mokluhanj21 - what would be crazy dividends. A 10sen would be RM 200+M pay out from the company.

Nine months revenue = RM 1.08B; Free Cash Flow = RM616M-79M(Capex)-21M(Intangible) = RM516M
Estimated 12 months revenue = RM 1.83B; FCF = RM 850M
With such large FCF, what to do with cash? Buy back shares? 10sen dividend? Keep to develop Sunflower/Marigold?

Bob, there is currently no gas flow thru NS1 due to schedule maintenance until July 22.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-braces-europes-july-22-doomsday

Fellow investors - it is not only Malaysia O&G, it is all over the world. If it is only Malaysia, then worry.

And it is going into summer time in the Northern hemisphere, Middle East themselves will be using more oil to keep cool in the heat-waves.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Should-Stay-In-Triple-Digits-Analyst.html

Now it is the MD buying, excellent news.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Italy-Voice-Support-For-More-Fossil-Fuel-Investments-Abroad.html

There is this to & fro among the collective west on investment on fossil fuel. These investments if ever they materialize, will not bring any oil / gas to market for at least 3 to 7 years down the road.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Italy-Voice-Support-For-More-Fossil-Fuel-Investments-Abroad.html

There is this to & fro among the collective west on investment on fossil fuel. These investments if ever they materialize, will not bring any oil / gas to market for at least 3 to 7 years down the road.

If this is to be believed (the last part about Saudi) : https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-runs-us-strategic-oil-reserve-lowest-1986-uae-warns-not-expect-any-help-opec

Furthermore, highly likely that a 1.5 sen dividend will be declare this coming August when 4QFY22 is announced given the good cash flow. This will gives a 1.6% yield (assume average price for latest purchase is RM 0.95/share). Not bad for less than three-month holding with capital appreciation too.

PSAi3alert - thank you for the elaboration. Still, what is the point that you wanted to make? Perhaps this is what you meant: that the additional purchases by Datuk Michael is a drop in the ocean and matters little?
OR,
as per rattynz explanation, that he is showing faith in the company, even averaging up?

Generally, it is a positive sign when a major shareholder buys into a bear market, and, for me, it is a positive sign.

But, I take note of the huge amount of shares traded over those days you stated.

twynstar - thank you.

PSAi3alert - you point is ....

ESG on fossil fuel - the suffocation of fund to fossil fuel starting at 6:07
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewa-m2NOgns&t=483s

Reading AmInvest report again, it infer the missed production ("erratic" in the report) of Repsol assets in Q3 22. This is rather harsh as it has been explained by management. Reasons given is within operational risks and also completion of Repsol deal is what it is. To deem it erratic (given previous track record) is overly conservative and also given Q4 22 barrels (to be) sold was provided.

twynstar - exactly. I just do not understand the discount of 49% and 59% used by AmInvest. What is it that justify these large discounts, poor management, just being in Malaysia, execution risks (not able to realize the 2P reserve)? AmInvest should explain.

Goldman thinking is similar : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-again-hikes-oil-price-target-now-sees-barrel-hitting-140-125

An alternative view on energy issues in europe and food crises: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Amq-cmGZCQ

Sharing ...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-too-late-buy-oil-stocks

Sir / Madam, appreciate if you will advice how you derived the PBT of only RM 13.1M, thank you.

Another nail in the coffin of increasing oil supply:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Judge-US-Must-Conduct-Climate-Review-Of-Leases-Before-Drilling-Can-Commence.html

Skynet2022, everyday bullmarket1628 comment on the oil price and always end with Hibiscs going limit up; maybe this is what you heard, goreng up.

Apology bullmarket1628, for the pun, but always appreciative for the updates on oil price.

Anyone here knows where to get high sulfur fuel oil price?

Thanks

Looking back to 2018 when Q3 18 results that was released on 28/5/18, then because the completion of N Sabah deal was 31/3/18, a negative goodwill was recognized without any barrels sold (from NS). That created a price destruction of similar magnitude. And this happened with a reduction of oil price too.

Today, the drop in price happened with a rising oil price, a double whammy. Maybe due to C20 or whatever, the market is really irrational at time. Investors really need nerve of steel. The magnitude of price drop in both cases was around 12%.
Also, there was deferment in oil sold (Anasuria in 2018) and N Sabah this time. As they said, history repeats itself.

For those interested in Russia oil and why europe needs Russia oil here is an article:
https://thesaker.is/dear-ursula-you-are-dead-wrong/

Raymond – “furthermore repsol returns were from an associate and therefore did not show in the revenue”; this is confusing. Care to elaborate, thanks.

The above conflict with page 17 of the Q3 report that clearly state that revenue from repsol assets is accounted under “sale of crude oil and gas”. The total figure (under Group) is cumulative, i.e. 824,196 – 528,142 = 296,054 (exclude project management & interest income).

Yes, I agree that the market looked at the normalized PAT RM 35m and decided it is rubbish. I remember when N Sabah was combined, again with negative goodwill, Hibiscus suffered similar destruction in value.

As negative goodwill is a non-cash item, it does not really bring in any cash. But strictly, it should be viewed as “cash have not gone out”, an equally important if not more important aspect – cash not leaving the company and assets coming in that will bring mountain of cash.

Also, there are big time players that pried on unsuspecting “investors” (day to short term players).

Bob - nazrzach explained it beautifully and fully agreed. Cannot add anymore.

nazrzach - no, all public listed companies do not provide yearly forecast. The respective investment banks that cover those companies do.

This is the first time Hibiscus provides the SALE figures (barrels oil equivalent) in the Q3 report. While I think mining companies (listed) are obliges to provide (monthly) production figures. So, coming back to Hibiscus, the April figures are confirmed while for May the figures should be relatively firmed while figures for June would be subjected to changes as it is dependent on future events.
Raymond – yes by Bursa regulation it is not required. But it is most welcome as it takes care of a lot of guess work, hence, volatility out. By the way it is not production that is being reported, it is SALE figures.

Raymond, my apology on the earlier reply on AE. The studies on possible PSC extension and projects to be executed as well as reserve assessment should all be capitalized.

The expenses (in AE) that will be incurred for the Repsol assets would be the transition cost incurred. This is the Transition Service Agreement (TSA) entered into between Hibiscus and Repsol back in 12 Nov 2021. This TSA will last 9 months from completion of the deal date (25/1/22) and include IT services as well as certain management level manpower. This I believe is calculated based on production and not barrels sold - timing issue.

Thank you for reading Raymond.

In arriving at AE, there are many items e.g., engineering studies, reserve assessments (to determine the negative goodwill), admin salaries (directors), and so on that cannot be attributed to operation of particular fields. In this particular quarter, there were many expenses that is related to the takeover of the Repsol assets and is one-off. That is next quarter, these expenses would not be incurred (not recurring). The reserve study (which is expensive) is such one-off. There could be more in the coming quarters as Hibiscus would want to extend the (Repsol) PSC as well as determine what are the projects to be carried out to either maintain current production or further increase production. Again, these studies are not cheap - can run into 10s of millions.
Expenses incurred for these studies and others related to Repsol assets was taken up this quarter while production sold was only for 2 months and none from Kinabalu – timing issue as accountant say.
The “bumper” profits for Q4 was not done as I was pushed for time. Will try to make an estimate when time permit.
Hope the above help and Happy investing, peace.

Again back to fundamental - even the shale oil players are also facing issues: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Permian-Frackers-Blame-Supply-Chain-Bottlenecks-For-Stymied-Growth.html

All these are not going to be resolved tomorrow. It all takes time. So oil price will remains elevated.

twynstar - thank you very much.

This would be a knee jerk reaction to (uk) windfall tax and other perceived headwind. Cyclical or not, the oil price is not going anywhere "south" based on fundamental. Studying past records, current high prices should last at least 3 years (or more). Why 3 years (minimum), because it will take that long to increase supply (FID, design, fabricate, install and drill wells) to match demand that is showing no signs of slowing.

twynstar - thank you for the comprehensive insights.

myongcc5 - 7 sens, very bullish. This includes negative goodwill and the likes?

Proff P, congratulation to you and the others who invested about same time should be reaping >100% return.
Question now, would it double again to 3 (2x1.5) within 12 months?

derrtan - what should it be then?

mokluhanj21 - the market is perfect as they said ....

Virust - while I share some of the enthusiasm, have you consider the possibility of crude oil price may also go down? If not, why not.

Here is a take on the perennial discussion on "Buy & Hold": https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-and-hold-investing-it-one-size-fits-all-solution

Congratulation kahhoeng on your performance at Hengyuan. Well done.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-rises-as-eu-confirms-ban-on-russian-oil-products-import-by-yearend-2816769

Cool person, single handed raise the oil price by about usd 5 per barrel.

Why oil will be us for a long time to come:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fossil-Fuels-Arent-Going-Away-Anytime-Soon.html

Selamat Hari Raya to all Muslim investors and happy holidays to non-Muslim investors

With excellent cash flow, will Hibiscus declare a special dividend like CNOOC?

From latest EIA data, there is no change fundamentally to supply constraint while demand remains resilient. Once China lockdown is lifted, missing demand in China will return with a vengeance.

BennyWhittman - thank you for the kind words.

Yezzy99108 - the sudden surge might be due to the sudden depreciation of ringgit from 4.266 to 4.287 to 1 usd. This depreciation is probably due to the FED increasing interest resulting in repatriation of usd back to us (i.e. selling ringgit for usd).

OFC, buying Sapura is out of the question. But, Sapura has a subsidiary, SapuraOMV that recently produce "first gas" offshore Sarawak. This would be the ONLY part of Sapura if EVER Hibiscus might be interested in.

derrtan, what kind of implication you are thinking about?

Climate changes is there, but is it the cause of warming: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/climate-change/

Correlation is not necessary causation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-warns-self-sustaining-physical-financial-deficit-doom-loop-looms-oil-prices