Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:02 | Report Abuse

Hi yong888,

good that you are fully discharged and charged with market energy now.

Yes yes yes.... I am everyone's silent reader especially like a hantu gadis following you... Faster tell me u r frightened now.

Actually I m silent reader for most of the experts here. I am quite new in this market so must make sure I learn new things everyday.

maha guru. when free may I invite you to my kindergarten analysis at http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/901291335.jsp?fp=10

I know it is very lousy work. I really hope to get your comment so I can improve myself.

Thanks in advance abang yong888 for ur kind feedback.

Posted by motomoto > 2014-09-03 22:04 | Report Abuse

Dear sifus... pls kindly advise on censof.

Proposed warrants issue? is there any effect?

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 22:05 | Report Abuse

My Next posting will be :-

"The Economic outlook of EU in next 3 years".............

Happy trading and good night to you all.........., bye bye

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:07 | Report Abuse

sorry abang yong888,

very sorry to tell that I got nothing good..... nothing I can share with you..... I m still in learning stage. Jz like a sponge now....

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 22:11 | Report Abuse

abang yong888,

May I add some points? Please correct me if I m wrong since drilling & exploration and lifting costs are "trade secret" in the commodities world. Do you think is it possible for ExxonMobil they "purposely" declare "higher than actual" total cost even though their actual cost is much lower.

Rationale is they have pretty much "sweeter" crude so they will strategies to declare higher cost to create "barganing power of supplier" in the market.


Ohhhh no... I might be too childish to think overly. Thanks for your kind clarification.

Happy trading!

Posted by chiongster1234 > 2014-09-03 22:18 | Report Abuse

Sini oil n gas post a? Well done Yong, wish you recover well and take a good rest.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:04 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita ,

adik, i hv just post my comment on Boilermech in your thread.

Adik Duit, it is possible for Exxon Mobile to declare inflated figures for some specific purpose...... but if you look at the other 3 IOC members,the average costing is still quite near 40 dollars/barrel, it shall serve as a guideline/ baseline......

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:05 | Report Abuse

chiongster1234,

thank you

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:07 | Report Abuse

motomoto ,

will reply your post tomorrow,

thank you

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-03 23:09 | Report Abuse

thanks abang yong888,

rest well.

see u in battle field tomorrow.

good night!

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-03 23:12 | Report Abuse

adik Duit, good night....... bye

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 00:36 | Report Abuse

my top pick for today daytrading (Thursday):-

Glotec
Frontkn
Pmcorp
Wintoni
DGB
Tenaga & Tenaga-C7
Mahsing & Mahsing-WA
SUMATEC-WB (Shorting),

will hv updates on them while trading IS in progress........

happy trading to you all

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 00:51 | Report Abuse

For my reader who wants to know some basic Elliott wave (EW), PLS GO TO THE LINKS BELOW :---

http://proelliottwave.com/free-elliott-wave-resources/elliott-wave-principle-basics/

http://www.slideshare.net/shaned30/traders-worldmagazine-elliottwaveunveiledwwwdl4allcom?related=1

more links will be shown later.....

happy trading, good night .... bye bye,...

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-04 17:08 | Report Abuse

Respected expert insider,

Could you please guide me this?

Trillion thanks abang yong888.



Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 31, 2014 11:02 AM | Report Abuse X
Dear Respected aBang yong888,

Good day to you. May I consult you something? I believe in your superman networking could give me a help.

I would like to learn more about "Blackout Periods" aka "Closed Period" stated ai Bursa Main Market LR Chapter 14 if not mistaken.

Referring to the Chapter 14. Part B- Definitions under the Context at (b) (1) and (2) the "closed period" means a period commencing 30 calendar days before the targeted date of announcement up to the date o fthe announcment of the following to the Excahnge-

(b)(1) - in relation to a listed issuer, its quarterly results; or
(b)(2) - in relation to a listed issuer which is a collective investment scheme, the fund's quarterly results or annual reports;

---------------------------------------------------------------------
AFter I vet through the terminology and definition of "dealing" I could not find the clear statement/clause for "dealing in announcemnt of restructuring". Please read my question as below:

1) Is the upliftment PN17 falls under Chapter 14, "If NOT" then the substancial shareholder probably can manipulate to BRING UP(pre-announcement) or BRING DOWN sharply(few days before PN17 approval information in order to vacumm back those shares in lowest price).

2) In your view, do you think our nation's trading regulation ie Chapter 14 Dealings in listed securities need to be reviewed? I believe you are fully aware of recent complanints to Bursa Malaysia about the abusement of Closed Period trading as many listed company top management lift up the price(they knew the good result will be announced) and perform "SELL ON NEWS".......Again, many investors kena trapped!



Million thanks to you in advance for your valuable times for explanation. I wish to learn more and more from you.

Best Regards,
newbie duit

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:14 | Report Abuse

duitKWSPkita ,

adik , just read your above posting......

1) The announcement of pn17 status is not covered in chapter 14 of the Bursa's act.Yeap, you are spot on, that is what you saw recently on Ho Hup and Sumatec , All the directors are FAT CATS now.

.... let's look at the criteria for uplifting PN17 status,...

5.2 If a PN17 Company undertakes a regularization plan which will not result in a significant change in the business direction or policy of the PN17 Company, it must –
(a) submit to the Exchange the plan and obtain the Exchange’s approval to implement the plan within 12 months from the date of the First Announcement;
(b) complete the implementation of the plan within 6 months from the date the plan is approved by the Exchange. However, for cases which involve court proceedings, a PN17 Company has up to 12 months from the date the plan is approved by the Exchange, to complete the implementation of the plan; and
(c) record a net profit in 2 consecutive quarterly results immediately after the completion of the implementation of the plan. In this regard, the PN17 Company must ensure that the relevant quarterly results are subjected to a limited review by an external auditor before they are announced to the Exchange.

Note: it is extremely easy to "make" a "good" financial report , even achieving a EPS 0f RM 0.002 is good enough...( for Sumatec, her average EPS for her latest 2 qtrly report is RM0.0015) .

The problem is on the Enforcement , as the classifications on "sensitive information" rule as highlighted in Chapter 14 is sufficient.



2) On the so called dealings in Closed period / Off market deals are so rampant recently, an effective enforcement is the only solution to clean up our present mess... Our Bursa regulation rules on Chapter 14, are almost the copy cat of London stock exchange , with some modifications to suit Malaysia ........

so we need neutral / impartial and hard working Bursa officers to do a good job.......

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:49 | Report Abuse

Global economic outlook......(part 1 on USA)

Historically, August tends to be a quiet month characterized by lackluster trading and/or an overall decline in prices, sometimes precipitously in both areas. There is one exception however, depending on the macroeconomic health of the US economy.

In financial trading, August can either strengthen the trend preceding it, especially in the case of cyclical bull markets, or August can paint a bleak picture of what's to come. Within global macro circles, market behavior during the eight month of the year is examined relative to index fund inflows. While it's understandable for volume to drop-off when most of the financial industry vacations in August because the school year is about to commence,

With the Bears Away the Bulls Can Play: Identifying a Cyclical Bull Market

If the overall economy is not only healthy, but firmly in the midst of recovering from the depths of a deep recession, the data should show a continued inflow of new money in index funds. Present indicators suggest the economy is firing on all cylinders. Coupled with a lack of regulatory intervention (i.e. tightening monetary and/or fiscal policies), the economy will continue to show improvements both in employment and in rising incomes. The net effect is continued capital flows into index funds, and as recent data shows, August saw significant inflows. As global macro practitioners, this little nugget of knowledge is crucial. The general health of the stock market, even as far back as the Dow Theory, depends on a healthy economy that's creating jobs and raising incomes. If a bull market is genuinely cyclical, the correlation between vacationing traders in August and declining stock prices would be severed. It's been a while since this little qualifier has materialized, but recently released numbers for August inflows presents bulls with a strong case for a cyclical bull market in stocks. Keep in mind however that "cyclical" is a long-term view while traders are more often concerned with the short term picture.

We certainly did see a substantial drop in overall volume for the month of August. Combined with strong fund inflows into index funds, and as you'll read below, massive Chinese household buying of US Treasuries, stocks may have actually experienced an exaggerated rally due to a lack of short selling, a practice most often employed by Wall Street Hedge Funds and generally taken for granted by Main Street as either "un-American" or "anti-capitalistic behavior". Although an upward push in August is good news for the bulls, it should raise alarms in the short term, especially with volatility at extreme lows. A potential counter-move or correction going into October would be healthy, though the degree of any correction depends on the move preceding it. In this particular case, a decline could be so sharp that we may witness another "flash crash", a neo-contemporary phenomenon of market behavior almost guaranteed to re-occur as long as the same micro-structure market regime remains firmly in place. Behavioral finance played an important role in the October crashes of past. It seems to be an accepted truism that markets will fall, often precipitously, in the month of October. This assumption manifests itself into reality compliments of the herd and behavioral economics.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-04 23:50 | Report Abuse

The Proof is in the Pudding
Proof the economy is firing on all cylinders and the Fed is not rushing to tap the brakes, the dollar jumped to its highest level this year against the yen on Tuesday following strong U.S. economic data coupled with lackluster volume. Concurrently, the yield on 10 year Treasury's rose following the same news.


Markets are disregarding any geo-political risks stemming from Russia and her standoff with Ukraine, as well as beheadings in the Middle East by insane religious fanatics. The real picture was influenced by concerns demand from Europe and China is declining as their economies are growing more vulnerable to a recession. However, the general trend in crude remains sideways prices at these levels can be more effective at taking money out of the system because the effect is almost immediate whereas adjusting the short-end of the curve takes one or two quarters to produce results. This may be why the Fed remains sidelined and isn't worried enough to take any action yet. Should a catalyst push crude towards $150 or higher, it would actually threaten the recovery. In this writer's opinion, the Fed is staying on the sidelines because geo-political tensions are rising in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe. Event with demand from Europe and China declining, as we approach the winter months, refinery output will shift from petroleum to heating oil.
There's also the strengthening US dollar, which could keep a lid on crude prices to offset any geo-political premium. In other words, we may see order through chaos.
Geo-Politics, Declining Demand in China and Europe, Fund Flow Data

In early July, the yield on ten-year US Treasury's was around 2.55%. Yields have fallen further, to around 2.40% at the time of writing, continuing a trend in place since the start of the year, and one which is expected to continue through year-end. US Treasuries are likely benefiting from safe-haven demand. Rising geo-political tensions make US Treasuries an attractive alternative to bunds. Ten-year bunds are currently yielding well under 1%, resulting in record spreads so wide traders are driving trucks through while they can. However, the idea that investors are entering a "risk off" mode would be at odds with the pricing of most other asset classes coupled with measures of implied volatility in particular.
The Variant View
An alternative explanation focuses on other types of flows. It turns out that the reduction in FOMC purchases has not been the only cooler talk. Faced with a slowdown in economic growth, the Chinese have been pushing the renminbi lower during the first half of the year. This has added to foreign demand for US Treasuries if anything. Net purchases of US Treasuries by Chinese residents have been stepped up dramatically in 2014, currently running close to $30 billion per month. Moreover, the US federal government deficit has narrowed dramatically over the past few years thus the net supply of US Treasuries are significantly less now than they once were.
Net Net of it All
The reduction in 10 year US Treasury yields over the past two months has been a surprise, but if employment and inflation continue to firm, then in our judgment 10 year US Treasury yields are more likely to rise than to fall. Until the Fed is well into a tightening cycle, expect stocks to continue what we believe can be defined as a cyclical bull market.

.....HAPPY TRADING

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-05 09:48 | Report Abuse

today picks

Frontkn,
Dnex,
DGB

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 06:08 | Report Abuse

Now, the US bull's market has crossed 2000 days' mark, What is next ???? can the S&P 500 BE FURTHER BULLED UP TO 3000 as forecast by Stanley Morgan.?????.....

My next posting is on the way............ happy trading...

bye bye ........... Happy Moon cake festival and do enjoy this DAY WITH YOUR LOVED ONE............

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 19:43 | Report Abuse

HAPPY Moon cake Festival to ALL in i3-forum........

....cheers and be happy always....

Wishing you all the best...... bye bye

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-06 21:07 | Report Abuse

Is the major correction in US stock market getting NEARER ?????

The QE #3 is expected to end in October this year. What will be the immediate impact on Stock markets ????

Again the stock markets are forever cyclical, cyclical bulls are always followed by cyclical bears. The average size and duration of a cyclical bull within a sideways-grinding secular bear like we've seen in the stock markets since 2000 is a doubling in 35 months. Today's bull has nearly tripled, up 196.1%, in 66 months! It is far too big and far too old, meaning a selloff's highest-probability outcome is the next cyclical bear.

Cyclical bears tend to cut stock prices in half over a couple years or so, they are dangerous beasts not to be trifled with. And once QE3 is done, there is no more Fed backstop in place to motivate traders to instantly buy every minor dip. the Fed has no room to cut interest rates to arrest a stock-market swoon. And again QE4 is very unlikely in this political environment.

Rising stock markets make Americans feel better about everything, so we are more likely to vote for incumbents for more of the same. But we feel worse when stock markets are weaker, making us more prone to kick out the bums in hopes for change.


The major corrections when QE1 and QE2 ended actually began a little earlier in anticipation, and it is reasonable to expect stock traders to start selling ahead of QE3's rapidly-approaching end too. And since the Fed won't risk the political wrath of the Republicans who will likely soon control the full Congress again, it isn't going to launch a QE4 soon. So any stock selloff won't have any hope of a Fed rescue!

Thus the end of QE3 is exceedingly ominous for these lofty stock markets. A major SPX selloff, whether it is merely a 20% correction or a new cyclical bear, will drive devastating losses in everything from the high-flying momentum stocks to the conservative SPX-tracking ETFs like SPY . And it has been so long since we've seen any material selloffs that the resulting hit to complacent and euphoric sentiment will be massive.

How can you protect yourself in this coming swoon? Buy gold. The entire precious-metals sector was abandoned and left for dead during the Fed's QE3-driven SPX levitation. But alternative investments will return to vogue in a big way once normal stock-market behavior including selloffs resumes. The gains coming in the beaten-down precious-metals sector will be vast as flight capital floods in looking for safe havens.

The big risk of serious inflation igniting thanks to QE's huge monetizations remains too, which will act like rocket fuel for gold. Even when QE3's new buying ends soon, the Fed will still have $3.5t of bonds stuck on its balance sheet! That means $3.5t of new money injected into the economy that could start bidding on goods and services and driving up prices any time until the Fed can unwind its QE bonds bought.

The bottom line is the Fed's third quantitative-easing campaign is due to end in late October. QE3 has massively boosted the stock markets, driving their extraordinary levitation of the past year-and-a-half or so along with the Fed's jawboning. Once QE3 ends, so does the Fed's implied backstop of stocks. Any selloff can't be met with rate cuts , and a new QE4 is extremely risky politically for the Fed.

So the overdue stock-market selling pressure is likely to cascade with the Fed no longer available to arrest it. Major stock-market corrections emerged as both QE1 and QE2 ended, and the stock markets are far more extreme today as QE3 winds down. And once again this end-of-QE selling is likely to start in anticipation of the actual event, an ominous omen for stocks that mirrored QE3's Fed balance-sheet growth.

Watch out the declining path for the major US stock market correction NEAR TERMS........

Happy trading

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-06 22:42 | Report Abuse

Abang yong888,
great great forecast!
so amazing!
thanks abang Yong for great sharing always.

salute,
duit

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-09 06:37 | Report Abuse

Can we start buying Gold and Silver Now ???????

The way that gold moves inversely to the strength of the USD seems to be putting undue pressure on the metal, as we feel like regardless of the dollar's strength, it's a losing battle the paper currency is fighting in the long run

We also watched pricing of the commodity deflate after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting showed that they were potentially thinking about raising rates sooner. Again, we believe just the opposite should have occurred, and gold should have walked up on these sentiments as equities are likely to be negatively affected from a rate hike.

In addition, we also like silver here. Like aluminum, silver has significant avenues for usage outside of simply being a commodity that people hold. Silver is also being pressured downward towards its lows of the year.

With the geopolitical tensions overseas, we still think gold is a prim and proper hedge for investors. Traditionally, on a global scale, gold has had the most success in holding its value during times of turmoil throughout the world.


The strength of the dollar continues to rise.
We believe the strength in the dollar is to be based on reasonable good fundamentals,and one of them is also due to ECB's asset purchasing plan.

We find the irony of the situation quite funny, actually. Due to the ECB's stimulus, people should be reminded that gold is a great hedge against central banks creating too much paper money. Instead, just the opposite is happening in the U.S., people are moving away from gold. We believe this to be a shortsighted view and continue to believe that gold is an opportunity on the ECB created "fake dollar strength."

There is also the extremely important argument of whether or not banks are moving away from the USD as a reserve currency and buying gold instead .

With gold at its support near $1,275, we are considering a position in the commodity as a hedge for the next couple of years. But then Gold may head into the 1100 region in next 1-2 months. So I will start buying God SLOWLY from now on…….. I will Long Gold / Silver aggressively when Gold is in the 1100 -1000 channel.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-09 06:49 | Report Abuse

Todate my picks for DAY TRADING :-

Frontkn
Mahsing
DGB
Glutec
AWC
GLANFLO
DIGISTA
INSAS
TENAGA

Happy trading................

Posted by chiongster1234 > 2014-09-09 06:52 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy, gold gold gold.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-09 12:48 | Report Abuse

US Dollar is now UNDISPUTED King of Forex..........

Last night, RISING SURGE in the strength of Dollar was downright scary. The USD was easily the best performer on the day while the pound languished on referendum fears. The BOJ minutes and some second tier releases are due next.
the fundamentals are so divergent between the US and its major rivals that unless the economic story changes, any USD selling will be temporary.” Today we learned just how much the market is falling in love with dollars.

Asset managers and hedgers who sat on the sidelines during last week's ECB drama and non-farm payrolls jumped into the fray. What started as started as selling in cable turned into selling everything against the dollar.

The late-day move started in USD/JPY as it broke last Thursday's high of 105.71 and then quickly broke through 106.00. Dollar buying then spread to commodity currencies and eventually to EUR/USD as it fell 50 pips to 1.2880 in an hour. The EUR/USD daily RSI eventually fell to the lowest since the depths of the 2008 crisis. In the end, nothing was spared the wrath of King Dollar.

Overall economic news was light but US consumer credit surged to $26B, easily beating the $17B expected in a sign of better willingness to borrow and lend.

Up next on the schedule are the BOJ minutes from the Aug 8 decision and the tertiary industry index, which is expected to rise 0.2%. At 0130 GMT, Australian housing finance data is due but it's unlikely to move the market.

Happy Trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-10 06:20 | Report Abuse

As what I hv posted , Both US/EU stock/Futures hv commenced their decline.....

Both Gold and Oil are drifting down too........

In fact I am also disposing some of my Bursa "Blue Counters" slowly since last week,...... so that I have more Cash on hands . Meanwhile, am looking for More opportunities to invest/ Short on other weakening Global Markets.............

Happy trading

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-09-10 17:36 | Report Abuse

Sorry for late reply Abang yong888,


--------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------


Make it easy for GLOTEC, I assume you know also tomoro(Thursday) will hit RM0.115 and close at RM0.110.

You may earn 10% from the counter tomorrow. Dunno how to contact you privately. Acknowledge and I shall delete it. Bye. I got no WIFI for most of the times.

Happy trading!



Posted by yong888 > Sep 9, 2014 06:49 AM | Report Abuse

Todate my picks for DAY TRADING :-

Frontkn
Mahsing
DGB
Glutec
AWC
GLANFLO
DIGISTA
INSAS
TENAGA

Happy trading................

Posted by alvinchiam > 2014-09-10 17:39 | Report Abuse

Wahh... every share u want buy...... u kaya la...
Ha ha...

Posted by alvinchiam > 2014-09-10 17:40 | Report Abuse

U buy malton, sure win u know ha ha...

Posted by alvinchiam > 2014-09-10 17:43 | Report Abuse

Business trader, got profit u sell, down u buy back... how ? Must have strategy , u know...?

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-10 23:20 | Report Abuse

Adik Duit,

hi, I am busy on my trading platform on EU and US futures ..... looking good as I hv been Shorting them since last week......... as Global downtrend is a better trading opportunity....... , Oil is weakening as Dollars gained strength, Gold and other commodity may head to further weakness...... ....,
Thanks for your tips on Glotec,....... I will look at it tomorrow..... how are you ?? I may leave for New York for a short business trips cum leisure this Sunday, will miss you and connie ....... ......

Wishing you happy, and do enjoy your life to its fullest,..... and don't worry, as charity work is my life's mission...........

Bye bye, happy trading, adik......

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-10 23:32 | Report Abuse

Adik Duit,

As you do know that Global stock markets may head for major correction, so I hv BEEN UNLOADING some of my "blue counters" to preserve my profits recently,... so that I can divert them to commodity trading such as Gold/Silver near term.......... or just buy into Bond..........

You may consider to do so too...............

Happy trading ........ bye

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-09-12 00:00 | Report Abuse

Abang Yong,

absolutely right. I see the correction soon too. Mine more drastic, I rate KLCI for post correction 1725 pts only. yUP. Have been eyeing GOLD and other commodities but NT from precious types. U are simply so knowledgeable,,,,,pls pls pls do the right thing but not use our gifted intelligence to harm ppls. I m respect and salute you since day one.

not many believe when I mention market correction but so surprised u have the same view too. Thanks that u travel a lot and u hav valuable exposure compared to many.

again, thanks for guiding me always.

happy trading!



Posted by yong888 > Sep 10, 2014 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

Adik Duit,

As you do know that Global stock markets may head for major correction, so I hv BEEN UNLOADING some of my "blue counters" to preserve my profits recently,... so that I can divert them to commodity trading such as Gold/Silver near term.......... or just buy into Bond..........

You may consider to do so too...............

Happy trading ........ bye

Posted by youlee > 2014-09-15 16:32 | Report Abuse

Have a nice day in Central Park, New York!!!!!

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-16 06:04 | Report Abuse

hai, youlee, Good Morning to you

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-16 06:06 | Report Abuse

hi, Duit, A very good day to you,............

Wishing you happy always........

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-16 06:11 | Report Abuse

here in NY, sunny and excellent weather, 20 deg C in the Day and near 16 deg C at night...........

Been busy and having a tight schedule,........ too many things to be accomplished....... time flies and no time for restinhg....... , very fulfilling days here.....

See you all soon, Wishing you all the Best ...

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-16 06:45 | Report Abuse

Global Futures are declining, Oil is weakening.....

Gold and silver are drifting lower But SHALL BE BOTTOMING SOON, they may be a good buying opportunity........

Corrections , corrections are the names of the Games..... be prepared pls.....

Happy trading

Posted by yong888 > 2014-09-16 19:36 | Report Abuse

We could reach the top of this bubble as soon as late-Sept/or Early Oct. The potential gains still available to you are now only about 3% to 5% while the potential downside is approaching 75% or more.

This is not a time to invest blindly. Finding and sticking with a good investment strategy is the only way to go… especially now.

Remember, if it looks like a bubble, walks like a bubble, and quacks like a bubble.......

Happy trading

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-10-10 21:04 | Report Abuse

Dear abang yong888,

so long never hear from you. How are you doing? actively engage with environment?

smart guy should do smart things. great that u pull everything away from the table beginning of August.

I will not keep long for any counter until I see the KLCI touches 1725 pts.
Meanwhile, I will make a come back to "hit and run" for those counters under my watch list.

Wishing you happy n healthy always.

Warmest Regards,
duit

Posted by yong888 > 2014-10-16 07:13 | Report Abuse

Duit dear,

sorry for the late response... as i thought that all have forgotten this thread of mine .
I am doing what I like to do ,,,and finding time to relax , enjoy myself to its fullest ,and embarking on more charity activities nowaday.
I have made more $$$ from Global trading the past two months, far exceeding my normal annual trading profits..... as I have lots of bullets to do more for the weak, under-privileged, abused , orphans., the aged, .....,
As i have said, life is short, I hope I can do more always.

How are you? Hope you are fine and be happy always too... I am touched that you do remember me... I do miss you always..

Happy trading and do enjoy your life...,

I may go to Europe next month for some business ventures( many are for charity )..... I may be out there till Christmas.......

Bye and chat with you more later.....

Posted by newbee > 2014-10-16 19:21 | Report Abuse

Hi yong. I know about u and duit from chrissYconn thread. I am amazed that u n duit already anticipated correction to come way back in sept n these few days the mkt is terrible. If ur vision of 1725 does come through, do u reckon i should cut loss all to preserve money and start fresh when mkt pick up? As i really don't know how low the prices will go.

Thanks n appreciate much ur advise.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-10-20 08:42 | Report Abuse

great morning abang yong888,

May I learn something from you. Mind to update us the latest development of Crude oil price. I do not see any positive news for Growth in Demand as well as slow down in Crude oil production.

Thanks,

Posted by yong888 > 2014-10-23 23:20 | Report Abuse

Duit dear,

sorry for the delayed reply...... on Crude futures

In my last prediction on crude in May 2014, , I said that oil prices were headed lower again. This was back in May 25, with WTI crude at $104.50. I expected a drop of 20% or so, and this was handily exceeded. The reason I expected crude to do badly was due to very long speculative positioning being mated to unfavorable fundamentals including expanded supply and excessive inventories.

I will seek to update on this opinion, namely due to the fact that I've sairecently So here it goes.

Speculative positioning

last prediction showed large speculators and managed money were at an historical record in terms of long speculative positioning.

Fundamentals

Inventories

U.S. inventories continue to be extremely elevated. When looking at a chart, they merely seem to be at the top of the 5-year range, however, it must be noticed that this top at this point in time was established last year - and at the time, the top greatly exceeded the 5-year band!

At these levels, crude inventories are not favorable for higher oil prices.

Production/Supply

Not only has Iraq production not been disrupted by ISIS, but we're getting Libyan production online again. Libya is again close to 1 million bpd after being as low as 0.2 million bpd back in June. This is adding tremendous supply pressure in a very short time



To this, we have to add the continuing expansion of U.S. production due to the shale revolution. Since June, the U.S. added roughly another 0.5 million bpd in crude production.

Again, the supply picture is not favorable for higher crude prices.

Demand

It's hard to pin down demand for crude on a worldwide scale. However, estimates for such demand over the year from the EIA have been going lower and lower. They now speak of an increased 0.7 million bpd demand, which is clearly below the recently added supply.

Crude exports from the U.S.

Together with massively increased shale oil production, there's also a new phenomenon - crude exports from the U.S. are increasing! This is relevant because, together with the ability to import less, it helps in re-establishing the arbitrage with other crudes, such as Brent crude. The increase is clear and unmistakable, as per EIA:

This includes both Canadian oil being re-exported and lightly-refined U.S. crude. This is not so much a factor for lower crude prices, as it is a factor for narrower spreads between Brent and WTI crude.

Posted by yong888 > 2014-10-23 23:22 | Report Abuse

Final considerations

There are just two factors on the horizon which could lead to higher oil prices. One is Saudi Arabia aggressively curtailing production. The other would be reduced drilling/exploration, but it would take much more time.

Reduced drilling takes a lot of time to show its effects so cannot be relied upon to produce higher oil prices in the short term unless the reduced drilling is already well underway. The effects from reduced drilling will be faster than in the past in a sense, though. This has to do with the fact that shale oil wells decline much faster than conventional wells, so when reduced drilling takes place, it will have an impact on production faster than in the past. Anyway, it's too early to be betting on that.

Conclusion

At this point, most of the short-term fundamentals do not point towards higher oil prices. It cannot be discounted that oil might remain at the present prices or head lower still but expecting near-term higher oil prices is not one of them.

On chart with EW, a clear bottom may be near 70 by Christmas , and we do not foresee an aggressive lift/ reversal on crude near term.

Posted by connie > 2014-10-26 16:00 | Report Abuse

yong ... as always, thanks for sharing your view with us :) may i ask ya something ??? do u write articles for any publication ??? tot i read your posting somewhere ... hmmm maybe it's just deja vu !

Posted by yong888 > 2014-11-12 09:01 | Report Abuse

I do see huge foreign capital inflows into US. Europe will implode one way or another and Japan will have to taste its own bitter reality as a result of Abenomics and prior mismanagement.
The question does remain, where will the money go, US debt or shares. US economy is scheduled for a nasty turn a year from now. This however will be a major DEFLATIONARY factor. All the commodities have already been plunging as they are THE resources used in economy, it's only matter of time before officially the label "recession" will have to be placed on the economic situation.
Historically, rising interest rates produce a rising market. Doing so will only stimulate foreign money even more to take advantage of parking in the US dollar. QE was suicidal from day one but the nasty truth is that while they decided to inject morphine, they never actually took enough to overcome the mess they created in the first place.
QE needed to not exist at all or, since it WAS introduced, it needed to be 2-3 fold to bounce back the system. In the end, the worst of all possibilities was elected. This will be a tussle, no doubt, but US municipalities are moving towards the edge of insolvency and the Feds may not be able to keep the lid on the situation when US Treasuries are the last dirty shirt in the global hamper.
Rates will rise but I don't think the Feb will be as insane as to announce a sudden uptick. In the end, the capital may opt for decent dividends and rising valuation of shares than to take chances in the sketchy bond markets. It's all about how long will the global eyes have faith in US Fed debt as that stand on nothing more than the momentum of PAST (and I mean decades and decades long) reliability of the US government and economy, both of which are currently failing.
Alas, the worst is still ahead and end of 2015 will mark the beginning of unraveling.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2014-12-09 15:46 | Report Abuse

Dear newbee,

KLCI almost 1725 sooner. It's time for you to pick up some penny stocks.

Posted by newbee > Oct 16, 2014 07:21 PM | Report Abuse

Hi yong. I know about u and duit from chrissYconn thread. I am amazed that u n duit already anticipated correction to come way back in sept n these few days the mkt is terrible. If ur vision of 1725 does come through, do u reckon i should cut loss all to preserve money and start fresh when mkt pick up? As i really don't know how low the prices will go.

Thanks n appreciate much ur advise.

Posted by edlishah79 > 2016-01-19 20:21 | Report Abuse

Hai all and assalamualaikum,anybody here can guide me how to seriously be a intraday trader.Duit or Yong anybody