Those contra gain, he show off.. those contra loss, he keep quite. Wat a joker tuition teacher, living in his world of shame

After aug result, u wil know it is a trap

pls rebound to 8.50. i wan to sell for profit

strong rebound

Open up. Close down

Project with lower value.. ada good profit margin meh.. dun blindly chase

Apa hal. Lrt3 jalan balik ka

Wil drop,back. Big sharks bought a,lot below,rm9. Anytime they can sell to cover their loses. Dun blindly chase

Drop to 1.50, naive sorchai topup n said gkent wont die. Now 1.08. I think gkent wont die but the sorchai oredi dead. Kikiki

Scam counter

Good px to buy now? R u kiding... next few dayd huge volume coming. Margin call

If this time no suport, definitely wil below,rm3

Pangsai, u beter leave stock market

But shame on u. Li kar shing richer than u.

Gila punya pangsai. 24 hrs stock market. X payah tidur ke. Li kar shing pun x ada hardworking mcm dia..

Then u pushup to rm20 la

No need to promote glove lagi la. All expensive valuation now

U ingat saje bursa malaysia down saje ka. Look at hkex, shanghai composite, sgx, jakarta. All multi month low. So itu pun masalah gov pakatan harapan ka. Guna la otak sikit. Jgn x dpt berak, salahkan lantai keras. Kikikiki

at last, rubber bubble burst... prepare to die all die hard fans of topglove, harta, supermax n kossan

dulu kan kata ada arab kaya donate bilion ringit. cari arab tu saje la.. apasal mintak rakyat donate.. bodoh

Y no pas guy come out n say sth about najib son drinking red wine? Last time got one malay lady kata nak sebat di depan public? Y no muslim ulamak come out n di action?

Stop promoting la pangsai. U x letih ke. 24 hrs promoting. Pergi la relax relax la. Pergi shoping la. Ur life so boring ka. No other thing to do meh

Bro, jgn marah new gov. Look at jakarta n sgx. Both oso down sharply on fri

Wont close shop but reduce profit due to competition n margin presure. Outlook no good. Beter bet genting. At least got growth story

u dun overconfident.. slowly drop, itu yg killing

selling across the board...

never hold for too long now... any good profit is sell

game over. klci sold down

all manipulation. push up press down by sharks

selling very fierce

drop back to 3.1?

c can absorb or not the huge volume due

buy la. 345 to 346

tipu la oasys.. itu la i pakai last time

dulu baush n lomb, acuvue pun cakap comfortable. i pergi beli n pakai, mana ada comfortable.. pedih saje mata.. sampai i pun give up pakai

u ingat sangat baik ke pakai contact lense everyday 10 hrs like tat. mau taruh ubat ubat lagi kat mata... lama lama cancel mata baru tau

y? trump ada anouncement ke? wat time?

bila mau oficial open impression melaka theatre?

bila trade war start? y must wait for 2 hrs?

advertisement mesti cakap comfortable to wear la.. u try ask other ppl, almost all said pakai sampai mata sakit.. if u dun believe, u try wear 10 hrs, c how? mata merah merah

agree with apoloang. technical rebound saje, whem outlook is not so good, dun hope share px to revisit above 4

beter jgn pakai contact lense la.. make ur eye sakit saje... not good for eye health if wearing for long hrs.

now the px is suported by big sharks speculator, once they pull out, the effect wil be very catastrophic. think triple b4 u sailang

Rubber Gloves - Valuations Above Fundamentals

Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Fri, 6 Jul 2018, 09:25 AM




Reiterate UNDERWEIGHT due to rich PER valuations and flat sequential earnings growth. Rubber glove stocks under our coverage have performed well since early 2017 till now, led by HARTA (+116%), TOPGLV (+139%) and KOSSAN (+24%). Anecdotal evidence suggests that rubber gloves stocks’ share price rally was led largely by massive PER expansion compared to pedestrian earnings growth over the past eight quarters. Our analysis suggests that strong surge in price movements of the glove stocks have been mainly due to changes in the P/E multiple and not so much on earnings growth. Near-term headwinds including gas tariff hikes, and potential higher minimum wage could derail earnings. On the flipside, key upside risk is stronger-than-expected demand. We have UNDERPERFORM calls on HARTA (UP; TP: RM5.00); TOPGLV (UP; TP: RM9.40); KOSSAN (UP; TP: RM6.85) and SUPERMX (UP; TP: RM2.20).

Valuations stretched at mid-teens to high-teens valuations. Rubber glove stocks under our coverage have performed well since 2017, until now, led by HARTA (+116%), TOPGLV (+139%) and KOSSAN (+24%) in line with the strong demand and a more stable supply-demand dynamics underpinning earnings recovery. Due to the run-up in share prices, the PER valuations appear stretched vis-à-vis earnings growth. However, earnings growths of rubber gloves players are growing at an average of between -1% and 10% over the past eight quarters. We believe the share prices have appreciated ahead in anticipation of the upcoming quarter reporting season.

Massive PER expansion but pedestrian earnings growth over the past eight quarters and 12-month period. Anecdotal evidence suggests that rubber gloves stocks’ share price rally was led largely by massive PER expansion compared to pedestrian earnings growth over the past eight quarters and 12-month period. The chart below depicts that price movements of the glove stocks were mainly due to changes in the P/E multiple and not so much on earnings growth. For example, Hartalega’s PER expanded from 18x to 40x but EPS only rose an average 10% over the past eight sequential quarters. Similarly, Top Glove’s PER expanded from 17x to 30x but EPS only averaged 9% growth over the past eight quarters.

Capacity slowly building up again. Following a period of capacity consolidation starting back in mid-year 2016, which led to falling ASPs, nascent signs of glove-makers ramping up capacities are emerging again. The robust demand is attracting players to ramp up production. In anticipation of higher demand and switching from vinyl gloves, players are raising capacities again.

Demand led across the board mainly from nitrile and natural rubber. From our checks with rubber glove players under our coverage, demand is mainly from nitrile and natural rubber instead of vinyl. Contrary to market expectations of a massive industry switch from vinyl to rubber gloves, Top Glove’s 2Q18/6M18 demand growth was led largely by emerging markets that are not predominant vinyl glove consumers. Specifically, demand growth for natural rubber gloves stems from emerging markets, where healthcare awareness and hygiene standards are rising steadily, particularly Asia (ex-Japan) and Eastern Europe, which respectively saw 60% and 40% boost in sales volume for 1H18 compared with 1H17 of which they are not vinyl gloves consuming nations.

Potential headwinds from minimum wage. We expect headwinds including potential higher minimum wage which could derail earnings of glove players. Any hike in the minimum wage could derail glove players’ earnings since labour accounts for 9% of production cost. For illustrative purposes, if the present minimum wage is hiked by 50% to RM1,500/month, ceteris paribus, assuming ‘a no cost pass-through’ scenario, the minimum wage policy is expected to hit glove players’ bottom-lines by 3-12% on a full-year basis based on our back-of-the-envelope calculations. However, in the past, glove makers had managed to gradually pass cost through via higher ASPs.


















Reiterate UNDERWEIGHT. Anecdotal evidence suggests that rubber gloves stocks’ share price rally was led largely by massive PER expansion in view of the pedestrian earnings growth over the past eight quarters and 12-month period. Our analysis suggests that price movements have been mainly due to changes in the P/E multiple, and not so much on earnings growth. We have UNDERPERFORM calls on HARTA (UP; TP: RM5.00); TOPGLV (UP; TP: RM9.40); KOSSAN (UP; TP: RM6.85); and SUPERMX (UP; TP: RM2.20).

KEY POINTS

Valuations stretched at high-teens valuations. Rubber glove stocks under our coverage have performed well starting from 2017, until now, led by HARTA (+116%), TOPGLV (+139%) and KOSSAN (+24%) in line with the strong demand and a more stable supply-demand dynamics which underpinned earnings recovery. We believe our initial analysis of a more stable

The 21% qoq core profit growth in 3QFY18 trumped expectations on lower-thananticipated raw material costs and the acquisition of Aspion being completed a month earlier than expected. Nevertheless, we stay bearish on the stock as valuations are rich and risk-reward profile is unfavourable. Within our coverage, Top Glove is the secondpriciest proxy to the sector. Also, it is trading at more than +2SD its 5-year forward PE. Maintain SELL but at a higher target price of RM8.40.

The 21% qoq core profit growth in 3QFY18 trumped expectations on lower-thananticipated raw material costs and the acquisition of Aspion being completed a month earlier than expected. Nevertheless, we stay bearish on the stock as valuations are rich and risk-reward profile is unfavourable. Within our coverage, Top Glove is the secondpriciest proxy to the sector. Also, it is trading at more than +2SD its 5-year forward PE. Maintain SELL but at a higher target price of RM8.40.

I never touch call warant. No mater how many thounsand percent u said profit, I oso,not interested

When everyone is turininh positive is a selling sign

Back to square one. Those who never sell when 1.50,all paper gain vanish. Those who chase high need,to wait for another 15 years

tomorow n mon huge volum coming..