Capital City, in Tampoi will benefit if HSR is revived. It is 15 minutes away from Tampoi to Iskandar Puteri (station in Johor) on the west, and 15 minutes to Johor Bahru (on the west) where possible Singapore link of Rapid Transit System.

It smack right in the middle of Iskandar Puteri and Johor Bahru. Gadang's units, will be easier to sell (once release from mainly the Bumiputra's portion).

Government abolished ECRL, then revive, abolished HSR, may revive, abolish toll, may buy back one or two tolls. Accede to Roman Statue (ICC), then abolish Roman Statue. Hmmm....... what next? Let's hope operators has collected enough for .........

Some may not be able to see the forest from the trees. Toll Highways total investments will be about RM5b, construction order about RM3b, and a RM76m deal is just a small tree in the forest. Why so much noises on one tree and ignore the forest.

China Tower is in similar sector but not comparable. Its almost worth RM200b, OCK is close to RM0.5b. China Tower trade at PE of 100x. Many still think that OCK is a telco service provider, but going forward, it is more a towerco.

For Info Only, China Tower listed in HK last Aug 2018, at HKD1.26 per share, today is about HKD2.11 (not bad for a 9 month investment, gain of HKD0.75 (about 50%).

With ECRL back, constructions sector will be more vibrant (hopefully). Based on the announcement, the profit recognition from the Capital City deal is minimum RM85m, max is RM135m as one off gain. Hopefully they can get around RM100 - 110m depends on the sale of units over next 3 years.

science + art = stock market reality. However, sometimes it is the art part that counts. Good write up though.

May be sooner, as seen in the accumulation over the last 5 months and positive growth in Myanmar with higher tenancy ratio about 1.42x based on expanded number of towers.

Extracted from announcement

Impact on Earnings
Basic EPS
 Audited consolidated PAT for the FYE 31 May 2018 (sen) 14.71
 Pro forma consolidated PAT after the Proposed Variation (sen) 27.92
 Pro forma consolidated PAT after the sale of the Identified Retail Units and/or
exercise of the Option and utilisation of proceeds (sen) 35.51
(No of shares, 658 million).

For reference (not comparison), FGV paid RM1.2billion for 16,000 ha of palm oil in Sabah to Pontian (RM75,000 per ha). Eko paid RM76m or 24% of PLS for about 12,000 ha of palm oil in Johor or about RM33,000 per ha (I believe is reasonable). End of the day, it depends how much FFB and OER they can squeeze out of it.

Can't said much about the "durian deal by PLS". Market (do not favour RPT) is a bit over reacted on the negative side.

Extract from Announcement@29 March 2019

In consideration of the Parties agreeing to the payment of the Final Outstanding Sum
via the contra of the Identified Retail Units, the Parties had simultaneously entered into
the Option Agreements and granted the relevant Parties the option to sell or buy the

Remaining Units during the Offer Period at the Option Purchase Price as follows:

RM312.0 million – (A + B + C + D)

Where
A = sum of APSB’s collection from CCPSB towards the settlement of the APSB
Entitlement Sum to the date of the Settlement Agreement;
B = Covenanted Sum to be disbursed to APSB;
C = proceeds raised from the sale of the Identified Retail Units before the Option is
exercised; and
D = Balance 1/3 Sum

(Basically changes in A, B, C and D figures from the variation, but total is about the same - but settle in a longer period)

Hope it will move up after showing a better coming quarters (likely) despite he damages his own reputation on unwise PLS deal (although the plantation valuation (RM33,000 per ha) is debatable, max discount of 20-30%, negative impact is insignificant and immaterial to discuss).

A day prior to GE14 on May 7, 2018, Eko is 78 sen and IWC is 72 sen. Today, Eko is 53 sen and IWC is 73 sen.

Since GE14, Eko has dropped about RM535 million. Long way to go and it was mentioned by analysts the next qtr, construction and toll sectors will improve (they contribute almost 90% in their earnings for Eko)

It is easier to spot a black dot on a white piece of paper and overlook 99.9% of the paper is white. Just look at Litrak (toll), share price dropped 40 sen when government announce negotiation. About 20 days later, it climbed back 30 sen + 15 sen dividend, recovered 45 sen.

The PLS deal, whichever way we look at it is insignificant (profit or NTA angle), just like the black dot on a piece of white paper.

It was reported by analyst that construction and toll is growing in double digits. When next quarter results improved, nobody will joke about the durian plantation. (just like investing in Litrak, you get a cool 45 sen return 11% return in 20 days, instead of ranting, make the most out of it)

Small sum, can treat it as opportunity.

Litrak recovered three quarter of its drop recently due to government announcement to takeover Litrak's toll, what about Ekovest? Grab some? @55.5?

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2019/03/11/1510570753-148452195.pdf
Tower sector will provide sustainable growth. Time to grab some?

Despite the "insignificant and unwise transaction" on PLS, the mother and warrants price correction is an opportunity.

cakeist fallacy

Growth will comes from Vietnam. The motorcycle market is 7x Malaysia.

After high volume, it will slow down for a few days. Just have to wait. As usual, it's overreactions.

Great, another opportunity to grab some. Noises provide opportunity. Grab some WB.

Despite flattish earnings estimates by RHB, the estimated fair value is about 89 sen (for FY19)

Accumulated some WA for medium term.

EPF/public has about 11%, or 300m shares. Poor Gamuda shareholders, no recourse. RM63m wipe out. (Who will want to do biz with government in future???). Shareholders' rights, minority rights, corporate governance................hahaha

Poor shareholders of toll roads, no recourse against the government. EPF/public is also screwed, EPF has 30m shares. (not sure about others). Basically, government screw a batch of people, to appease another set of people, which could be the same people. rule of law???

Eko's toll is 40% held by public (EPF).

IWC up 68% from its historical low, Ekovest only up 35%. (GBG up 65%).

Results out next week, if sentiment can sustain, and results is good, share price will improve. Add more WB???

1) 91% held by institutionals. More than three quarter of the 4m shares held by shariah funds are disposed in the market. Upside will be strong once the shariah fund sell down is over (as compared with other stocks, which were sold down due to shariah issue)

2) Anything below RM10.00 is good opportunity to accumulate (average cash flow p.a. is RM300m, doing at 6.5x. There will be pressure on the management to increase the dividend payout ratio, with RM1b of cash and growing RM300m every year. New marine related products & Vietnam motorcycle sales is expected to provide growth to the company. Mr Tong also likes HLI.

Gainers:Losers 3:1 today. Hope it (positive sentiment) can stay that way for a while. Analyst's report said OCK Vietnam secured another sale and leaseback for 300 towers/BTS. Results is early next week.

MCap RM3b, Net Cash RM1b, estimates profits next few years RM300m to RM350m, DY 5%, Well managed company. Dividend is about RM150m p.a., each year generate cash flow of RM300m. PE (net cash) about 6x, still a good deal at RM9.70. (KLK PE 35x, not comparing, just for info). Fund managers who holds KLK should swap with HLI, upside potential better. KLK has a net debt of about RM2b.

PE (net cash) looks interesting for consumer stock. With RM1b cash, not surprise, may consider special dividend. Even without special dividend, DY is about 5% p.a. is considerable.

Results is good. One of the underappreciated consumer stock that has reasonable growth. Should accumulate more?

Even if we place zero value to the construction and property sector, the completed toll expressways is estimated to be about RM1.00 to 1.20 per share, disregard the government of the day for the next few decades.

Thought the new government has scrapped the idea of buying back all the tolls or to abolish tolled roads. Accumulate more?

Ekovest's toll roads is worth RM1.20 per share. Forget about construction and property. contribution. The price now is 55 sen. Even if we gave a discount of 25% on the toll roads, Ekovest estimated value is 90 sen. Upside potential is great, most negatives news already discounted.

FOMO?

A bit of positive sentiment is back. Could it be a major contract/JV/acquisition in progress?

Volatility. Friend or Foe? That is the theme for one of the investment seminar, sponsor by the largest bank in Malaysia. Consensus is, more volatility going forward. Friend or Foe, depends on the investors.

This stock was going down since early 2017 long way before GE14, not many are due to fundamental, Bandar Malaysia (more related to IWC), acquisition of IWC (voted out), same major shareholder of IWC (China land acquisition deal aborted), and many more since GE14. Not many are related to fundamental.

EPF pays RM1.13b for 40% interest of its DUKE Highway. Ekovest's 60% is worth about RM1.8b. New Government is not touching the toll. So, need not worry too much. Look at Litrak, top at 5.90, dropped to low of 3.60, now 4.50, only drop less than 25%. Did anyone decided not to take Litrak highway because PH won GE14? or BN loss GE14?

Now at 54 sen, Ekovest is only RM1.1b market cap. During this volatility market, surely there is some positive sentiment? (That may goes for many other stocks). I was told, foreign investors are coming back (hopefully this is a positive sentiment)

7.5 sen for the warrant is reasonable and has possible upside with only premium below 5% despite 5 months to expiry. Hopefully there are some positive sentiments over the next 5 months after almost a year of negativity.

Eko @ 53 sen, WB at 6.5 sen, at 2.8% premium, is it a good deal?

With 2 more quarters of announcements on results, if positive, both prices will likely goes up.

SMA200 @ 60.3 sen. May be good for trader at the moment. Can leverage on Warrants at 11 sen.

Volume appears good. May be a good chance to collect when it dip a bit this morning. Warrants still a bargain on the pretext the Dec 18 and Mar 19 quarter getting better and improved sentiment.

Lets hope the momentum can sustain up to 77 sen as per AffinHwang for the mother shares. Sentiment improved for construction. Ekovest WB at its peak is 124sen, now, 10.5sen. Long way to go. Even it doubled to 20 sen, it is still down by 84%.

OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTRARIAN INVESTORS TO INITIATE A "BOTTOM FISHING" STRATEGY ON EKOVEST-ACCUMULATE!

1. EKOVEST has retraced about 75% since the high of RM1.52 reached about 2 years ago. Pullback anticipated to have completed and the stock will resume on its prevailing uptrend in the near future;

2. MACD has crossed above the Signal line (“golden-cross”) which is a bullish signal;

3. RSI & Stochastic oversold - buying should come into play in the near-term;

4. Bullish divergence can be spotted on MACD, whereby prices made lower lows but MACD made a higher low;

5. Immediate target price is calculated to be around RM1.00;

6. Nonetheless, investors should take note that the first area of interest for possible profit taking activities would be around the RM0.77 level.

From AffinHwang (10 Jan 2019)

Ekovest WB at 8 sen, and exercise price at 48 sen, can be considered. However, bear in mind, its expiry is June this year. All it take is the mother moves up 5 sen, WB will be about 10 sen.

Sentiment for telco remained neutral amid any new blue print from the new government. Many may believe OCK falls under telco sector, in reality, OCK in one or two years time, its contributions from Towerco biz will exceed its sub-telco biz (UOB Kayhian (Jan2018) valuation of towerco:sub-telco is 70:30).

Towerco biz has some similarity to toll roads, they have long term sustainable cash flow, and also growing exponentially when it exceed certain breakeven capacity, which can only be seen in 2019 onwards. [Based on MD's view, the price deterioration lately is due uncertainty & sale by Shariah fund manager, and sentiment will recover when balance of Shariah fund managers sell off substantially].

Most construction companies recovered 20-30% from its low. Sentiment improves a little bit (at least for the construction sector). Those who bought construction sector warrants at its low may have gain 20-50%. Is there still opportunity in the warrants?

From Viet Nam News:

Last year, the market witnessed the growth of motor scooters. With the average income of the Vietnamese people increasing, they chose motor scooters rather than manual transmission motorcycles. For example, Yamaha Vietnam sold 177,025 motor scooters last year, up 15 per cent compared with 2016, occupying 11.3 per cent of the market share for motor scooters.

Read more at http://vietnamnews.vn/economy/421098/sale-of-motorcycles-up-in-2017-vamm.html#ZQJzxeyTbufpEM4b.99

HLI at RM8.50 or market cap of RM2.67b, estimated cash balance of RM1.1b by FYE, is value for money. Vietnma's biz appears ok, but last quarter dropped a bit. Info not available. At historical low.

Alibaba PE is 44x.