Duit dear,

I hv just posted a report on Crude futures in my thread, hope you will read it. http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600057660.jsp


Duit
connie

I hv now great relief as my brainy lady has gone back to US tonight.... haha, my persuasing magical skill looks good lor.........

I am blessed by God .........
Happy trading

Final considerations

There are just two factors on the horizon which could lead to higher oil prices. One is Saudi Arabia aggressively curtailing production. The other would be reduced drilling/exploration, but it would take much more time.

Reduced drilling takes a lot of time to show its effects so cannot be relied upon to produce higher oil prices in the short term unless the reduced drilling is already well underway. The effects from reduced drilling will be faster than in the past in a sense, though. This has to do with the fact that shale oil wells decline much faster than conventional wells, so when reduced drilling takes place, it will have an impact on production faster than in the past. Anyway, it's too early to be betting on that.

Conclusion

At this point, most of the short-term fundamentals do not point towards higher oil prices. It cannot be discounted that oil might remain at the present prices or head lower still but expecting near-term higher oil prices is not one of them.

On chart with EW, a clear bottom may be near 70 by Christmas , and we do not foresee an aggressive lift/ reversal on crude near term.

Duit dear,

sorry for the delayed reply...... on Crude futures

In my last prediction on crude in May 2014, , I said that oil prices were headed lower again. This was back in May 25, with WTI crude at $104.50. I expected a drop of 20% or so, and this was handily exceeded. The reason I expected crude to do badly was due to very long speculative positioning being mated to unfavorable fundamentals including expanded supply and excessive inventories.

I will seek to update on this opinion, namely due to the fact that I've sairecently So here it goes.

Speculative positioning

last prediction showed large speculators and managed money were at an historical record in terms of long speculative positioning.

Fundamentals

Inventories

U.S. inventories continue to be extremely elevated. When looking at a chart, they merely seem to be at the top of the 5-year range, however, it must be noticed that this top at this point in time was established last year - and at the time, the top greatly exceeded the 5-year band!

At these levels, crude inventories are not favorable for higher oil prices.

Production/Supply

Not only has Iraq production not been disrupted by ISIS, but we're getting Libyan production online again. Libya is again close to 1 million bpd after being as low as 0.2 million bpd back in June. This is adding tremendous supply pressure in a very short time



To this, we have to add the continuing expansion of U.S. production due to the shale revolution. Since June, the U.S. added roughly another 0.5 million bpd in crude production.

Again, the supply picture is not favorable for higher crude prices.

Demand

It's hard to pin down demand for crude on a worldwide scale. However, estimates for such demand over the year from the EIA have been going lower and lower. They now speak of an increased 0.7 million bpd demand, which is clearly below the recently added supply.

Crude exports from the U.S.

Together with massively increased shale oil production, there's also a new phenomenon - crude exports from the U.S. are increasing! This is relevant because, together with the ability to import less, it helps in re-establishing the arbitrage with other crudes, such as Brent crude. The increase is clear and unmistakable, as per EIA:

This includes both Canadian oil being re-exported and lightly-refined U.S. crude. This is not so much a factor for lower crude prices, as it is a factor for narrower spreads between Brent and WTI crude.

mathematical modelling with channel theory are now added to EW, so as to enhance its prediction accuracy especially on crowd behavior and sentiments....

happy trading

good morning to you all,

Oil shares sinks with crude , resulting weakened US futures.

Oil may drift down further in the 75-70 range, as its bottom is targeted at 70 near term.

happy trading

connie, sleep early, ok .....

be happy, ....

connie, dear..

can't sleep,?? too many worries ??? pls be happy mah...... life is too short to be in the Blue always....
I am always happy, positive all the day... , as my sifus sayings:- Yong is the only few in this world ,...he remains to be happy not only physically, but his entire soul, mind and outlook.... nothing can alter Yong's mindset..

skyhawk

yes, inari is a good buy tomorrow, expect to hit above 3.000,

Insas may be up and bullish too

happy trading

connie, dear, no drinking and love songs tonight ??

Longing EU futures continues today,... EU medicine distribution has started....., US futures look stable today too as panic resides with falling VIX index.

Tomorrow my Sifus will be back to US, but but my brainy lady wants to stay back for few more days lor....... aiyahhhh, i have a bit of problem... as her daddy has instructed me to take good care of her... I have clearly told her on my preferred tea but she is pretending not to know and she wants to make a go of it ......... anyhow, i must use my discretion well to handle this ...... hahahhh

happy trading

duitKWSPkita dear,

noted,.... i will keep them in my memory ... that is our next mission...., i am touched that you are one of limited few who knows what i am doing...., bye now and chat with you later,.....

connie, bye , see you later too,

happy trading

connie,

good ideas lor...... , thanks

happy trading

Duit,

you can hv another PHD in Psychology( inner working of the brains) lor.... haha...

superb views.....

happy trading

connie dear,
Dr Duit dear,

we will be back to KL tonight.... , I will bring them to a heavy drinking session , then going for hot dancing the whole night through....

happy trading

duit,

haha,... your views appreciated............ You really know my preferred tea lor....thanks

happy trading

trustme932 ,

yeap, hopefully China can do well .. as she is one of the main Engines for Global growth...

happy trading

Duit dear,

yeap agreed, as we hv more things/ others in life ..... we must be happy always and positive daily....

Thanks for your views

happy trading

connie dear,

thanks for your advice, suggestion..... hahah

happy trading

Dr Duit,

hope you will have a huat huat day too........

happy trading

connie dear,

the tea ?? am still considering lor... ,If i decide to drink that tea, Then i must be keeping my self updated every minute from Italian Bond aution , to US GDP's growth . to China Soft landing economy,... so that i can keep abreast with her hobby/ interest...... ooooh, do you think it is no fun at all ???..... I am still looking for ways to be happy always and live fruitfully every minute of my life, ....as life is too short....

wow, you are love sick kah ??? love songs with drinks last night ????
Take good care, dear,

Happy trading

connie, Bursa is for morning in, afternoon out lor..........HAHA

HAPPY TRADING

Bursa is only good for intra daytrading, connie dear............

happy trading

good morning to you all here... wish all huat huat today....... haha.....

Connie dear, Dr Duit.......... hope you all make some monies again today.....

happy trading

connie.... i will dream of you lor.......... hihi

happy trading

CONNIE DEAR,

hope all here are Huat huat lor........ i may go for a nap now as last night we hv long discussion hours with lots of drinks.... will chat with you all later...
happy trading

trustme932,

good morning,

the notes printing for EU will start this week, so we are looking for technical rebound on CAC, DAX, FTSE....

HAPPY TRADING

insas , looking good too

inari for intra day ... looking good

connie dear,

are you sure that you are advising me to try ?? hahaha, of course, you are my First always... hihiii

happy trading

Dr Duit,

be happy and charming always.... hahahh, be ready to assist some here to regain their losses lah..... hahaha

happy trading

Dr.duit dear,

good morning, wish you can huat huat today too

happy trading

connie, dear,

We had an excellent "Long long" day last Friday on DAX and CAC , boosting near +3% ,... hihi, I hv bought special presents for our PHD lady... hahah.. but i am still pondering whether I can try the "special cup of tea"?
.... just joking lor...... tomorrow we will be back to KL...

HAPPY TRADING

connie dear,

wishing you and ALL are having an excellent harvest today, all Huat huat lor.....

happy trading

connie,
Duit,
All here.......,

will chat with you later, i am going to another island resort now....

happy trading

connie dear...

pandai lor..... hihiii

happy trading

rchi

once you can see your profits, take them before end of the day, Next day repeating the same......,, as the Global futures are set for high volatility near terms......

happy trading

connie, dear.....

hihi....... no lah.., as one of my sifus is accompanied by his daughter lor... she has a PHD in economics... but unfortunately ,she is not my cup of tea for the time being ..... hihiii

pls do remember to do day trading.............

happy trading dear.....

connie dear,

do short term trading...... good for daytrading ..........as Global VIX index is still with high volatility

happy trading

connie dear,
shortly, we are going to Pulau Redang(off Trenggamu) . we will go there from Kuantan by air........

I am learning many things from my beloved 2 sifus, and they love me so much so that they want to adopt me respectively as their family members.... hihii

happy trading

Duit sayang,

I do know that you are getting the PHD.... may I know which area is of your specialization ???

I am doing some further research on EW in a US institute,... , waiting for their approval on my dissertation... hihi

happy trading...

Duit dear,

Your PHD kah ???? Congratulations lor...............

happy trading

connie dear

good morning to you. Last night Most major Global Futures stop bleeding as FED is talking about delaying QE, and ECB may have medicine by next week.....

We hv no trading last night but only discussing Global economy / outlook And some latest Tools for Trading, i am trying to steal my Sifus' Brains.... hahahah..

Hope that today Bursa rebounding may help to reduce your losses from the earlier trades....

happy trading

connie dear

Sep is jealous lor.... hihii

Duit ,

that is a red light area lah, full of private joints,... Sep is pulling our legs lah......

sephiroth

oooh........ thanks,.... haha....

connie dear,

i want to be your friend, not sifu....

sephiroth

what counters in kompleks sun ????

connie,dear

I learned this stop loss discipline from my Sifus years ago.... as our capitals could be completely wiped out without any auto stop loss cut within minutes from any open trades....

so this without cut loss point is strictly no no for me for any trading.

happy trading

connie dear

wow, you are a 1-man lady....

happy trading

connie dear,

I have not tried averaging down any counter so far , I normally cut loss when it hits my stop loss,

However, if being caught in a Bursa situation like this, averaging down may be a good idea lor..

happy trading

connie dear...

oooh, averaging down?? it may be a good idea, but do it slowly, as the price may still be drifting down little near term.......

happy trading