dragon1, appreciate your concurrence, just sharing thought.

Since late last year ppl buy tekseng for its solar, now solar not performing, expect ppl to dump it.
"水能载舟,亦能覆舟."
The water that bears the boat is the same that swallows it up.

Alpha Trader, July to Sept pv price is from HIGH to bottom. Oct onward recover a bit, but not substantial, even admit by your self "solar will make loss on q4? please look at pv prices, it has recovered, though not to previous high". So 4Q average price still lower than 3Q.

In case u are not aware, as at late November, price is still 26.6% lower than July.
"He noted that solar cells were selling for about US$1.10 currently, compared with about US$1.50 in July." http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/28/tek-seng-expects-net-profit-and-revenue-to-improve/

Actually solar suffer loss of RM3.743 million. It was only saved by solar other operating income (mostly Compensation received from a supplier) of RM3.779 million to give solar overall a tiny profit of 23k. This evidently show that tekseng is selling solar cell at a loss, due to lower ASP.

As pv price start to crash from July and bottom in Sept, so only Sept bore the full brunt of the solar crash. Since solar has not recover yet, so the whole 4Q may bear the full brunt of the solar crash and produce loss larger than solar other income, to give an overall solar loss.

Something to think about before u press the buy button tmr.

Luckily solar 3Q not negative, though so near. But don't overjoy yet. Solar pv price crash from july and only bottom in September, so only sept got the full brunt of the solar crash.
Since solar has not recover yet, so the whole 4Q may get the full brunt of the solar crash ... and possible produce solar negative. Something to think about before u press the buy button.

Denying in the face of bad result sometimes do some comfort.

With project EPS for 2017 about 1.19, next year vivo worth 0.10 only !!
Don't wait, just run now .................... 0.10 coming .......................... !!!!

If solar is negative, may go below 0.60 ...... don't play play !!

project diluted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are only 1.19 sen and 0.5 sen respectively !!
jay: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/107442.jsp

0.10 is coming ....... run !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tekseng price was brought up by solar, similarly it can be brought down by solar just as easy.

if solar is negative, may go below 0.60 !! Be prepared ............. !!

.. and the pv price crash bottom in September, so by september already got the full impact of the solar crash.

dizzyshin, then can u explain what is the effect of 2Q solar profit margin 13.19% but in 3Q solar ASP drop more than 15% ?

How to make profit when selling price lower than cost?

Biorider, u may refer to http://pv.energytrend.com/ for global pv prices (price measured in watt) and global solar trend.

Patrick13, thanks for the clarification.

Hello rider friend, I quoted the solar selling price from today the star report.
"He noted that solar cells were selling for about US$1.10 currently, compared with about US$1.50 in July." http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/11/28/tek-seng-expects-net-profit-and-revenue-to-improve/

Earlier on, uob kay hian research said, tekseng average PV cell selling price drop from Aug US 0.32 to Sep US 0.27. That is 15% drop in price in 1 month from Aug to Sep !

I don't know why the selling price in the star report and uob research is different, but both show ASP drop of at least 15% (more than 2Q solar profit margin of 13.19%), which is enough to land the solar segment in the negative territory.
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Biorider Skyrider, mind to share where that you the solar selling price???? mind to share the link here???
28/11/2016 13:42

What make matter worse is that solar cells are still selling for about US$1.10 currently, compared with about US$1.50 in July. If no substantial increase of ASP in December, solar 4Q will be making loss again !! Not a very bright prospect indeed.

If calculated proportionally, ASP drop 30% vs 2Q profit margin 13.19%, solar will give loss of more than RM13.268 million (which is solar 2Q gross/net profit) !!
This likely would wipe out all the PVC and other income profit and give an overall result of negative EPS !!
Don't think anymore ........ just run ....................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2Q solar revenue RM100.585 million, gross/net profit RM13.268 million (no tax) give profit margin 13.19%.
If ASP dropped by 30%, which is more than profit margin of 13.19%, that mean solar is making loss !!
and that loss will eat into PVC and other income proft !!
Wow .... worse than I thought, maybe should run really really fast now !!

Need to wait until Tekseng really bottom coupled with meaningful solar recovery before it turn into an undervalue gem again. So be patient lah .......

Without a meaningful solar recovery in sight, Tekseng may continue to fall after poor qtr out, just like Gadang. In the meantime it is more like a germ than a gem.

undervalue "germ"? Tekseng was an undervalue gem late last year, not now, in view of the current solar glut and depressed pv price which affect solar bottom line.

Since I projected 10 days ago (6/11/16) tekseng to tumble to 0.80 after poor qtr out, tekseng has further dropped from 0.955 to 0.88! Now from 0.88 to 0.80, is just piece of cake after poor qtr out. Be prepared ...... 0.80 is coming !

wahahaha, I am still here ....... just waiting to see Tekseng tumble to 0.80 after poor qtr out !

Agreed with you dragon1 !
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dragon1 Kukubird- pleasd read my comments from day 1 since you check on my history.
I have been playing TS during the early booming and know it more you.
I think my comments given are so far good.
I think those who sell at apprx 1.2 will thanks me
Those who didnt buy since 1.20 will also thanks me :) if they happen to consider my comments seriously.
12/11/2016 08:16

Good sharing Sigmund1118 !

Even if price tank after poor qtr out, it is not necessary a buy call as the solar prospect is looking even grimmer after Trump win.
"From the long-term perspective, however, the U.S. solar market is expected to contract significantly under Trump’s policies and the oversupply problem in the global PV market will get worse."
http://pv.energytrend.com/research/Trump_Presidency_Will_Trigger_Installation_Rush_in_US_Solar_Market_Followed_by_a_Demand_Freeze.html

wow kukubird888, look like u have studied my history. what a compliment. Didn't u notice previously I have warn ppl to run before comcorp tumbled on 21 Jun 2016 from 0.99 to 0.665 ? Similarly Tekseng will tumble if 3Q is poor, though not as bad as comcorp on 21-6-2016. This is just my 2 cents, u don't to heed. u just need to remember what the MD Loh Kok Beng said about Tek Seng 20% slowdown in sales in recent months. Good luck!

There may be many reasons why MD Loh Kok Beng want to buy Tek Seng shares recently, I don't wish to speculate what they are. However it is not necessarily because the shares are cheap as some ppl here wished / projected.
If the MD want to buy cheap shares, he could have bought last year at 0.50 before Tekseng fly, why he dumb dumb bought shares recently at 1.16, 1.23 and 0.98?
Life will be so beautiful if investment is as simple as following the director move.

Kukubird888, thanks for your attention in your very first post today using your fresh new i3 ID.
Actually u don't have to listen to me. Just listen to MD Loh Kok Beng said about Tek Seng 20% slowdown in sales in recent months:-
"Its group managing director Loh Kok Beng acknowledged in a recent interview with The Edge Financial Daily that the solar cell market is already entering a softer period and that Tek Seng itself has experienced up to a 20% slowdown in sales in recent months,..."
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/tek-seng-says-it%E2%80%99s-still-full-steam-ahead-after-layoffs?type=Corporate

M16s, if tekseng 3Q result is poor, it is wholly possible 0.80 is reached. I don't pluck this figure from the air. Gadang drop 15% (at lowest) after poor qtr, First Solar drop 13% on Q3 revenue miss.
Tekseng from 0.955 to 0.80 is about 16% drop, about the same.
(by the way the first solar link below is posted by u earlier, thanks!)
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13879690/1/first-solar-fslr-stock-tumbles-on-q3-revenue-miss-outlook.html?puc=CNNMONEY&cm_ven=CNNMONEY

Not only TS partner - taiwan solartech is suffering from lower revenue recently
http://en.solartech-energy.com/invest/report-mon.aspx even our tekseng here is having
20% slowdown in sales in recent months as informed by MD Loh Kok Beng.
"Its group managing director Loh Kok Beng acknowledged in a recent interview with The Edge Financial Daily that the solar cell market is already entering a softer period and that Tek Seng itself has experienced up to a 20% slowdown in sales in recent months,..."
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/tek-seng-says-it%E2%80%99s-still-full-steam-ahead-after-layoffs?type=Corporate
With these double effect of lower margin and lower sales, poor 3Q result is inevitable.
Brace for the storms ahead soldiers ! 0.80 is coming ...................

Izam_mahathir, uob kay hian research said, tekseng average PV cell selling price drop from Aug US 0.32 to Sep US 0.27. That is 15% drop in price in 1 month from Aug to Sep !
How about the price% drop from 2Q (apr, may, Jun)? Should be more than 15% I deduced (as price gradually reduced in time). This huge reduction in price will definitely going to give a big dent to the profit margin (lucky if no loss), which is why UOB expect tekseng 2H earning less than 1H earning.

大華繼顯發表的分析報告也指出「德成集團太陽能晶片的平均售價從8月的每兆瓦32美分，下跌至9月的每兆瓦27美分。」
大華分析員認為，德成集團2016財政年將取得明顯的成長，但由于太陽能晶片價格趨軟，因此今年下半年盈利料不及上半年。

wahahaha, while you may build your sweet wonderful tekseng dream, without concrete basis,
meanwhile Tekseng is waiting for u first at 0.80 after poor 3Q result is out. Good luck !

wahahah since u first promote tekseng on 27-9-2016 (that day low is 1.07), tekseng has never recover to its level on 27-9-2016. This clearly show your call is bad.
Now u want to collect at 0.90 after promoting it at above 1.00, u really thick face huh ?
Actually if 3Q result is poor, u can even get 0.80 ! Wish u luck wahahaha in getting Tekseng cheaper and cheaper .......
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Posted by wahahaha > Sep 27, 2016 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

hahahaha TS using more automation lah so retrench some workers is saving more money. Selldown is overacted, bargain buy! u so scared why bother be here? sell loh. I queue buy

The genuine smart promoter last year is chickmonk. Never heard from him lately. Must have sold tekseng at high and left. Miss him ......

Those promoters, even if genuine, are utterly not sharp.
If they are sharp, they would have recommend Tekseng since last year before Tekseng fly.
Promote Tekseng after price up, postpone expansion, staff retrenchment and solar glut ....etc is just many many steps late !

Slimy, solar winter already gone　!
It is solar early spring now. However the recovery may not be sustainable as "Price increase will face stagnation by mid-November"
http://pv.energytrend.com/price/Short_Term_Supply_Shortage_Allows_Prices_in_Mid_Sector_of_the_Supply_China_to_Increase_the_Most_This_Year_Price_Trend.html

Notwithstanding the solar recovery, not good time to buy yet because if Tekseng 3Q result is poor, it will dive like Gadang last friday.
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Slimy https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=solar%20glut

solar winter is coming...
01/11/2016 14:41

jay: CKNYAM please don't blindly follow analysts. do you realise how many of the HOA has lapsed?
27/10/2016 22:59

Patient lah traderman .... next year u can get 0.10 ... why the hurry?

traderman also confuse between order book and Heads of Agreement, Letter of Intent, Joint Collaboration Agreement etc. which are not legally binding and nothing materialise after initial announcement.

Actually it should be vivo, not gadang, that is worth 0.1 next year on PE 10 = 0.10. traderman just got the name wrong.

With more and more exposure, ppl are starting to dump vivo ..... run before too late !!

biba: Oct 27, 2016 02:16 PM | Report Abuse

I check Vivo (LOA)letter of awards = confirm orderbook now RM1.18 billions. Constructions works in progress (RM 1.18 billions /3 average years ) future one years average revenue RM 393.3 millions
(RM 393,333,333 / profit margin 8%) = RM 31,466,666 future earning in one year.
EPS = earnings/total shares outstanding ( RM 31,466,666/share issued 3,234,000,000 )=EPS 0.00972
P/E ratio = price per share / earnings per share ( 0.185/ 0.00972 ) PE 19
based on shares issue 3.234 billions is to much shares cannot growth, reasonable PE 7
2017 years PE 19 is very expensive and overvalued company...
reasonable price for this company is around :
PE 7 = 0.07
PE 10= 0.10

project diluted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are only 1.19 sen and 0.5 sen respectively !!
jay: http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/107442.jsp

Wow, project diluted EPS for 2017 and 2018 are 1.19 sen and 0.5 sen ... better run before too late !!
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/107442.jsp

Tekseng may laosai like Gadang today if tekseng 3Q result is poor. Just be patient lah ... no need overexcited over 1 sen dividend.

Investor act both on visual instint and future vision.
I opine at this juncture visual impact of the retrencement is much stronger than the future vision of solar recovery, no matter how much wahahaha and others shout.
Current solar recovery may slow the sell trend, but not strong enough to push up in a big way. Notwithstanding the said solar recovery, if 3Q result is poor (due to the drastic PV price drop in 3Q), sell momentum will resume. So be prepared if u want to jump onto the boat now.

VilyVi, UOB, knowing line 4 to 7 for Neo Solar Power, if operational, will only bring in low profit, surely would say no impact to performance due to the retrencement.
However, I believe many Tekseng investors are not aware of the low profit for these expansion lines, and they have fried up the stock price in anticipation of hugh profit to be brought by this expansion.
Now, no more expansion, naturally price deflate, don't think it is planned by somebody ...just my 2 cents.

Though UOB analyst said the retrencement has no impact, he however said profit will be impact by the recent solar cell price erosion, and change call to sell at TP RM1.05.
If one want to take heed of the UOB retrencement no impact theory, maybe u should also take heed of his profit impact by solar cell price erosion theory.
另外，根據《Energy Trend》的報道，雖然太陽能需求處上升趨勢，但太陽能晶片的售價在9月下滑，主因為供應商競爭激烈及美國市場可從其他免稅供應商拿貨。

分析員認為，德成集團2016財政年將取得明顯的成長，但由于太陽能晶片價格趨軟，因此今年下半年盈利料不及上半年。

整體而言，該分析員將德成集團今明兩年的太陽能板平均售價分別下調13%和17%，至每瓦30美分至32美分，並將該股投資評級下調至「賣出」，目標價為1.05令吉。