolia has not been fully alleviated, and Yunnan, Yulin, Shaanxi and many other provinces have also implemented dual control policies.

It is expected that the scope of manganese and silicon production restrictions may continue to expand, while the market still has doubts about whether the September production restriction can greatly improve in the near term.

Under the influence of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the prices of ferro alloys have repeatedly hit record highs. Among related products, ferro silicon and silico manganese futures currently listed on the futures market have continued to rise, and they have appeared in recent days.

The main silico manganese futures contract has risen by 75.59% this year, and the main ferro silicon futures contract has risen by 118.32%. Over the same period, spot prices also rose sharply.

The expected contraction on the supply side has driven the alloy market to become hot. With the tightening of policies, some alloy companies have successively issued limited production suspension statements.

Outlook

Ferro alloy and other high-energy-consuming power industries seem to be the targets of this large-scale nationwide action.

Since silico manganese and ferro silicon related industries account for less than 1% of GDP, the impact of curbing the output of the alloy industry is relatively small. Under the stiff target of energy consumption reduction in the 14th Five-Year Plan, if there is no advancement in smelting technology to reduce energy consumption within five years, reducing output will be the only way at present. Finally, under the target requirements of carbon peak and carbon neutrality (that is, carbon dioxide emissions will strive to reach the peak before 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060), the output of the ferro alloy industry is expected to face a relatively strict dual control policy for energy consumption.

It is widely believed that a cyclical upward trend in prices of ferro alloys has started in China, with the profit margins of silico manganese and ferro silicon production companies globally rising considerably compared with the previous years.

current price is really cheap.

in next mth, after quarter result out....its would be uite hard to get anymore due to more coverage by the edge, all shifu buy call and limited share unit in our side (unless u had ASX account, buy there or transfer)