tsy88 ,

Good Morning,... I will look at HO Hup later today, sorry for the delay..

good night to you all

every day 2-5k is good lor.....

Christine Goh ,

i think you make a lot more lor, good enough for your daily shopping needs mah......

Christine Goh ,

sangat pandai lor......., congra...

Good night to you all, sweet dream.....

I think connie is still watching me here..... don't know why she keeps quiet........

duitKWSPkita ,

Ivory sleeping lah first, after that she will fly high lor.....

Fronkln.... no worry mah.... bullish trend still intact ..... She must have confidence lor.....

duitKWSPkita ,

this is my real pic , in deep meditation lor...... relaxing after a hard stressful day maa......

Christine Goh ,

wow, nice to see you here.......

duitKWSPkita,

no problem, abang, the SPA in Genting good ??

connie,

sudah tidor ???

tjhldg

haha.... All huat huat lor....

duitKWSPkita ,

private equity firm operation? any specific aspect please..

do you mean private company not listed in Bursa or elsewhere ??

tjhldg , welcome..

This is OUR home, not MY home pls......... come here often please....

duitKWSPkita , abang,

I tried the lucky no. 29, on the second attempt, Jackpot lor.... 250 turns into 8k+ lor........ lucky star shinning possible ... I cabut after this ..... hihihiii

AyamTua ,

ok, i do it tomorrow.........

let us All huat huat mah.......

duitKWSPkita ,

PMBTECH is a wild Goreng and controlled ctr with only a free float of 15 millions shares.... I don't gamble with this ctr lor.... abang... I better go to casinos rather playing this ctr....

Abang , I won SGD8K+ just now in the casino with less than 10 min lor.... haha

AyamTua ,

I will look at them later..... wow, you belum tidor kah ???

duitKWSPkita,

abang, you belum tidor kah ???

duitkwspkita , Abang, on PMB Tech,

FA, Its EPS growth seems to be decreasing over the last 3 Financial years, 2013 (9.7), 2012(13.0), 2011(20.0), 2010(9.2), For 2014, I estimate the EPS is near 8.0 (last 2 QTR her EPS is 4.00 accumulative) , Its accumulative profits is 84m vs total share's holder fund near 40m. Her PE is now at 20 (share P is 1.800, EPS est to be RM0.09). Her NTA is near 1.500, WITH A CURRENT DEBT NEAR 2.500 per share), Total outstanding share is 77m, with a extremely LOW free float volume near 15m.
As such, with her Low/No growth in EPS, unfavorable PE and relative high debt ratio, PMB Tech is not my Long/Short Term investment counter.

TA, PMPTech has a drastic rise from 0.85 on 14,July, 2014 , to 1.80 on last Friday., In view of her relative Low free float volume only near 15 millions, with a total outstanding share of 77 million, it can be easily subjected to illogical Buy/sell actions. No special comment on its TA now, Those who are in this counter must be aware of this type of drastic price movements. I personally don't trade this ctr at all.....

Happy trading

duitkwspkita , Abang, on PMetal,

FA, Pmetal has a erratic growth over the last 5 year , just looking at the EPS, 2014 (MY Estimate is 30.0), 2013(2.84),2012(40.0), 2011(20.0), 2010 (21.0). Its PE is now near 20 (share P =6.00, EPS near 30 est).. NTA is near 2.350 , with high liability near 6.900/share).. Total long term Liability stands at 1290m vs total share holder's fund at 1250m....
as such, with erratic Growth and high liability , with the present PE , Pmetal is NOT my Long / Short term Investment Darling.

TA, it has enjoyed a drastic rise from 2.250 on 1 Apr, 2014 to 6.000 on last Friday. My opinion is that PMETAL may NOW commence her downward Distribution phase, with clear bearish divergence on RSI/CCI/STO/...., short term support is near 5.300, (23.6% of FIBO retracement, H=6.00, l=2.250) , cut loss near 4.750.
Happy Trading

duitkwspkita , Abang, on Lbalum ,

FA.. Lbalum has a healthy balance sheet, with her last 3 year EPS' growth with more than 20% annually,(3.5-6.8-9.0) she is qualified as my Long term Investment Counter.She has an accumulated profits of 136m vs the share holder's fund of 124m. (excluding the upcoming June,2014 QTR report).
Its PE is now close to 9.5 (price 0.850, EPS =0.09), NTA is now near 1,10 (estimate basing on the upcoming second Qtr of EPS 0.025). Its shares free float is near 700m.

TA, on last Friday, there was a long bullish candle lift , closing at 0.870 , breaching both the short and longer Trend lines as shown. This sudden surge with volume on last Friday is similar to the lift on 17, Apr, 2014 , probably motivated by the release of good Qtrly report. The Resistance now turns to support is near 0.770,, cut loss is at 0.7200. We need to observe whether both vol and price can be sustained next week, looking for our next TP near 1.000.

Happy trading

duitkwspkita , Abang, this is my write up on Aluminum Trading/Futures

Aluminium jumps to 16-month high amid falling inventories

The price of aluminium has reached its highest level for 16 months as falling inventories, smelter closures and a strong demand outlook continue to attract buyers.

Aluminium, the second most widely used metal after steel, has been in the doldrums since the financial crisis as the market struggled to digest rising supply and towering stocks.

But since slumping to a four-and-a-half-year low of $1,675 a tonne in February, the price has rallied sharply, helped by production cuts and an erosion of aluminium inventories at London Metal Exchange warehouses.
Aluminium for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 1 per cent LAST weeek to $1,990 a tonne, extending gains since the February low to more than 19 per cent.
The last time the metal traded above $2,000 was in March 2013.

At the same time, demand has remained strong. Citi sees demand growth of 6 per cent a year between now and the end of the decade, driven by the increased use of aluminium in car production.

i expect the US auto sector alone to add an additional 400,000 tonnes of consumption in 2014
Sentiment has also been helped by a decline in inventories. Earlier this week, LME stocks dropped below 5m tonnes for the first time since September 2012.

On top of the LME stocks, there is thought to be a further 5m tonnes of inventories in non-LME warehouses.

In addition, analysts say there will be no more smelter closures outside China if the all-in aluminium price – the LME price plus a physical premium – stays where it is.

Rather than seeing more production cuts through the remainder of 2014, i now expect primary aluminium production to grow more strongly than previously expected, on Chinese restarts and higher Middle East output,

David Wilson, analyst at Citi, said the only buying of aluminium in the past couple of weeks had come from managed futures accounts.

On China, Credit Suisse reckoned one-third of China’s idled aluminium smelting capacity was poised to come back on line.

Traders also believe there is a significant surplus of metal in China, some of which is leaving the country in the form of semi-finished products.


my significant Neutral to overweight in copper and aluminium results from the some positive news flowing from China, whether it concerns the economy, the housing market or the financial sector. Prices are likely to pick up until more positive news flow abates and there is a change in the demand dynamic in China.

The continued U.S. dollar appreciation? How is/will this affect commodities ?

Over the past couple of months, people have been concerned about a strong U.S. dollar, which generally means weak commodity prices. But i believe this is a fallacy. North America is now virtually energy independent since oil production is increasing and demand is also flat. Consequently far fewer dollars than was the case are flowing out of the U.S. to pay for energy imports. This situation last occurred in the early 1970s and you thus need databases that run back for 40 or 50 years to have an informed opinion on likely developments going forward. i do like to look at very, very long-term trends and identify events that are significant and change commodity markets on a global basis. i believe the shale energy revolution in North America is one of those events.

At the same time as the flow of dollars out of the U.S. is slackening, there is massive demand for dollars to fund the aforementioned investment in the U.S. energy and manufacturing sectors. There is thus strong support for the dollar. However, i do not believe that this means weaker commodity prices because improving global growth, driven by the developed world with the emerging economies benefiting later, will also support commodities such as Copper and Aluminum.

Foot Notes:
However, my friends, The bullish outlook for AlUMINUM( 2100-2200/MT by end of 2014) does NOT mean POSITIVES for All Bursa stock ctrs, like PMetal , PMBTECH ....etc etc, IN ACTUAL FACT THE HIGHER price of Aluminum will result in higher MATERIAL import prices which will aggravate their earning prospectS near terms.

Happy Trading

connie ,

hai, still reading Romantic Love story book kah ????.......

Chat with you later, now I am going for my dinner/drink/casinos/SPA......

Wish you all the best .....

CityTrader

Hot.T

YOU are welcome, nice to see both of you here,..

Happy trading

noisyboy

winwinborn

Thanks for your kind words.... sharing is my hobby, let's us huat huat together lor........

Bye and happy trading

duitKWSPkita , Wow, Abang,

Aiyooooo, just come back to my hotel room from the Seminar.
I am very surprised that you want to trade Aluminium and its related companies...... yeap. I am also involved in Alu commodity trading too.

ok, Trading on Alu can be in the form of forward contracts (1m, 3m, 6m, 12 months...)spot trades,, , or in ETF (paper trades), will explain more later.....etc etc..

I am going now for dinner/drink and then go to the Golden Sands Casinos to try my luck on the Roulette with strictly SGD1000 capital,, I may hv 4-5 bets with $200 each, win or lose, will get back to my room thereafter..... haha , as I am not a Pro mah... , or later may go to the VIP SPA attached .......lor....

Will post my write up on Alu TONIGHT lah, ,

see you later abang, pls do send my regards to my dear Connie too, good bye..............

CONNIE, sayang ku,
Sorry, just now I was busy on my EU and US futures trading lor..... The Ukraine crisis again is bringing down the entire world markets,... my trades shorting bears the Max gains lor, DAX crashed lah, same as DJ and S&P 500.
I hv closed now all trades , being dead tired now , as tomorrow I hv another crazy day .
Connie, I am touched by you, really, at this hours looking for me..... , one more thing, dear, i want to change my pic as ladies are disturbing me .... ... suggest one "logo" for me pls,

Sweet dream, sayang....... and I am sure you will appear in my dream tonight lor...... good night,,,

What's Bull market?? Any Correction near term ???? What's PE ???

Everybody knows that the current bull market has been one for the ages. Everybody who has been long stocks for the last few years has likely enjoyed the ride. Everybody knows that the current bull market is getting old. And yet, everybody also knows that this market “BURSA” has some "issues."

In response, just about everybody in the game - including yours truly - has penned a piece or three encouraging investors to exhibit some caution toward the stock market. After the two brutal bear markets that ensued once the "good times" in the markets ended in 2000 and 2008, investors can't be blamed for being a little squeamish right about now.

Oh, and as you are no doubt aware, there have been some bad times - no, make that some very, very bad times as well. Therefore, just about everybody in the game these days is worried about what happens when this bull runs out of room to run.

The Big Concern - Valuations
one of the most popular concerns about the stock market is the topic of valuation. In short, a great many folks contend that stocks are currently overvalued and some suggest that this market is wildly overvalued.

The problem is there are about a zillion ways to measure stock market valuation. Therefore, like art, the judgement of whether or not stocks are "expensive" or "cheap" usually lies in the eyes of the beholder.


The Price-To-Earnings Ratio: The Granddaddy of Valuation Indicators

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E) is by far, the most well-known and popular market valuation indicator. History shows that when investors start to pay more and more for that of earnings, the market quickly becomes extended. And surely as night follows day, bear markets tend to ensue when valuations become excessive.

It would be logical then for an investor to pare back their exposure to market risk when valuations are high and to put money to work in the market when valuations are low. (All those, uttering the word, "duh" right about now, raise your hands!)

But here's the rub. Over- and undervaluation are moving targets. Oh, and overvalued in one environment is merely neutral in another. Thus, unless valuations are out-and-out ridiculous (think 1999), investing money based on valuations can be a fool's game.

However, attempting to glean where we are in terms of valuations within a given cycle can certainly be helpful in terms of managing risk/reward.

The Current Numbers

Another challenge in this arena is there are a plethora of ways to look at earnings and P/E ratios. Forward-looking, Trailing, GAAP earnings, Operating earnings, Median, and "normalized" to name a few. But let's start with the basics.

Currently, the one-year forward P/E ratio stands at 15.3 for BURSA, which, based on historical measures puts the market in the neutral zone in terms of valuation. And for perspective purposes, the current forward P/E is about the same as where it stood in 2007

Next up is the trailing one-year P/E ratio. And in this instance we're looking at operating earnings.

The problem with "operating earnings," of course, is that in this day and age, these numbers are basically whatever a company would like them to be. Therefore, it is a good idea to look at GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings, as there is a lot less fudging (oops, I mean "financial engineering") going on.

So, from a base-level P/E view since 2000, valuations would have to be considered neutral on balance.

Next time we will look at some more variations on the Price-to-Earnings ratio. But so far at least, there is no reason to be yelling fire.

AyamTua,

ok, huat on Monday for ALL.....

Good Night and sweet dream....... bye......

rob_z3_man,

pls don't call me master or boss lah... ,, yong will do lor.....

we all share and huat together mah.......

rob_z3_man ,

ok, i will do it tomorrow,...

happy trading

Ayam Tua, GSB,

Its last 5 years operating net profits are rather flat,
2014(closed Mar 2014)-1.8m,@, 2013 +0.5m,@, 2012 +3.8m,@, 2011 +1.6m,@, 2010 -0.9m.@,.. its Ave EPS is near 0.80 cents.over the last five year.
if basing on share price now at 0.13000, its PE is 16., Her NTA is near 0.110. Its growth is almost flat , excessively low........

Its total share holder fund now stands at 40 millions, with Accumulated profits near -1.9m. Debt is 9m. Its Free float is low near 600 millions shares.

However, basing on her various new projects launched in Johore, (the G-Resisdence), and the possible upcoming revaluation on her land assets over 30 millions as claimed...........

So now This Ctr IS A TARGET FOR THE GORENG Teams lor....

I therefore recommend that GSB is good as a "Goreng" Ctr for Intraday or Contra When the Volume is up moving like today.... GSB is not for Longer term investment near term....

Abang , Happy trading......

AyamTua ,

BROTHER, GSB ... OK..... will do it soon...

Ayam Tua,

you look at Ideal, ACE ctr, from 0.130 (Feb, 2014)to 0.700 now, , but its NTA=0.05, PE=28 ??? Ada Logic kah,,,/????

AyamTua ,

FA for GSB is not very impressive .... I will put up a write up on it soon. Its financial data is improving,... the upcoming second qtr report may lead to better clues lar....... , but her potential earning looks positive for their newly launched projects in Johor....

more research on GSB is on the ways....

AyamTua,

EXCELLENT, GSB, already hantam kuat kuat since Monday lor.... see my earlier stock picks lor..... TP ==0.1500, follows by 0.20000

AyamTua ,

ok, I will post here from next Monday 8:30 a,m Our stock picks and prediction everyday from Monday to Friday,,,,,......

But pls suggest yours too lor..... This is OUR home mah.......

Huat together , donate and be happy together..... Team work mah...

Happy trading

AyamTua ,

you are wanted.......

tsy88 , There are 3 phases during up trend,

Accumulation, participation, Excess....

http://gyazo.com/59a5eda62fb63ea4c3f2e9873048de75

During this excess phase, a lot of attention should be placed on signs of weakness in the trend, such as strengthening downward moves. Also, if the upward moves start to show weakness, it could be another sign that the trend may be near the start of a primary downtrend.

Then the Distribution phase during downturn......

Happy trading

AyamTua

Abang, you are wanted here lor......

Aiyooooo, ok, I will try to find and predict lah like your EAH.... GSB..... Frontkln.....

You must come to this===OUR home to predict TOGETHER ,and huat lah and then DONATE LOR TOGETHER LAH................

tsy88 ,

I understand. Thanks for your kind words,

Happy trading

TSY88, Ideal,

http://gyazo.com/355dc5d2e496931ada3cf4d8334e0746 simplified chart

Technically, Ideal may have hit her Top near 0.7000, if you look at the chart where the Peak D is located., as we note that the divergence on both RSI and STO are now clearly displaced. Stop loss is at the 23.6% Fibo at 0.560 (0%=0.135 , 100% = 0.7000), You must be cautious as her down trend may commence sooner. I think that her Excess phase has almost reached. (I simplify the chart so that All readers can copy and implement them themselves later)

Ideal FA, as her NTA is 0.05, PE is near 28 (eps=0.025, price =0.700).

tsy88 , SYF
http://gyazo.com/bbfffa1ac1d1c8e32a337e082bebf712 Simplified chart

SYF has an failed attempt to breakout above 1.3000. The immediate support is near 1.150, and cut loss near 1.100 , which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement (100% = 1.280, 0% is near 0.550. ) As the free float is low near 650 millions , it can be a good intraday trading target.
Technical indicators are positive , Its slight bullishness still intact. SYF is now in the Excess phase, which may be close to 1,3000 or going to hit its new peak near term , thereafter, its downturn may commence

I cannot predict its TP near term as I can't derive from the chart , its Fundamentals are still required further observation and significant improvement SINCE its present PE is near 20 (basing on EPS=0.06, AT 1.250), NTA=0.600, with erratic growth over the last 3 years.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@,
Ho hup and Ideal will be done tomorrow.

Happy trading

connie,

wow, you do know my where about lor..... i am chained lor...... anyway, good bye and all the best coming to you, dear........

Best wishes to you all

connie is a romantic lady mah.........

I am signing off now, See you dear next week..... will miss you...

Wishing you all the best and all huat huat lah............ good bye

Hang seng futures flying up, Shanghai up too,,,,,

connie,

EU futures/stocks are green green,,,, Now Bursa getting better.......

connie ,

am a bit sad lor......... you hv a best seph