Next time be careful uncle. Dont simply say nonsense without any facts later get sued then u know

Just wondering which quarter shows profit margin up to 70%. As far as i can see their profit margin varies from -11% to around 25% for the last 5 years very inconsistent

@Dannyfyl88. TG wont drop to 0.1 please be reasonable.

IBs are slowly disposing their position hence as you can see TG has lower n lower volume each month since beginning of the year.

Yes IBs will still buy n sell TG but only for trading purposes. How do u suppose the price to go up like that? Now TG are top net sell by foreign and local funds this month, while retailers are net buyers. U need big funds to buy n hold TG (not trading) for price to go up

Our Bursabets are organised by IBs who want to sell their tickets to retailers at high price rm7. Too bad many retailers got trapped till now.

U want TG to go up and punish shorties?? Easy... Convince 127,000 shareholders of TG (this is based on TG latest report) to buy 2000 shares and hold them for at least 6 months till HK listing

127,000 * 2000 = 254million shares (slightly more shares than shorties have shorted). Will this ever happened? Simply no cause there will be too many retailers that will cash out

When people saying IBs are slowly accumulating TG, where did that info come from?

In fact it is our local institutions (IBs) that has been selling TG since beginning of the year. Check the most recent CIMB funds flow report.

Where is the next support level for TG? 4 or 3.5?

This Uncle is like a tour guide - love to bring people to Holland. Remember Dayang and recently Supermax???

When Uncle Koon ask to buy it means he wants to sell. Poh Kong impressive last quarter result wont be repeated anymore. Look at gold price now keep dropping and yet uncle ask to buy. What a joker!

Ask yourself which is the likely scenario:

TG go up to rm6 or higher
Or
TG go down to rm4 or lower

Based on what TG CEO mentioned in the last report, glove ASP is going to soften in next few months. So next quarter NP (net profit) will be less than 2 billion (unless they can sort CBP issues in this coming weeks which I highly doubt so)

Back then in March even with quarter NP of 2.9billion, TG drops to 4.5. So with lower NP next quarter do u think TG will go back up? Think again

I think the CBP issues will be lifted by end of year or at least till the shorties managed to cover their position. But by then it will be too late, demand will go down substantially, market already lose interest.

The timing of CBP seize TG gloves twice this year when TG share price jst started to recover is a bit too of a coincidence in my opinion, most likely the shorties n CBP are all "kawan"

@bsstradeer I agree with you.

I estimate TG to reach around rm800million net profit per year (twice of its prepandemic profit of rm400million a year). Slightly lower than your estimate putting into account extra capacity from Malaysia, China n Thailand.

And yet someone accuse me of picking number from the sky lol

As famous investor once mentioned: "Never fall in love with a stock; always have an open mind." Peter Lynch

@UlarSawa exactly, no one can predict not even TanSri himself and yet our friend yttihs like to predict about TG. Bravo!!

@yttihs yes u believe u r smarter than most of us here.

I also remember that u predict in 28 May that June dividend to be above 30cents while in fact it is only 18cents (40% difference). Stop misleading people

I suggest u do your homework n recalculate

Fact is big funds both local n foreign funds have been disposing TG since late April while retailers absorb it (see CIMB weekly report).

If u want to average down please do it - your money not mine.

But when the share pice drop is more than your dividend received, you actually lose money (example look at BAT high dividend but price keeps getting lower)

In Feb TG price rm6.2 minus dividend in March and June (25.2cents + 18cents) your actual cost is rm5.77 vs current price of rm4.65

High dividend yield will still make u lose money if share price keeps dropping cause the market adjust it accordingly

@GlovesOff Yes back then I thought our local bursa will replicate the situation as with Gamestop to punish short sellers. But boy I was proven wrong. During the 29 Jan 2021 rally, most sellers come from retailers themselves after only few days rally.

Again never expected TG last qtr to be so bad due to CBP n lower than expected ASP. But maybe the shorties have predict this otherwise they wont dare to short 250million shares

Even both Intco and TG HK listing are both delayed cause the investors appetite is no longer there.

Yes TG is still a profitable company but at what price? Foreign and local funds have slowly disposing TG while retailers absorb it. If u think it is cheap, why the big funds keep disposing it

I used to believe TG will reach its fair valution of PE7 (share price would be rm7) when they listed in HK cause that time Intco China was trading at PE10.

It makes sense for HK and China investors to buy TG shares since it is cheaper valuation wise. But now Intco China only command PE of 3.3 which is cheaper than TG currently.

Glove fans will shout this drop in price is due to shorties, IBs, warrants expiring etc etc but truth to be told the market already move on

Why RSS need to worry? They have been selling TG since Jan till now (i assuming their avg is around 5.7). Now the price is 4.75, they are laughing all the way to the bank. Interest fees for RSS is around 5% per annum (not significant at all)

Plus they can close their position via DBT (direct business transaction) without affecting the share price at all as they have done in the past. Not sure why some people keep saying shorties will piss in their pants etc etc.
U think when shorties put 250million on TG to short sell they never done their research??

If this is wallstreetbets yes the shorties will be scared. But this is bursa where unfortunately we only have small no of retailers. Most of our retailers are not even united (they are either day traders or on margin)

Not sure why malaysia investors still relate TG ADR to our local TG share price. They are not related at all. It is TG ADR OTC (Over The Counter)

Over-the-counter (OTC) is done directly between two parties, WITHOUT the supervision of an exchange.
It is contrasted with exchange trading, which occurs via exchanges. A stock exchange has the benefit of facilitating liquidity, providing transparency, and maintaining the current market price.

Means that the spike up in TG ADR price (left pocket to right pocket) is just a bait to trap retailers, unfortunately some retailers get trapped last Monday

Thanks for your reply Ben. But again the difference between your report and CIMB (dated 17 May) is less than a month.
Dont tell me within a month the retail fund switch position of net sell of PBB 1.575billion to highest net buy for PBB, I find it very unlikely.

Unless the domestic institutional investors u mentioned above doesnt include EPF

Lol reject their consensus ??? Why dont u look at the latest analysis from UOB, Public Bank and Maybank. Dont get stuck in your Frost n Sullivan report.

But again you n me have different opinion in ASP. Yours definitely very bullish on it while I rather take a safe side on it. You make a call which is wrong back in 28 May, then well lets see whether my call is correct or not based on TG next quarter

Consensus means nothing. They will change once the data is there. Are u saying that since most analysts put "consensus" of TP for TG between rm8-9 back in Jan, we should follow them. Obviously this is proven wrong.

So your idea of consensus is ridiculous purely based on Frost n Sullivan report only. Anyway your opinion vs the market, we will see who prevail

Based on your recent post 28 May

Stock: [TOPGLOV]: TOP GLOVE CORP BHD

May 28, 2021 3:40 PM | Report Abuse

This quarter should be one of the best quarter. I am expecting RM0.3X (or something very close to 0.30) dividend. Rubberex result should says it all.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is proven that most people including u n me never expect glove ASP to drop so much within few months. I was expecting a flattish quarter report by TG (not a 29% drop) but again market react differently. The ASP did drop substantially

Regarding the consensus of rm2.5billion profit, remember few months back where most analysts forecast TG profit to be in excess of rm10billion for FY21. Current 3 quarters profit for TG is 7.3billion which means in order to have rm10billion, next quarter TG need to have a profit of 2.7billion??? I highly doubt so based on what TG CEO has been telling us.

It is just matter of time before analysts downgrade their profit forecast of rm2.5billion

Btw this is not plugging figure from the sky. All data is available on bursa

Well it is proven time n time again market underestimate that glove ASP to drop faster.

Almost all analysts who cover TG never expect TG last quarter to drop by 29% due to CBP issue and ASP which drop faster than anyone expected.

That is why you see all analysts downgraded their target price on TG. Why you believe Frost and Sullivan report where clearly they are being paid by TG for their HK listing report. Actually the current glove ASP is even lower than research done by Frost n Sullivan (I guess they never took into account these 2 things: vaccination that is going faster than expected hence lower urgency of countries to get glove at its current price and CBP ban that has been dragging forever)

Frost and Sullivan report vs Public Bank, UOB, Maybank report?? I rest my case

Lets say TG will earn its profit at a double rate -100% from its pre-pandemic level in 2023/2024 (this is an optimistic estimation considering there will be excess capacity coming from new glove players locally, china n thailand in 2-3 years time).

Historically its quarterly profit is at between 75-115million (based on 2019 to early 2020 figure). So we safe to assume at 100% increase in profit is around 800million/year (100million x 2 x 4qtrs). Yes I know TG will increase its capacity in 2023/2024 but with a declining ASP and increased competition I say it is a zero sum game.

Historical average PE for TG is around 20.

So at current market cap of 39billion divided by projected earnings of 800million, we get a PE of 48.75 (lets round it to 50 for easier calculation)

So at current price u basically paying more than double of what it is worth.
50/20 = 2.5 times extra exactly. So u guys think it is still cheap?? If u think it is, it is time to walk the talk n buy more

@somo1 yah i think the cbp will drag on and on and on. Plus as u say our government is weak not doing anything to help TG. I think the shorties know that the CBP will take forever to resolve that is why they dare to short TG (close to 250million shares).

Definitely they know something that most retailers dont otherwise they will close their position by now. Meanwhile some retailers still dreaming for TG to reach rm8 or even rm10. Move on guys!!

@jasonred79 yup i think another 30% - 50% drop is reasonable but that depends whether the CBP is going to be lifted or not. If not, u have to consider further discount due to loss of sales to North America region which commands highest ASP

@alaincheong of course but will the high ASP TG experiencing in 2020 and first half of 2021 be repeated in the next few quarters?

Based on their latest quarter (drop of 29% qoq) I dont think so, hence the drop in share price is justified.

Anyway during this pandemic most people forget that TG price has shoot up significantly. From 1.50 in Jan 2020 (taking into account before bonus issue) to 4.8 now, that is more than 300% increase already.

Let's say next year they earn 100% more profit (which I highly doubt so due to increase capacity from china n other competitors) compared to pre-pandemic price so price would be 1.5 * 2 = RM3.00 (max) not 4.8

So I think there is more room for the share price to drop some more.

Ya it is 10billion gloves only. Even Mah Sing alone is going to produce more than that this year, havent even considering the extra capacity the big 4 is expanding this year.

So what happen to the extra capacity? Sell them for slightly cheaper price loh, hence the drop in ASP

What happen to the people who shout limit UP on Monday?

Maybe just maybe the people who shout limit UP and the people who shout limit DOWN are the same people hired by syndicate to trap retailers?

Since when the world has 50 billion population?? Latest figure is 7.9billion.
Both glove naysayers and glove supporters, please talk with facts n figures (dont simply pick a number from the sky).

Plus not all countries require glove during vaccination. Most EU countries doesnt require nurses or doctors to wear gloves when administering vaccine

Sign of desperation by sydnicate to try to push the price up for retailers to get trapped.

The only catalyst that can push TG price up is CBP being lifted so they can list in HK soon.
Hopefully by then the covid cases up is still up otherwise it is too late as well. I think this is what the shorties is hoping for

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/analysts-cut-earnings-forecasts-top-glove-after-imputing-lower-glove-asps

Even MIDF one of the most bullist analyst on TG cut its target price sharply from 8.29 to 5.73

Pump and dump tactic by sydnicate, hopefully no retailers get trap this time around

Crazy these syndicate. Push up in the morning to trap retailers, now they exit the boat already left ikan bilis to dry up. No mercy in bursa

The best is yet to come? U notice Tansri never put that quotation in his statement anymore???

Cause he knows the best is over already as shown in the last quarter (down by 29%)

That is the problem with our retailers, mostly are day traders. They have few cents profits they already sell, how to limit up like this. Today mostly are big funds selling and buying while trapping retailers who chase high. Easy money for them

TA Securities on Topglove latest target price

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://eresearchsystem.bursamalaysia.com/eResearch/webdownload.pub%3Fid%3D33104&ved=2ahUKEwio-oajvZTxAhXUV30KHdhjDs0QFjADegQIGxAC&usg=AOvVaw2-Tw7pXShcZJNBp3gxO_-h&cshid=1623582907576

Hi Ben. There is some conflicting data between yours and CIMB as shown in here:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cgscimb-retail-investors-turned-weekly-net-seller-first-time-year

CIMB mentioned that local retail fund flows showed Public Bank Bhd as the largest net buy stock year-to-date (YTD) while the largest net sell was Genting Bhd. While in your data above it shows the other way around, mind to explain?

Not sure why people get excited over this TG ADR news, the volume is there is so low. Left pocket to right pocket.

This could be another trap by shorties so they can sell high tickets to retailers. In the end those who buy high will sell lower, your loss becomes shorties profit. Dont let them!!

Who dares to buy?

Someone that is crazy enough to chase high.

There always be new buyer/victim

Not planning to get trap again like in 29 Jan 2021. Bloody hell back then they even create a telegram group ask retailers to push it to rm7, what happens after that? Price crash after they managed to sell high tickets to us retailers

Awang Daud: I sold Serba Dinamik shares due to margin call

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/awang-daud-i-sold-serba-dinamik-shares-due-margin-call-%C2%A0%C2%A0

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/awang-daud-i-sold-serba-dinamik-shares-due-margin-call-%C2%A0%C2%A0

Dropping to rm3.50 is very unlikely. There will be supp at rm4 but if that is broken i dont know what to say

I m to disagree with the above statement although USA is only 4% of the population, they are the biggest glove user in the world by far. Topglove need to solve the CBP issue as soon as possible otherwise the HK listing wont go ahead hence the price wont go up

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2021/06/697578/top-gloves-9m-earnings-miss-estimates-glove-prices-continue-falling-rhb

Top Glove's 9M earnings miss estimates, glove prices to continue falling: RHB Research

I think people overthink about the shorties. Just look at the volume traded everyday vs the short selling, it is not significant at all. The price drops due to retailers n funds exiting as simple as that.

People who shout out Limit Up and people who shout Limit Down could be the same people after all. They are traders who look for volatility in the market

Panic buying?