Thanks Nepo.

Another green activist changing attitude: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Activist-Investor-Engine-No-1-Founder-Urges-More-US-Shale-Production.html

Thanks twynstar for the promo.

My Q3FY22 earning is RM 122M with oil price at 95, Anasuria-160K barrel; NS-575K b; Repsol-1,160k boe. I was lazy in breaking Repsol into oil and gas, good job there, twynstar.

Wishing all a great week ahead, PEACE.

Thank you VenFx, have a great week.

twynstar - thank you for the analysis.

mokluhanj21 - thank you for the assumptions. One question - why is there a cost of finance of the CRPS as majority have converted, thanks.

twynstar: very true - nobody wants to get rich slow...

Coming catastrophe? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-oil-price-scenarios-one-bad-and-one-catastrophic

twynstar, thank you for reading. Sorry for not capturing your comment earlier as my visit here is infrequent.

Yes, indeed selling is much harder than buying. And noted the very good points on the potential of Hibiscus.

Export from Russia grinding to a halt:
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/70-russian-crude-trade-frozen-surgut-again-fails-sell-any-urals-big-tenders

Indeed, 70 million is a bit excessive now come to think about it.

That was my premise when I said Hibiscus buying Hibiscus when the Repsol deal was announced. Should the NAV goes near 1.40, then paying two times book value will mean Hibiscus price could be 2.80

This would mean 17 (earning) / 280 = 6.1% return.

rattynz, thank you for reading.

Between EBIT and Profit before tax, there is finance cost. There is no information on exact amount used from Trafigura's line, 70 million was allowed. This, thus, complicated the calculation. Apology for not showing this. Hope this clarify.

There is another issue that bugged me:
As a non-finance person, my thinking that the NAV in all reports (including the proforma) remains around 70+ sen is most unusual. From my limited business days, whenever I want to increase my revenue, I need to increase my assets to make it happen, that is, my NAV increases (OFC less any liabilities used to increase the assets).

So for Hibiscus, NAV to remains at 70+ sen but with production tripling, it is a miracle. So this coming May quarterly report will be most interesting.

DragonG - I am flabbergasted that you remembered. Will share my thoughts in the blog in the next couple of days.

witan - why is Putin really crazy? Thanks for your insight.

Calvin882 - how short will be the war, thanks.

A long read but worth it :

http://thesaker.is/the-eus-fit-for-55-farm-to-fork-and-the-freezing-of-nord-stream-2-a-mass-sacrifice-to-the-gods/

especially the sizes of these windmills and solar farms.

Also the amount of energy (mainly fossils fuels) required to get these solar farms and windmills up and running will be required.

So in conclusion, this transition (to renewable) will see higher consumption / demand of oil and gas in the coming years.

Enjoy the ride....

Yes, excellent. A show of confident. Thanks twynstar

twynstar, thanks for sharing. Yes, very bullish that shale oil meeting their limit.

Do not forget the negative goodwill that would be added, should push eps further. This reflect the excellent acquisition price (super low at today's oil price) - excellent management foresight.

Moneymore, RPS estimate revenue of US$217 (RM1.13b) in 2022, FY or CY? Thanks in advance.

I must say, the "Viagra" work. So, maybe 2Q results is more than decent??

Dividend is possible as cash-flow from Jan till today should be UP, UP UP, maybe change dividend policy to quarterly payment too!?

Could someone please explain why oil price (Brent) in oilprice.com remains at 94++ why over at Investing.com, it is 92. Thank you very much.

DragonG, many thanks for the Maybank's report.

ks5S, what are your view on refineries not ramping up production, thank you.

BennyWhittman, appreciate if you will explain why it is a no no ...

Thanks

Hibiscus Marigold going to be Fast-Tracked ... https://www.thevibes.com/articles/business/53993/hibiscus-petroleums-uk-project-gets-rishi-sunak-backing

Greenfield, brownfield, does not matter as long as oil (& gas) is being produced NOW!

Happy Birthday everyone...

Looking at all the Majors announcing high revenue / profit for Q4 FY21 giving higher dividends and share buy backs, maybe, just maybe, Hibiscus might declare another round of dividend this coming Q2FY22 announcement soon.

Happy Tiger year to all investors on this thread. May the Tiger brings excellent health and joy to you all.

A word of caution - Hibiscus' Q2 FY22 (to be announced this month) is for Oct 21 to Dec 21 production. So Repsol's production would not be included. The first quarter to include Repsol's production would be Q3 FY22 that should be announced in May 2022.

BTW nashvz, what would be Dayang's expected TP in the coming FY22/23?

There is so many moving parts that influence oil price, here is an article that hopefully provide some balance view: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-entering-political-intervention-territory-goldman-warns-could-force-opec-boost

Peace and enjoy the 2nd day holiday...

Witan, yes, one should not be greedy. I am not into glove and IT, i.e. I do not appreciate their fundamental in details and I cannot say much about their future in terms of revenue growth etc.

However, for oil-price, there is, fundamentally, supply constrain (of course, this could be manufactured - i.e. supply purposely held-back) and demand is trending higher reaching 2019 level and in some cases already exceeding it. OFC, another variant could derail this. At usd 85 (I have allowed usd 5 as "war" premium), Hibiscus would increased its revenue going forward not only from ASP (average selling price) but also volume of product (~3X). Obviously, profits will skyrocket as well.

Wouldn't all these (increased revenue from ASP & 3X volume + higher profit) play a part in determining whether one "invest" or not into Hibiscus. Are you saying these are totally irrelevant, and it is all based on sentiment / chart?

Of course if in the following weeks, Hibiscus were to shoot up to say 1.50, then it will be prudent to take profit.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2022/1/27/cash-flush-shale-operators-consider-raising-oil-output-along-with-dividends/

Three things to take away:-
1) Production in the shale patch will increase (most likely H2)
2) Hence, in 4Q to next year, oil price likely moderate lower
3) Hibiscus will certainly be flush with cash - higher dividend?

I also heard that Hibiscus has started taking over the operation of Repsol assets from O&G industry player.

“We see a shift from stigmatization toward criminalization of investing in higher oil production.” – Bob McNally, former White House official.

Unless another "Omicron" comes around, sit tight for a strong rally in oil price.....

Excellent twynstar. Only action is to sit tight and wait. This is the most demanding task - sitting still while all around this and that stock gain this % and that %. Much noise to distract focus.

Happy New Year to you and all investors here.

twynstar, thank you for the summary. Merry Xmas and Happy new year.

The current Omicron bahalu, IMHO, is a bit overblown - https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fking-scandalous-sage-modeller-admits-they-dont-model-good-outcomes-lockdown-policymakers

Merry Xmas and a happy New Year. Also, happy Winter Solstice.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/move-oil-excessive-goldman-says-brent-plunge-has-overshot-fundamental-risk

A good article on release of SPR effects: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-spr-release-now-fully-priced-and-will-send-oil-price-even-higher-2022

twynstrar, indeed, yes, there will definitely negative goodwill after the completion of the deal.

cash999, balance sheet movement will need to be backed up with revaluation by "expert", much like REITs where properties are revaluated by companies like CH William.

Thus, obviously, Hibiscus' asset is undervalued currently.

derrtan, yes, it is sentiment driven now. There is no fundamental as I checked latest EIA data released yesterday, there actually was a draw for crude oil as well as products (gasoline, diesel, jet-fuel etc.). SPR has been releasing crude every week for the last 10 weeks (last 2 weeks @ >3 mb/wk).

And releasing from SPR is actually transferring from left pocket (tank) to right pocket (tank), it does not in anywhere improve fundamental crude supply (from oil fields).

Here is some more renewal energy idiosyncrasy: https://www.greanvillepost.com/2021/11/16/the-green-energy-cult/

KingKong_Doll, no, not cashing out. I am going to sink or swim with the Repsol deal. I just do not believe, the fundamental will lose to chart..., 3X production gain!!!! Even should oil price drop back to 70s, there is still the increase of 3X production!!!!

The constant buying and selling for chartist, I wonder whether they have consider the incidental costs (commission, stamp duties).

On Friday last, Hibiscus signed an agreement with FIPC (Repsol's subsidiary that hold the assets being acquire) to assist in the transition to Hibiscus (ensure continuous smooth operation). NOW, Hibiscus would not sign such a deal if the completion of the acquisition is not near.

Indeed good luck and peace.

well KingKong_Doll, it appears that whatever calculation, it is a useless endavour. Fundamental does not play any part at all. It is all hype now. Currently, it is not sexy. Later, may become a bit sexy or not at all. Sad really.

@sheep, chart...

So the acquisition of Repsol's assets does not play a part at all in the valuation. It is a worthless / pointless acquisition, the highly likely increase of production by 3 times has no value at all...

Vaclav Smil: Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada (Science Academy) - Moving Away from Fossil Fuels (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxjiIoZoO0w)

Yes, interest over 8% is too high. With financial institutions extremely adverse to oil & gas projects can only be good for oil price.

Thank you for reading. Hope that it is useful.

Titan, indeed should Repsol assets (or NSabah too) be considered late-life assets, then the reduced tax rate is most welcomed. As usual - devil is in the details, what constitute late-life?

I can appreciate what the government is trying to do - incentivizing operators to continue production. So, maybe Exxon or Shell might reconsider selling.

twynstar, thank you for the tax info and appreciated the promo...

The alternative is for Exxon to carve out its Malaysian asset into smaller bits to sell.

At US$ 2 to 3B, there are no local (O&G) players.

PTT could have the free cash flow.

Shell also selling one of its Sarawak field: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/07/22/shell-launches-sale-of-stakes-in-malaysian-oil-and-gas-fields--document. But as a non-operator, it is not so attractive.

Since Hibiscus might raise a US$300m bond, there might be another asset buy around the corner.

KingKong_Doll, thanks. My bad for not reading the report from Ambank. As for the other O&G companies, as I stated before are not producer at all and therefore subjected to ITA.