The Value Alliance has 8 different managements and how they can compete with only one management in Airasia in term of efficiency.Sure knock off.

Just plug figures into program, estimated worst case scenario profit for 1Q16 is about
Rm200 mil and best scenario case profit is exceed Rm300mil.

If AAX can make profit of more than Rm400 mil a year, why he need to raise the money from shareholders. (Just raise Rm 390 mil last year) No logic to do that. The share price go up, most properly will has good earning prospect in the future.

Youkian2. I supported you.

Malaysia currency dropped from 3.21(USD/MYR) dated 1/7/2014 to 4.45 dated 30/9/2015. Total lost in currency( Rm 1.24 or 38%) during the period for AAX was Rm562 mil. Dated 31/12/2015, the rate improved to 4.29 and AAX recovered the currency by Rm 57 mil. By 31/3/2016, the rate further improved to 3.87, expected currency gain is about Rm170 next quarter.

The saving from oil consumption as compared between Airbus 320( narrow body) and 330(long range) is about 15% based on ARK. A320 plane can fly maximum distance of 5-6 hours. If longer than the distance, they have to has 1 stop before can fly to destination. To me, if I want to go to Melbourne or Sydney, I have to has a stop over at Bali, Indonesia, before continue to destination. If I have choice, I will not take the airline and definitely AAX can bring me there directly. The airline want to compete with AAX for the long haul distance, may face problems in fare and comfort.

AAX expected to announce profit after Tax in exceed of RM 200 mil for 1Q16 and will be better than 4Q15, why worry? People negative with intention.

AA will suspend trading tomorrow pending announcement. Will the announcement be to privatize AAX?

Radzi, my estimation is slightly less than Rm 300 mil. Quite close. Thank

Radzi, I estimated the fuel saving for 1Q16 is Rm 50 mil as compared to 4Q15.

Thank. Hope they will understand we are the shareholders.

Radzi, my estimation of PAT is also in exceed of Rm200 mil for 1Q16 and many people will has the same estimation. But, the share price seem like cap at about Rm0.31 and big boy don't like the price to go over. Worry me is that the big boy want to privatise the company similar to Tiger air by Singapore airline. We are not knowing how many % the big boy had collected. If he has more than 90%, he will fix the price for us.

Don't sell to them at present low price. When they have 90%, we are all gone too.

Singapore Airlines Limited (SGX:C6L) made an offer to acquire the remaining 45.97% stake in Tiger Airways Holdings Limited (SGX:J7X) for approximately SGD 520 million in cash on November 6, 2015. Under the terms of the offer, Singapore Airlines Limited will acquire 1.11 billion shares for SGD 0.41 per share. Tiger Airways Offers will be funded by the internal cash resources of Singapore Airlines Limited. DBS confirms that sufficient financial resources are available to Singapore Airlines to satisfy in full, all acceptances of the offer. Singapore Airlines already holds 55.8% stake in Tiger Airways Holdings. Singapore Airlines intends to delist and compulsorily acquire all the remaining shares of Tiger Airways Holdings, if it reaches a threshold of owning 90% stake in Tiger Airways. The offer is conditional upon Singapore Airlines owning more than 90% of Tiger Airways by the close of the offer and the approval in-principle for the dealing in, listing of and quotation of the new SIA shares to be issued in connection with the offer. The offer is not subject to any other condition. Independent Directors recommend the shareholder to accept the offer. Singapore Airlines is not required to seek the approval of its shareholders for the offer. As announced on November 19, 2015, the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited has approved the listing and quotation up to 12.5 million shares of Singapore Airlines on the official list of Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. The offer will close on December 28, 2015. As of December 28, 2015, the offer's close date was extended from December 28, 2015, to January 8, 2015. As of January 4, 2016, the agreement was amended. The offer price has been increased from SGD 0.41 per share to SGD 0.45 per share and the closing date has been extended from January 8, 2016 to January 22, 2016. As on January 10, 2016, DBS Bank declares that the offer has been declared unconditional and the closing has been extended to January 22, 2016. As on January 21, 2016, the transaction was approved by SGX ST. As of January 28, 2016, Singapore Airlines has 85.62% stake in Tiger Airways. The offer will close February 5, 2016. As on February 5, 2016, the closing of the offer was extended. As of February 19, 2016, the offer closing has been extended to February 26, 2016. As of February 19, 2016, Singapore Airlines has 95.12% stake in Tiger Airways. As on February 25, 2016, Singapore Airlines has 95.35% stake in Tiger Airways. As on February 26, 2016, Singapore Airlines has 95.58% stake in Tiger Airways. As of February 26, 2016, the offer closing has been extended to March 4, 2016. DBS Bank Ltd. acted as the financial advisor for Singapore Airlines Limited. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte. Ltd. acted as financial advisor for Tiger Airways Holdings Limited. Boardroom Corporate & Advisory Services Pte. Ltd. acted as registrar for Tiger Airways. Rachel Eng, Andrew Ang, Mark Choy and Tan Sue-Lynn of Wong Partnership acted as legal advisor for Tiger Airways Holdings Limited. Central Depository (Pte) Limited acted as a depository bank to Tiger Airways. As of March 10, 2016, Singapore Airlines announced a compulsory acquisition of the remaining shares. Singapore Airlines Limited (SGX:C6L) completed the acquisition of remaining 45.97% stake in Tiger Airways Holdings Limited (SGX:J7X) on March 4, 2016. Singapore Airlines has acquired 95.62% stake in Tiger Airways and will acquire the remaining through compulsory acquisition.

声東击西. Market talk of privatisation Airasia.

TF, CIMB and Khazana will be in a group to organise the takeover bid for AAX. CIMB will use the private accounts to corner the AAX share and later sold to Khazana at may be Rm0.41(guess only). If they managed to collect more than 90% of the balance share holding, they will definitely success in privatisation.

TF definitely will not sell to them as their borrowing margin is much higher than Rm0.41 and they will be partner. So they are not able to vote in the privatisation. By the time, they can decide at whatever price they fixed. So we can't sell to them now. Personal view only.

I think that Certain group with CIMB wish to privatise the AAX instead of Airasia. Then, the group will has joint partner with Airasia. From the trading pattern, AAX share has been cornered, not the Airasia. The case is quite similar to SIA takeover the Tiger Air except not from main share holder and the offer price may be silimar too at Rm0.41. To privatise, the group has only required Rm833 mil for the balance 49% share and it is definitely not a problem to Khazana whom own 100% of MAlaysia Airline Berhad. Personal view only.

I think that Certain group with CIMB wish to privatise the AAX instead of Airasia. Then, the group will has joint partner with Airasia. From the trading pattern, AAX share has been cornered, not the Airasia. The case is quite similar to SIA takeover the Tiger Air and the offer price may be silimar too at 0.41. To privatise, the group has only required Rm833 mil for the balance 49% share and it is definitely not a problem to Khazana whom own 100% of MAlaysia Airline Berhad. Don't sell now, wait for their announcement. Personal view only.

Foreigners go for holiday(good Friday) today and will come back on Monday. Start to move up again next week.

Radzi, my predict of AAX profit 1Q16 is slightly more than Rm 200 millions. Very close.

With Jan+Feb, 2016 passengers arrival at KLIA2 was 3.3millions and expected to reach 5.0 millions for the 1Q16 which exceeded 4Q15 of 4.82 millions passengers. However, Malindo was moved over to KLIA on mid of March, expected March arrival will be slightly reduced. Based on the data and estimate AAX passengers carry for 1Q16 is about 1.0 million. Load factor is expected to be 83%. Estimate fare is about Rm530 and ancillary of Rm139 per passenger, all cost maintain at per last quarter,except fuel cost huge reduction, operating profit shall be as good as 4Q15. Plus currency gain, next quarter profit will exceed Rm200 millions.( as good as last quarter)

"Airasia X is growing again. Ben and his team have done a great job and (we are) going to surprise all those negative analysts,” Fernandes said.

The word "negative analysts" is very interesting. They are very negative about prospects of AAX and will surprise about the coming financial result. This mean that the result will be good and turn around.

The average cost of jet fuel for 4Q15 is estimated at USD 70/barrel. Hedging at 54%@USD 83.65 and 46%@USD 53/barrel( spot average cost for October to dec, 2015).

Base on 995000 passengers and load factor of 80%, the seat capacity is about 1243000 or 2.8% better than last quarter. No increase on nos of planes but slight improvement in efficiency.

Based on international jet fuel price, the average fuel price for July to Sept, 2015 was about USD60/ barrel and the hedging price for AAX was USD 83@57%, the average fuel cost for 3Q15 was supposed to be USD73/barrel instead of USD 82 as per quarterly report. The management must be bought forward the loses to 3Q15.

Based on KLIA2 international passengers arrival of 4.77 millions for 4Q15 and from previous quarterly result, 20.85% of passengers were from AAX, or 995K. From 3Q15 presentation indicated the base rate improved at 15% or RM 460 (4Q14) x 1.15=Rm 530 per passengers and ancillary revenue of Rm 130 based on load factor of 80%. Revenue from ticketing expected to achieve Rm657 million. Non ticketing as per 3Q15 was Rm281 million and total revenue for 4Q15 will exceed Rm 940 million. Cost wise, you can estimate from previous quarter and work out the operation profit of more than Rm 100 million.

Wait to see.

Expected to make profit of exceeding RM100 millions in 4Q15.

2Q15, RPK only 3893 millions as compared 4333 millions. Passengers carried were 901884 as compared to 810944 in 2Q15.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 9): AirAsia Bhd ( Valuation: 1.20, Fundamental: 0.20)'s long-haul, low-cost airline affiliate AirAsia X Bhd (AAX) (Valuation: 0.30, Fundamental: 0.20) carried 14% less passengers for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2015 (3QFY15) at 901,884 compared with 1.04 million a year ago, in line with the decline in capacity of 7%.

In a statement today, AAX said its passenger load factor also fell by 6 percentage points (ppt) to 75% from 81% a year ago.

AAX attributed the decline to the spillover effect from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak since May that had resulted in passenger traffic from Kuala Lumpur to Seoul and Busan falling by 14% year-on-year in 3QFY15.

The challenging aviation regulation in Indonesia also posted slight drag in Australia's passenger traffic as uncertainties arise towards AAX Group's brand in Australia but immediate comeback is seen after the licensing issue resolved by early October 2015.

In addition to that, the depreciation of the ringgit against the US dollar in 3QFY15 has set temporary slide in the outbound travel demands to stronger currency markets, especially at the end of July to August 2015 when the exchange rate exceeded the 4.00 US dollar mark to hit its lowest at 4.48 in end-September.

As for its fleet, AAX operates 26 Airbus A330s as at Sept 30, 2015, with 20 based in Malaysia, four in Thailand and two in Indonesia.

AAX shares closed unchanged at 20.5 sen today, valuing it at RM850.4 million.

SinGor, I think TF had gone through the most difficult path in life 13 years ago and the situation now, in our politic, he might be disappointed after to see our currency to depreciate so much and may lose quite substantially amount in the coming future. But, i am confident that TF will not sell off his business and instead he will join our politic for his next career.

For the 2Q15, the average USD/MYR was about 3.68 as compared to 1Q15 of 3.62. The currency exchange loss for 2Q15 was expected to be Rm 25 millions. For Airasia, the borrowing was Rm 13.1 billion, with 90% borrowing is in USD, the exchange loss is coming to Rm 200 millions.

Exchange loss was reduced by Rm 60 millions compared to 1Q15, couple with load factor in creased by 6% or additional of another Rm 48 millions in revenue, others maintained as 1Q15, expected 2Q15 result will be around break even.

美元升值对亚航的影响
从2015年1月至3月，马币从1USD 换RM3.51贬到了3月的1USD换RM3.611。

由于亚航的131亿的债务大多是以USD计算，马币贬值造成了需要还的债务变多。意思是以前欠1 USD还RM3.51，现在需要还RM3.611。所以会看到unrealized loss on foreign exchange （3.611-3.51 x 对冲比率x 债务）。

Unrealised 的意思是公司还没有还的但是先算下去，日后如果USD跌的话，我们就会看到unrealized gain on foreign exchange。虽然这笔钱算在income statement成为亏损，但是真正来讲公司现在是不需要付任何钱的。

如果外汇保持稳定，那么这个foreign exchange loss其实是一次性的，如果马币升值，说不定下一季还会有unrealized gain on foreign exchange。

Airline business is very sensitive to load factor and ticket pricing. An increase of Rm 10.00 in ticket price, revenue will increase by Rm 10 million per quarter and an increase of 1 % in load factor, revenue will increase by Rm 8 million per quarter for AAX at the present moment. Most of the expenses is fixed cost and variable cost is minimum if number of planes maintained. So when load factor and ticket price increase, the profit increase tremendously. If in opposing direction, the loses is also very heavy. So route and frequency adjustment is become very important and I think AAX management is doing quite well. Fuel price up or down will also affect quite significant to the result. Every one USD drop in price will translate into Rm 3.4 million in profit or loses per quarter.

Load factor for Rynair was increased to 92% last quarter ( End of June,2015) and profit was 245 million Euro .

SinGor, fully agreed with you that US will not let its business environment be uncompetitive and push down its dollar when too high. But, this round, our politic is bit chaotic and may further erode our currency rate. I am still positive to AAX as load factor will go higher if currency drop will encourage more tourists to arrive. Ticket price will go higher if load factor is increased. Currency drop is just a temporary set back in profit and when rate come back, bigger profit will realize.

Jet fuel further dropped to USD 61 on 27/7/2015. Cost saving for 3 months as compared to 1Q15 is Rm 40 millions.

Load factor is good. Fuel price is lower. Now, ticketing price and ancillary price will be last factor for turn around.

SinGor, agreed with you that the trading pattern was done by big player accumulation.

Passengers arrival at Klia2 increased by 2% in April to June, 2015. Chinese tourists arrival also had double digit growth during the period. AAX fly many destinations to China.

SinGor, agreed with you. Tony will report good 2Q15 result next month. All data indicated turn around.

SinGor, agreed with you that big player was accumulating the share for quite some time. Before 14/7/2015, the big player was throwing down small unit almost every minutes to force weak players to liquidate. Price was closing down half to one cent daily. Then on 15/7/2015, the big player changed the tactic of playing, accumulating with buying up.

Price of jet fuel has dropped to USD 63/ barrel on 20/7/2015 or USD 10 lower than 2Q15.

I did quite detail study of the counter and tabulation of company accounting. I am buying into the counter(only stock hold) as the price has no much room to go down and lot of room to go up. Worth to take the risk as next quarter result coming out next month.

The hedging jet fuel price for 2Q15 is USD 84 per barrel at 50% of consumption and the average spot jet fuel price for 2Q15 is USD 74/ barrel. Therefore, the average fuel price is USD 79.00 as compared to 1Q15 was USD 84. The cost saving as compared to 2Q14 is about Rm 120 million and compared to 1Q15 is about Rm 18 million. The spot jet fuel price for last few day had further dropped to USD 66.

If 2Q15 average passenger fare is same as 1Q15 at Rm 500 and ancillary revenue per passenger of Rm 140, the revenue for 2Q15 will go up to Rm 850 million if load factor can achieve at 80%.
Profit after tax for the quarter will be about Rm 40 million if all cost maintained as 1Q15.

Fuel expenses against revenue ratio had dropped from 53% last year to 35% in first quarter, 2015 and will further drop to 33% in coming quarter. Average USD against Ringgit was further dropped to 3.70 for the 2nd quarter,2015 as compared to AAX provision of 3.62 in 1Q15. Therefore, currency lost will be expected to be Rm 25 million in coming quarter. If load factor can achieve at 80% and all cost maintain at level of 1Q15, expected 2Q15 result will be turn around to positive.

Bought another 400k @0.30 today. Down limited.

Feel no good to expose my holding. I will pick up Right issue as I am confident that the company will turn around soon.

kensen, you must be very busy looking for information. My philosophy of buying share is very simple. I will start buying when I think the company financial will turn around soon.

I bought some AAX share last week in expected turn around and better result in coming few quarter financial result. 1) Every USD 10.00 drop per barrel in jet fuel is equivalent to saving of Rm140 million. Ryanair lately hedging at USD 68.00 per barrel for year 2017, there will be great cost saving down the line. AAX also hedging 50% of fuel at USD 98 this year and loses had been provided last quarter was Rm 107 millions.(lost has been taken care)
2) the provision of currency lost for last quarter was Rm 157 million. My opinion, the worst for our currency is over now and will slowly recover back. The result may not shown as good this quarter, however, it will turn around soon.