Line 4 to 7 for Neo solar Polar, if operational, can only bring in RM5 million total profit per year, which is only RM1.25 million profit per qtr. That is extremely LOW !

VivyVi, pls allow me to answer u categorically:

1. Expansion may resume, but not necessary in near future as "Oversupply Will Prevent Global PV Market From Recovering in Near Future"
http://pv.energytrend.com/research/Oversupply_Will_Prevent_Global_PV_Market_From_Recovering_in_Near_Future.html

2. Even if expansion is resumed for NSP, the margin for line 4 to 7 is low relatively to other line as it is based on cost plus basis, (which is why Tekseng has this compensation deal if NSP does not meet minimum order - it is like Tekseng give in profit margin, NSP give compensation assurance)
大華繼顯分析員認為，德成集團的裁員舉動料對該公司的影響不大，原因是此次裁員的開銷將由客戶承擔。

分析員解釋說，德成集團的第4至第6條生產線已由台灣的客戶承包。該客戶在簽訂最低數量的訂單后，若是無法達到最低訂單要求，將作出賠償。而且該公司也可將成本轉嫁給客戶。

「德成集團第4至第7條生產線已簽訂5年的訂單合約，及5年可選擇性續約。」

同時，分析員稱，上述生產線的賺幅較其他生產線低，預計每年貢獻500萬令吉，或相等于2017財政年盈利的10%。

3. As Tekseng already work with solartech, no other taiwanese pv company will work with Tekseng, except for cases like NSP where Tekseng only got low margin.

And COINCIDENTALLY all the "lazy workers" were from line 4 to line 6 (COINCIDENTALLY which are part of the expansion lines), and not a single one from line 1 to 3 ?
Your "logic" is so flawed, just like your ang mo kau identity so fake. Sum u up 1 word, CONMAN !

Fake ang mo kau BRITISHEMPIRE out to mislead ppl again. The staff were lay off due to unmet
business forecast, not because the they were lazy!

"GEORGE TOWN (Sept 29): Penang government says the latest retrenchment exercise at a unit of Penang-based Tek Seng Holdings Bhd was due to the company's redundancy caused by unmet business forecast, and is not reflective of the state's employment climate.

InvestPenang general manager Loo Lee Lian said in a statement today that the agency has been informed of the reason for the 180-staff retrenchment by TS Solartech Sdn Bhd, Tek Seng's solar cell and module manufacturer based in Penang Science Park."

wahahaha if u are really good, u would have promote ah seng late last year.
After price went up by more than 100%, expansion postponed and staff lay off then u come to promote ..... eh ... a bit too late alrdy.

Reasonable fair assessment by Riche Ho. Just he didn't detail what effect recent drastic pv price drop will have on the profit margin and how long the solar slump will sustain.

Ah seng is no taiko who can dictate global solar market price, in fact no solar taiko can.
Whatever fundamental ah seng has also cannot beat this global solar slump, which may last for quite some time (the 2011 solar slump lasted 2 years). So do not make fantasy on quick sand.
http://pv.energytrend.com/research/Oversupply_Will_Prevent_Global_PV_Market_From_Recovering_in_Near_Future.html

Those who follow BRITISHMPIRE call earlier is having big loss now, those who follow wahahaha calls will in time (latest by the time poor 3Q result out) make big loss also.

kt_invest, don't think the lay off will have much impact on the bottom line as the main issue for 3Q
is not sale volume but profit margin. PV prices has dropped drastically in 3Q, so much so that Taiwan Solartech
is estimated to incur loss for the qtr ending Sep-16 and Dec-16.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=3561.TW
I understand ah seng has better profit margin compare to Taiwan solartech as malaysia is not affected by
U.S. tariff on pv products, however ah seng will be affected by this global pv price drop nonetheless.
(大華繼顯發表的分析報告也指出「德成集團太陽能晶片的平均售價從8月的每兆瓦32美分，下跌至9月的每兆瓦27美分,
That is 15% drop in price in 1 month from Aug to Sep. How about the price% drop from 2Q (apr, may, Jun)?
Should be much more than 15% I deduced and this will definitely cut profit margin a lot (lucky if no loss).
I do not think ah seng will make loss like Taiwan Solartech due to this pv prices drop, but profit definitely will be
reduced severely. Based on the circumstancial data I have above, my estimated GUESS is ah seng 3Q solar profit
will be cut at least by half compared to 2Q.
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Posted by kt_invest > Sep 29, 2016 10:27 PM | Report Abuse

With the lay off, this will affect the solar contribution. Would this be reflected in the coming quarter report? .....

After this retrenchment fiasco, BRITISHEMPIRE who have hard sell tekseng 1 month ago, disappear. Now we have wahahaha to take over his place to hard sell, without any basis.
When 3Q come out, wahahaha just like BRITISHEMPIRE, will disappear also,
as tekseng solar segment is going to be very poor due to the drastic drop in PV price.

(大華繼顯發表的分析報告也指出「德成集團太陽能晶片的平均售價從8月的每兆瓦32美分，下跌至9月的每兆瓦27美分,That is 15% drop in price in 1 month from Aug to Sep. How about the price% drop from 2Q (apr, may, Jun)? Should be much more than 15% I deduced and this will definitely cut profit margin a lot (lucky if no loss).

Don't believe? Taiwan solartech is estimated to lose TWD 0.50 and TWD 0.36 per share
for the Quarter Ending Sept-16 and Dec-16 respectively.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=3561.TW

Don't think ah seng can do much better.

The crucial issue now is how much compensation tekseng will get if minimum order not achieved for line 4 to 7?
My deduction is that it is not going to be a small sum, however it will not be huge enough to make a big profit impact.
Otherwise why UOB still project 因此今年下半年盈利料不及上半年.
Furthermore, if the compensation is going to be huge to make a big profit impact,
there is no reason for UOB or Mr. Loh to be silent on the exact compensation amount,
in order to calm the market (in Mr. Loh case).

VilyVi, your opinion that performance would not be too far off from 2016 1st-half as production qty remain the same does not hold as u miss out the all important price factor.
大華繼顯發表的分析報告也指出「德成集團太陽能晶片的平均售價從8月的每兆瓦32美分，下跌至9月的每兆瓦27美分。」
That is 15% drop in price in 1 month from Aug to Sep.
How about the price% drop from 2Q (apr, may, Jun)? Should be more than 15% I deduced (as price gradually reduced by time).
This hugh reduction in price will definitely going to give a big dent to the profit margin (lucky if no loss).
That is why 大華分析員認為，德成集團2016財政年將取得明顯的成長，但由于太陽能晶片價格趨軟，因此今年下半年盈利料不及上半年。
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Posted by VilyVi > Sep 27, 2016 11:07 PM | Report Abuse
I believe the old production lines are still running full capacity, therefore we can anticipate that although the 2016 2nd-half production expansion does not happen, the performance would not be too far off from 2016 1st-half.

A lot ppl buy tekseng for the solar expansion story.
Now no expansion, so more got production reduction and lower profit margin (lucky if no loss) and this solar slump may last for quite some (the 2011 solar slump lasted 2 years! ), then any good reason to stay on?
For the PVC? oh no ..... pvc is not why ppl buying tekseng.

REPEAT OF 2011 SOLAR BUST. Last time the slump lasted 2 years. Tihis time how long?
- Supply glut comes five years after industry’s last downturn
- Prices are slumping, and suppliers expect margins to slip as well. It’s a pattern we’ve seen before, after a global oversupply five years ago drove dozens of companies out of business.
- “Oversupply appears to be business as usual in the solar industry,”
- The solar industry went through a similar boom-bust cycle after capacity grew faster than demand, triggering a two-year slump starting in late 2011.
pls refer to the link by YLR33 earlier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/solar-industry-braces-as-looming-glut-threatens-to-erode-prices

"Looking ahead to 2017, the entire supply chain – from polysilicon to PV modules – will see supply exceeding demand significantly by 18~35%. In sum, EnergyTrend expects to oversupply to become quite severe."

"On the whole, the global PV market will be at a standstill in 2017 with the annual growth rate at zero for the first time on record."

Do not expect tekseng to recover from this solar problem soon.
Oversupply Will Prevent Global PV Market From Recovering in Near Future
http://pv.energytrend.com/research/Oversupply_Will_Prevent_Global_PV_Market_From_Recovering_in_Near_Future.html

Demand is not the problem, the problem is the supply glut which is bring down pv price and margin and also cause factory to cut production / postpone expansion.
"PV cells have negative gross margin, among the sectors with the deepest price drop"
http://pv.energytrend.com/price/Price_Drop_of_PV_Modules_Spreads_to_Mid_and_Upstream_Sectors.html

Already inform earlier that tekseng is postponing expansion. why wait till now to run ?
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Posted by skyrider > Sep 1, 2016 02:49 PM | Report Abuse X

據了解，昇陽科原本規劃下半年要擴增馬來西亞合資廠產能，新增200MW，使得當地產能達500MW，但眼見市況反轉，計畫趕不上變化，所以該公司已經決定暫緩擴充大馬的生產線。
It is understood that Solartech originally planned to expand the Malaysia joint venture's plant capacity in the second half of the year, to increase 200MW, so that local production can reach 500MW, but seeing market conditions reverse, plans can't keep up with changes , so the company has decided to postpone the expansion of production lines in Malaysia .
http://udn.com/news/story/7251/1913485

news already out that tekseng solar segment expansion is to be postponed:
http://udn.com/news/story/7251/1913485

Thanks hongchai for the link. Guys pls note the news was dated 23-8-2016, alrdy 1 week old !

據了解，昇陽科原本規劃下半年要擴增馬來西亞合資廠產能，新增200MW，使得當地產能達500MW，但眼見市況反轉，計畫趕不上變化，所以該公司已經決定暫緩擴充大馬的生產線。
It is understood that Solartech originally planned to expand the Malaysia joint venture's plant capacity in the second half of the year, to increase 200MW, so that local production can reach 500MW, but seeing market conditions reverse, plans can't keep up with changes , so the company has decided to postpone the expansion of production lines in Malaysia .
http://udn.com/news/story/7251/1913485

BWC and investor, want to bet whether 2.00 will come tmr ?

qtr is just round the corner, why so impatient ?

2.00 will come if qtr bad ..........

2.10 break ...... BWC and investo what do both of u idiots say to that !

2.10 break ........................ !!!!

Yes, solar is sun rise industrial and it is this very reason that now everyone want to claim a piece of the pie and thus created glut of pv in the market which in turn bring down the pv price and profit margin, and even loss.

If this pv price downtrend continue, expansion may not necessary bring more profit as it is eaten by low pv prices and in worst case can instead bring loss.

Invest in tekseng now is taking a BET on the pv prices.

if based on 股海無涯 optimistic Q2'16 eps of 14.3 sen, price could go to 2.50.
if based on pessimistic Q2'16 eps of 7.3 sen, price could go as low as 2.00
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ethg/102978.jsp
so expect more to fall after qtr out ........

look like i have a follower in BWC ... so shy ... i am no sifu leh.

just 2 sen to 2.10 ........ tmr may just be the fateful day.

I am referring to the PV price, not the share price.

If price keep falling, even increase production couldn't help. This is very worrying.

Prices across PV Value Chain to Go Decreasing through September: Price Trend
http://pv.energytrend.com/price/20160821-10896.html
Current situation does not look good.

in view of the poor result and the current challenges faced, it is a bit risky to be an optimist.
challenges:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sin_chew_hot_stocks/102881.jsp

with such poor result and coupled with the upcoming challenges, market would be very kind to aax if aax can rebound so soon.

Aiyo Buy1sell2, comcorp at least got EPS 3.83 sen to show for, what EPS does aax give?

Thanks for your attention BWC. Tmr may be the D day for 2.10 .......

2.10 coming ........

after that 2.00 ....... run !

yes this time it is for real ...... 2.10

2.10 is really coming ...... run !

The big production increase will only show in Q4. I guess ppl may not want to wait that long, hence sell and look for faster money elsewhere.

Q3 may not be as strong. Q2 report didn't mention of any big order like reported in Q1.

This qtr record profit (3.54 sen) previous record profit (2.88 sen).
Price record high 89 sen. can mmsv go to 89 sen first ?

what a beauty ..... !!

down trend intact .... may go to 2.10 (humble sikit, kalau tidak orang ask me get out)

nice close ......

gearing up for a nice qtr ........ good!

Maybe another round of forced selling this afternoon ......... 2.10 may reach.

march to 8.32 ......... go go go !