I not sure about her history cause I don't really read her blog but recently she is too famous, everyday she will have a blog in top article and I have habit of reading the top article everyday. But you are right that she is changing very fast, just for example for her call on O&G counter when oil price increase to USD 40 per barrel. If oil price drop back to USD 30 per barrel in 2 months time, will her write another blog on selling O&G stock. And USD 40 per barrel have no meaning to O&G industry because there is no producer that is willing to spend money now, additional profit that they get will be used to pay off their debt first because no one know what will the oil price be even next month.

so many reader here wish her bankrupt but unfortunately she will never bankrupt because whenever she is writing blog for buy call, probably she is selling. And when she ask you to sell the export stock, she is picking up export stock at bottom.

huh... you have a portfolio with majority export counter with no O&G counter while writing blog on selling export counter and buy O&G counter. Smart girl ya...

You are right that I never read kimLoong annual report cause I don't need to read the report to know this. Just simple fact that everyone in palm oil industry will know. From the 2 EBIT figure that you posted above, again proven KimLoong is Miller more than Planter. Just dig a bit more in their report and I am sure you will find the answer. How about revenue for their plantation and milling? If I remember correctly, their plantation only produce about 300,000 mt FFB per year, how will this enough to supply to their 3 mill total up to 250 mt FFB per hour.

It is not about she predicted it right or wrong but she really touch on the surface with limited knowledge. She dont even care to read into more detail before posting blog. For example of this kimloong, just a palm oil miller and not planter, which will not gain much from high CPO price. Simple check on their monthly production data, we will know that kimloong is buying more than 70 % of their FFB (assuming OER of 22 %) for processing. Which mean their plantation just able to support about 25 % of their mill capacity. But kimloong will be a good counter for dividend. And the way she come out with the target price really "laugh die me" too.

one point to note, Jaya Tiasa have announced earlier that they will stop planting new tree. Meaning this could be the end of their CAPEX cycle and hopefully this will translate into higher dividend like Taan and Kimloong.

Nice comment Aaron.

That is the nice part of share trading, if everyone think the same. we will have no chance to sell our oil & gas stock at high and buy export stock at low. Those who buy export stock yesterday will be launching to bank today.

hey guy. don't have to be so angry with faye tan. Market will punish her. Or maybe have been punished (by pertonm?) As whether USD will weaken further, we shall know after next FED meeting. As for myself, it might be worth to pick up oversold export counter now especially glove manufacturer. Rising oil price will not necessary equal to stronger RM because many factors contribute to weak RM like our political scandals, our structural economy problems and many more. I agreed that we have to buy oil and gas counter but not those from Malaysia. We all know why don't buy Malaysia oil and gas counter!! There are lots of good counter in US. In fact I invest heavily in commodity unit trust that focus on oil and gas and precious metal last few months.

The reason not selling to the "local buyer" was because they don't have experience running a refinery

Only refinery sold to Hengyuan, not Shell station. Shell station still belong to Shell Malaysia.

Speedyboy, petronm even worse, petronm will face exactly same problem with Shell - high cost to upgrade the plant to Euro 4 and Euro 5 standard, high expenses for turn around.

haha... If drop back I am the first to buy again... tangan gatal, just sold my share again just now

aiya.. so fast move up already

haha... This finally come!! I really scared shell price are not going to drop when I sell all my share last month when the news on china company buying shell with USD 130 mil was out. bought some just now and wait for it to drop more to buy more. haha

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/this-billionaires-wealth-grew-most-in-world-as-oil-prices-plunged

That indeed old news, some china news site reported it since 15 Jan 2016

I read more at newspaper from china and found that the USD 130 million was budgeted based on shell financial position at 27 Apr 2015 when NAV at about 1.00 and refinery margin of USD 2.65 per barrel (I don't think this estimation is right as refinery margin already recover at that time). But now, in order to take over shell, they will need to pay much more cause operating margin improved significantly and NAV increased too. Or else, all share holder will not approve the take over. So, this take over new is good news cause now we have more bidder. Remember some one from this forum (work in pork Dickson) is telling us that there is potential buyer from middle east? Now we have at least 2 bidders and both of them have strong reason to get a refinery in SEA.

I think take over news could be true, just the price is not reasonable

cooling, 1.90 not 7.00

let see whether shell Malaysia clarify this to investor tomorrow.

haha... EPF and government fund are the big share holder too. so no worry, they will get a good deal for us. hmm... same case for TITAN petrochemical few years back.

http://www.ccfgroup.com/newscenter/newsview.php?Class_ID=600000&Info_ID=20160118108

just crazy news? come out in china news already. not middle east but Chinese...

wtf. super bad news. Just USD 130 million?

That is why impairment lost on inventory is most difficult to predict. We do not know how much stock they keep as most of the analyst is predicting oil to drop to USD 20 per barrel. Will shell still keep high inventory or they might have fix the product cost with their customer when they buy the crude oil? For me, as long as shell enjoy reasonable refinery margin, shell will make money for coming few years. What we loss from inventory impairment today, we will get it back in future when crude oil price increase. Just that how many of us here are investor (not trader) and can wait until that to happen. That could be the reason why our friend Warren Buffet keep buying Philips 66 share, reasonable refinery margin and crude oil price can not drop forever. Let say this quarter end at USD 30 per barrel, next quarter drop another bloody USD 10 to end at USD 20 per barrel, What could be next? Drop another USD 10 per barrel or it will rebound?

kylo_Ren, Certainly entry below RM 5 is safer cause strong support at 485~490. Based on closing price of 524, your potential loss is 34 cent if drop back to 490. But if shell can up to RM 6 or even RM 8, how much profit we can make? That is why I didn't sell any of my shell share pass few days even I think that shell share price will drop back to around RM 5.

Anyway, quarterly should be out in one month time, just wait and we will know the answer. Happy Investing

Mystockdeck, I can see that you are assuming refinery margin same for all the quarter and try to extrapolate the result for coming quarter. Trust me, those thing only true in Mathematic classroom and never in financial world. What you should or can do is estimate the gross profit (you know the production capacity, refinery margin - can get from Bloomberg) and minus out the expenses (refinery will have quite fix expenses except Q3 2015 due to MTA of 44 days), finance cost (very high too due to high debt for shell) and depreciation. The tricky part is to estimate is loss/gain from derivative and stock holding gain / loss. You pointed out correctly that Y2014 refinery are very depress at only 2~3 USD per barrel. Margin have improved significantly in Y2015 around 6 ~ 8 USD per barrel in Q2 and Q3 2015. Try to guest how much is the refinery margin in Q4? I cant remember the exact value, I think should be 14~18 USD per barrel. Comparing to just than USD 3 per barrel a year a ago, that is why whole world is talking about refinery party.

I mean EPF selling Maybank on that day. not selling Shell

who care whether shell make profit or not, that is not their money anyway. Maybe they need money urgently to borrow someone. haha

EPF is selling Maybank like crazy too.
11 Jan 2016 - sold 2,242,000
08 Jan 2016 - sold 3,056,600

I think today EPF selling all the way down too

on 13 Jan 2016, total volume was 3,442,200. let see how many share sold were from EPF

Selling pressure from EPF lar...
on 12 Jan 2016, out of total volume 4,615,200, EPF sold 2,224,300 share. Almost 50 % of the selling were from EPF. EPF still have 14.665 % or 43,996,347 share. Good luck everyone.

steady my friend. Nobody will believe until they see the quarter result with big profit. Just like normal Malaysian, we will only run for life when we see the fire and no one will bother about the siren.

and TTB only holding 689,000 share only!! or he do own icap under other name? Attractive price to NAV but something fishy

and I just notice that the professional fee is very, RM 2.75 million versus assets of 413.789 million. That is 0.66 % per quarter. Just started to do research on icap today and look like I will not continue. The fee is not reasonable

When market crashed and stock are cheap, you close your eye and buy also can make money. We don't need a super fund manager to invest for us during that time. We need a fund manager that can pick a performing stock when market is stagnant or going no way and beat the market. Or else, why should we pay their high salary. And this TTB really missed a lot of good opportunity for the pass few year like export oriented stock (like top glove, furniture...). A true value investor should invest whenever we see the value and not keep cash and wait for the market crash.

Due date is on End Feb but normally Shell will release their quarterly result early.

I think the party will only start after the coming quarterly result. When I bought in shell, I only expect price to increase after the quarterly result and rally in pass few days is already bonus. Just that how many of us have the patient to hold until the quarterly result is out, now share is so cheap everywhere. Some might already take profit in shell and buy other share.

huh.. today drop so much

cooling, the good news is the party not going to end anytime soon!!

Warren Buffet

Kahheong, crude oil price drop by 23 % but product price did not drop that much. and that explain on the raising refinery margin. If I remember correctly, 3Q 2015 margin only 2~9 USD per barrel from Shell quarterly report and end Dec 15 have a margin of USD 17. Meaning product price will drop from (48.37 + 9 = USD 57.37) to (37.28 + 17 = USD 54.28). That is what I think and not sure whether correct or not.

Seriously, I bought in both petronm and shell after reading the news that WB is buying refinery. And now really make me hell a lot of money. haha... I also follow him buy news paper company too but return still not that good. My mediac only increase from 50 cent to 60 cent only.

I estimate at conservative of USD 12 per barrel but actual margin could be higher. Some quote from the article I share above

The profit that refiners in Asia make from turning crude into gasoline and diesel rose from US$15.93 per barrel on Nov 30 to US$17.66 per barrel on Dec 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Correct calculation should be like below
125000 barrels per day x 92 days = 11.5 million barrels per quarter X 12 USD per barrels X RM 4.2 per USD = RM 579.6 million gross profit. - RM 120 million expenses = RM 459.6 million

Divide by 300 million outstanding share = RM 1.532 per share

There might be some loss in stock value (product produced during crude oil price at around USD 40 but have to sell when crude oil price at 34 USD) and very difficult to estimate that.

Guess that's why PetronM is making so much money lately!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/saudi-aramco-raises-asia-oil-pricing-amid-higher-refiner-profits?type=Corporate

Saudi Aramco raises Asia oil pricing amid higher refiner profits

DUBAI (Jan 5): Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for all February oil sales to Asia amid higher refining margins in the region. It kept levels unchanged for most grades sold to the U.S.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by 60 cents a barrel to 80 cents below the regional benchmark, it said in an e-mailed statement. The company, known as Saudi Aramco, was expected to narrow the discount for Arab Light to Asia by 55 cents a barrel, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders.

The profit that refiners in Asia make from turning crude into gasoline and diesel rose from US$15.93 per barrel on Nov 30 to US$17.66 per barrel on Dec 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, won’t limit production and will seek to supply any demand from the market, Ali Al-Naimi, the country’s oil minister, said Dec 30 on state television. The country pumped 10.25 million barrels daily last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided last month, to set aside any formal target for production. The group has exceeded its previous target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Supply Glut

Brent crude tumbled 35% last year, as Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC chose to protect their market share instead of cutting output in an effort to support prices. Brent dropped from more than US$100 a barrel in July 2014, to trade at about US$37 on Tuesday, amid a global glut.

Saudi Aramco reduced the premium for Arab Extra Light crude to the U.S. by 50 cents a barrel to US$2.35 a barrel more than the benchmark, and kept price differentials for all other grades to the U.S. unchanged from January.

The company widened discounts for sales of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe for February, while keeping discounts for all crudes but Arab Light unchanged for buyers in the Mediterranean region.

Middle Eastern producers are competing increasingly with cargoes from Latin America, North Africa and Russia for buyers in Asia, its largest market. Producers in the Persian Gulf region sell mostly under long-term contracts to refiners. Most of the Gulf’s state oil companies price their crude at a premium or discount to a benchmark. For Asia, the benchmark is the average of Oman and Dubai oil grades.

50 cents is too conservative. If refinery margin is more than USD 12 per barrel for Q4, with shell refinery capacity of 125,000 barrels per day, try to calculate how much is the gross profit. And minus out operating expenses, Administration cost and finance cost of about RM 120 m (from pass quarterly result) and divide it with outstanding share of 300 m.