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28 comment(s). Last comment by huat stock 2017-12-27 23:13

Jay

1,126 posts

Posted by Jay > 2017-12-05 11:40 | Report Abuse

still unshamefully spreading lies, why don't you share the source of your crack spread data
http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=JAN_2018_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=F8&year=2018&exchangeCode=XNYM

all refineries go through statutory turnaround, even the likes of petchem etc. if what you only see is the drop in production from this scheduled downtime, again shows how short sighted or limited in knowledge of the industry

Posted by HENGYUAN @RM21 CONFIRM COMING > 2017-12-05 12:16 | Report Abuse

another joker again....this richDAD is lousy analyst.

Aero1

1,435 posts

Posted by Aero1 > 2017-12-05 13:40 | Report Abuse

shallow ...

tftey

326 posts

Posted by tftey > 2017-12-05 16:12 | Report Abuse

Crack Margin for Q4 is even better than Q3.

vimediac

121 posts

Posted by vimediac > 2017-12-05 18:31 | Report Abuse

kyy also selling la.. why kyy selling??

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-05 20:33 | Report Abuse

WHY HENGYUAN IS STILL GOOD BUY DESPITE RICH DAD THINK OTHERWISE LOH.?

REMEMBER RICHDAD IS A SPECIAL GUY...HE IS THE GUY WHO TELLS THE WHOLE WORLD HENGYUAN TP IS WORTH RM 10.00, WHEN THE HRC PRICE WAS RM 4.00 TO RM 5.00, THUS HIS ANALYSIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED REASONABLY FAIR AND GOOD LOH...!!

BUT REMEMBER FAIR & REASONABLE DOES NOT MEAN THE CURRENT ANALYSIS RIGHT LOH...!!

LETS EXAMINE LOH..!!

richDad): HENGYUAN - 3 reasons why it is a SELL now

Author: richDad1 | Publish date: Tue, 5 Dec 2017, 09:42 AM

1. Refinery margin has declined in 4Q (to be lower than 3Q).
DID THE MARGIN REALLY GOING FALL LEH ??

RAIDER SAY NOT REALLY LOH...!!
IF U BASED ON OCT & NOV ALREADY PASSED THE CRACK SPREAD IS ABOVE USD 10.00 LOH...!!

IF U BASED ON DEC TODATE IT RANGE FROM USD 9 TO 10. BUT NOW LATEST IS USD IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE USD 9 LOH..!

REMEMBER THIS LOH; WHEN HENGYUAN REPORT 3RD CULMULATIVE EPS OF RM 2.41 PER SHARE, THEY ACTUALLY SAID THE AVERAGE CRACK SPREAD OF USD 8.00 LOH...!!
BUT U NOTICE THAT THE CRACK SPREAD FOR 4TH QTR CURRENTLY, SHOULD EXCEED USD 9.00, THUS THE ESTIMATED 4TH QTR EPS SHOULD BE GOOD BETWEEN RM 0.80 TO RM 1.00 LOH..!!
THUS THE ANTICIPATED ANNUAL 2017 RESULT IS REALLY GOOD AT RM 3.00 TO RM 3.40 LOH...!!

HENGYUAN good earnings for 3Q this year is mainly caused by higher refinery margin caused by HURRICANE HARVEY. MOGAS 92 spread appreciated to the highest level in 2017 in Sep. However, things have normalized since then.
NOT TRUE LOH...HARVEY GIVE THEM SUPERB SPREAD AS HIGH AS USD 14 TO 16, BUT THESE THEY ENJOY FOR A FEW DAYS ONLY LOH...!!

THE REAL GOOD SPREAD MAJORITY IS USD 8 TO 10 LOH...!!
THIS HIGH SPREAD IS DUE TO OVERALL LOW SUPPLY IN THIS INDUSTRY, DUE TO LACK OF INVESTMENT FOR MANY YEARS, AND OLDER REFINERY CLOSE DOWN BCOS UNABLE TO COMPLY WITH STATUTORY ENVIRONMENT REQUIREMENT LOH...!

2. Next year earnings may decline due to 2.5 months scheduled downtime.
The link to the 3Q result is here, go to the last page of the PDF file.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcem...
TRUE LOH...BUT EVEN IF U TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION OF 2.5 MTHS SHUTDOWN, THE NETT IMPACT ON EPS STILL REMAIN RM 2.50, WHICH STILL CONSIDER CREDIBLE AND UNDERVALUE BASED ON PE 4.5X COMPARE TO PETDAG PE 20X MAH...!!
THUS, THE IMPACT IS NOT THAT GREAT LOH...!!

3. Stock price already up 116% since May.
In ADDITION I am taking profit now as the outlook for 4Q is not great. The earnings is also expected to decline next year due to the shut down.
THIS RAIDER SAYS THE MAIN CULPRIT THE SHARE PRICE LOH...!! RICHDAD ONLY EXPECT TP RM 10.00, BUT WE NAVE EXCEEDED RM 11.00, THUS HE IS SATISFY AND READY TO SALE LOH..!!
AS FOR EPS EARNINGS,HENGYUAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CREDIBLE, EVEN DURING THE PERIOD OF SHUTDOWN LOH...!!

BUT BASED ON WARREN BUFFET INVESTMENT WAY, IT IS NOT THIS WAY. WHEN U JUST REACHED TP.. U SELL LOH....THE DECISION SHOULD BE WHETHER THEY ARE MORE POTENTIAL FOR HRC AND SUFFICIENT MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH ?...!!

I still maintain my long term Target Price of RM15
THUS U SHOULD HELD ON HENGYUAN UNTIL AND AT LEAST TP 15.00 SHORT TERM IS REACHED LOH...!!

billionn

731 posts

Posted by billionn > 2017-12-05 23:14 | Report Abuse

then i think it is safe to buy

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-12-05 23:39 | Report Abuse

The crack spread image is so wrong. seem like tampered from old chart and pasted. Can see there is no continuity. The oil is rising because the production cut, which eventually can cause supply choke. Oil and gas is heading to optimisation of supply (oil driller and produce) and demand (refineries, consumer). I can only foresee that this high crack spread situation will maintain. The author just want to justify his action to sell, but having to cheat by providing photoshopped image is crime. Mistaken can be forgiven but not cheating....

richDad1

22 posts

Posted by richDad1 > 2017-12-06 07:13 | Report Abuse

this is the source of my chart ...

https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/CME_1NB1-Singapore-Mogas-92-Unleaded-Platts-Brent-Crack-Spread-Futures-Continuous-Contract-1-1NB1-Front-Month

Click on the "SETTLE" button to see the updated chart up to December

Posted by HENGYUAN @RM21 CONFIRM COMING > 2017-12-06 07:15 | Report Abuse

I guess another round of good profit soon. At least till q1 2018??

Frank Tan

533 posts

Posted by Frank Tan > 2017-12-06 10:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks to richdad,bcos of this post, i can add some below 11.
Make me rich a little bit,CHEERS

Posted by HENGYUAN @RM21 CONFIRM COMING > 2017-12-06 10:54 | Report Abuse

3 reason to sell, only one reason I understand, stupid, stupid and stupid

Alex Foo

12,593 posts

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-12-06 10:57 | Report Abuse

haha, why i3 forumer must cheat?

myongcc5

708 posts

Posted by myongcc5 > 2017-12-06 12:23 | Report Abuse

Intention must b good otherwise u will remain unskilled

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-06 12:26 | Report Abuse

I believe richdad intention is good, but he may have misinterpreted some essential info loh....!!

Tai KT

1,419 posts

Posted by Tai KT > 2017-12-06 12:52 | Report Abuse

mo4 only will be ready in 2nd half of 2018, when the time of shut down, the new facility will be ready to us.

SmartyAlek

885 posts

Posted by SmartyAlek > 2017-12-06 13:41 | Report Abuse

richdad1 gave buy call and GKENT dropped badly a few days later. so make your own decisions. it is your money

Posted by Stafenny Kok > 2017-12-07 11:37 | Report Abuse

HAHA....rich dad want buy hengyuan at cheaper price....so you asking people to sell heng yuan.

mamatede

3,950 posts

Posted by mamatede > 2017-12-07 12:40 | Report Abuse

when kyy is heavily promoting a counter, start running

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2017-12-07 13:43 | Report Abuse

Heng Yuan is my star buy - tell me why i want to sell ???

JN88

11,670 posts

Posted by JN88 > 2017-12-07 13:45 | Report Abuse

No dividend, no free warrant , no bonus issue . Sell Heng Yuan...unless ask the director bonus issue and free warrant.

Impossible...China Man....sapu semua.

Posted by HENGYUAN @RM21 CONFIRM COMING > 2017-12-07 22:09 | Report Abuse

Earning 100% is good. But you gonna miss out next 900% if sell now!

Posted by HENGYUAN @RM21 CONFIRM COMING > 2017-12-07 22:10 | Report Abuse

Remember JHM,Kesm

Posted by Azerin Jopril > 2017-12-27 22:49 | Report Abuse

lying analysist

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-27 22:56 | Report Abuse

(richDad): HENGYUAN: 3 reasons why I upgrade my Target to RM20

Author: richDad1 | Publish date: Wed, 27 Dec 2017, 12:52 PM

1. For the first time ever, Hengyuan management is talking to the media. This is the news http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/26/c_136852857.htm

We all know that China companies seldom talk to the media unless they have a good story to tell.

This is a big news as Xinhua News Agency is the official press agency of China.

Xinhua is also the biggest and most influential media organization in China!



2. Still undervalued even at RM16.5 (equivalent to 5x PE).



The stock registered RM2.42 EPS for first 9 months. In 3Q alone it made EPS of RM1.21. For 4Q, I conservatively estimate EPS of only 91 sen to make up FY17 EPS of RM3.33. This means HENGYUAN is only at 5x PE even at RM16.50



3. The Edge Weekly highlighted HENGYUAN as the top performer in 2017



Again, as The Edge Weekly is read by many fund managers, it will create more demand for the shares from fund managers.

Conclusion: NEW TARGET IS RM20



My previous TP of RM15 has been reached much faster than expected as I didn't expect HENGYUAN management to speak to the media. I also did not expect strong promotion from The Edge Weekly.



After factoring these, the new TP is RM20 (from RM15)

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2017-12-27 22:57 | Report Abuse

Chance for others get at discount price

huat stock

2,797 posts

Posted by huat stock > 2017-12-27 23:13 | Report Abuse

who care...it will go up to 30...then i will only start to sell some

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