10 people like this.

96 comment(s). Last comment by CJkenho 2021-01-26 20:46

wbwanabe

218 posts

Posted by wbwanabe > 2021-01-18 14:10 | Report Abuse

Ben, since you track the numbers so diligently, is it possible for you to track on EPF holdings once their loan shares were return plus any additional shares that EPF has added in during the period when they are under the radar?. It may seems to be an exercise in futility if the loan amount return is not stated as "return shares from SBL".
The reason I am requesting is because I noticed in the announcement sections, EPF can be a buyer and seller on the same day and it puzzles me no end. I always thought who in the right mind would buy and sell at the same time, makes no sense at all. Then now I think it makes perfect sense as in one hand they are selling down for their shorties (via SBL) and on the other hand they are buying what they are shorting. Hence any time shorties are throwing, EPF may be the one picking up these cheap shares. Implications from here would be :
- there would be support for the shares below a certain price
- EPF knowing the operations to selldown may be the biggest beneficiary cause they are now getting it at a cheaper price and would sell them in the open market. As such the shorties would have no choice but to buy at a higher price when the time has run out for them.
- this may work if the prospects are still good for the shares being shorted, example the glove counters. Looking at the current stock prices, ie still holding above 6 for TG and Smax may be an indication that the shorties are failing miserably in their attempt to short the Big 4
- be prepared for more "bad articles" or negative news since the shorties are so desperate
Possible?

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-18 15:38 | Report Abuse

wpwanabe, EPF is most certainly the biggest beneficiary from the entire exercise, because they are both able to pick up more shares at a lower price, and at the same time they receive a fee from the short seller for lending out their shares. Additionally, they may know better than anyone (other than the short seller) when exactly the short position is going to be closed, thus timing their actions in the best possible manner. It is precisely because the prospects for the glove counters are stellar that EPF has agreed to participate in this exercise.

I am following all of the public announcements, and trade volumes, including short selling volumes.

wbwanabe

218 posts

Posted by wbwanabe > 2021-01-18 17:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks for all the hard work. Your write up is very thorough and I am sure help lots of newbies who are ignorant about RSS.

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-18 17:46 | Report Abuse

@Ben Tan, based on your analysis, do you know what is the main reason that triggered the massive spike in glove share prices on the 8th of Jan? It couldn't be just MCO 2.0 news right?

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-18 18:07 | Report Abuse

wbwanabe, thank you, I hope it has benefited at least someone!

SteadyT, thank you for your comment.

It is hard to say if the spike in the share price of the glove counters was caused only by the MCO rumors or by something else. Certainly the rumors, which started around that week's Thursday, were a major catalyst though. It is possible that there might have been some fund outflow from bank stock into glove stock because of that reason.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-18 23:11 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,very thankful for your detailed explanation

Cescmy

2 posts

Posted by Cescmy > 2021-01-18 23:47 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for your insightful write up

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-19 11:14 | Report Abuse

tylee81 and Cescmy, thank you for your comments.

Let's just sit tight and observe.

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-19 13:40 | Report Abuse

There is actually no way for us to find out who was the one that shorted right?

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-19 14:00 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, not any way that I know of. The only thing we know for sure is that on Monday (January 4), it was "foreign" participants on Bursa who initiated the biggest short sale:
https://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl6707_capture_4.jpg

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-19 16:56 | Report Abuse

I see. Even today 19/1, there is still 0 RSS done on Topglove. The attack shifted to Kossan. Is it because the shorties are worried that it will hit TG's 4% limit too fast?

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-19 17:25 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, if there is one thing that is special about Kossan, it is that it is the only stock in which the short position is not losing too much. They are trying to keep the price within a range around RM4.20, and they are apparently buying back the shares slowly. For instance, on Friday 1,770,145 shares have been bought back, i.e. about 3.25% of the short position (as of that time) has been closed.

This is the ideal scenario for the short seller - slowly suppressing the price by continuously selling short in order to curb any upward momentum, while at the same time slowly buying back on downtrends.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-19 22:41 | Report Abuse

@ben tan u have any idea hw long this rss will last?as we knw time is very crucial for them and they r racing with the time

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-20 08:45 | Report Abuse

tylee81, unfortunately there is no way to say. However, it is almost 100% certain that they cannot hold until after the dividend ex-date for the next quarter of any of the companies. The announcements for Supermax and Hartalega are coming very soon, so the short closing will likely happen within this month.

yong99

37 posts

Posted by yong99 > 2021-01-20 09:48 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ben for sharing this valuable information

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 11:30 | Report Abuse

@ben tan, tqvm for ur replied

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 12:24 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,ss has totally wrong targeted,i don't think they can persist if they continue to lose money.it's jst the matter of time when they will give up as more n more news has emerged e.g the rising of asp,tremendous co earnings,doubtful vaccine efficacy,spiking of virus etc,all this r bad to them.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-20 13:02 | Report Abuse

yong99 and tylee81, thank you for your comments.

tylee81, there are currently certain suspicions circulating around that this is a classic "short and distort" campaign. The bad publicity on Top Glove in particular has certainly been way overblown and excessive, much beyond what would have normally been expected. Thus, it is really hard to predict anything right now.

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-20 16:03 | Report Abuse

Hi again, can you elaborate more about the dividend ex-date part? The short sellers will have to pay for the dividend is it? Thanks!


@Ben Tan tylee81, unfortunately there is no way to say. However, it is almost 100% certain that they cannot hold until after the dividend ex-date for the next quarter of any of the companies. The announcements for Supermax and Hartalega are coming very soon, so the short closing will likely happen within this month.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-20 16:13 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, yes, if the short seller doesn't return the shares to the original lender before the dividend ex-date, the short seller will have to cover the sum paid as dividend on those shares.

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

But if the short sellers are borrowing the said shares, they should also receive dividend from the said company isn't it? So, the short sellers don't actually have to fork out their own money

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, the short seller will receive dividend only if they buy back the shares before the ex-date. That is exactly what I meant above - they have to buy back the shares before the ex-date.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 16:28 | Report Abuse

@ben tan that's the most interesting part,tks again

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-20 16:32 | Report Abuse

Oh okay, it makes sense to me now, Thanks for the prompt explanation!!

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-20 16:33 | Report Abuse

No wonder they don't really short Supermax a lot. As they will announce their QR very soon

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 16:42 | Report Abuse

Even tg also won't last long as qr will out nxt month

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 16:55 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,if tg release a bombastic QR do u think its possible shorter will continue short?

Anthem2

305 posts

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-01-20 17:00 | Report Abuse

That's why the price manipulation for accumulation. If you trust in your valuation, just sit still and enjoy the comic relief in the forum. All that shouting and screaming is all just noise and it's proof something's brewing.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-20 18:36 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, tylee81, Anthem2, thank you once again very much for your comments.

SteadyT, yes, that might be one of the reasons for why the attack on Supermax is not as massive. However, I believe the more important reason is that institutional investors don't have as large positions in Supermax's stock, as they do on TG, Harta, or Kossan. EPF and KWAP are not among the top 25 shareholders of Supermax, and the 25th (RHB) holds only 0.28% of the stock.

tylee81, I think the short seller will close their position long before the release of TG's quarterly results in March.

Anthem2, certainly right now would've been the best period for such a short attack. The only thing that disrupted the plans was MCO2.0

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-20 19:59 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,my grateful for ur answered,as I'm a newbie,i have one last question hope u can answer.
The amount of money use to share buy back is huge compare to the dividend payout,instate of using such a big lump sum to buy back will they rather folk out they own money as a dividend pay out to pay to the lender?

bullpiano

190 posts

Posted by bullpiano > 2021-01-20 22:37 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much for Bro. Ben Tan. Thanks for all the hard work.

4/Jan
TG Open RM:6.10 Close:RM5.50
Shortist had to spend RM573.22 mil with 106mil shares to bring down TG by RM0.60
Shortist average cost was RM5.40

Up to date, shorties had spend RM1.241 bil with average selling price of RM 5.247 ( not considering some position that had been closed)

Assuming that shortist TP is RM4.247 to make RM1.00 (19%) profit.
How many shares do they need to short in order to hit the TP?
By Bursa rule maximum Net Short Position is 4%
As on 18/Jan, TG Net Short Position 2.76%.
Room for shortist is 4% - 2.76% = 1.24% = 103 mil shares
But today (20/Jan) TG closing price is RM6.14, isn’t that shortist have very limited room to push down until hitting the TP price?
Do shortist have other strategy to press down the price?

bullpiano

190 posts

Posted by bullpiano > 2021-01-20 22:50 | Report Abuse

By calculating RSS data released by Bursa, below is the TG short sell that had been closed daily.


18/Jan -5000000
15/Jan 0
14/Jan -32300
13/Jan 0
12/Jan 0
11/Jan -3680900
8/Jan -29100
7/Jan -10900
6/Jan 0
5/Jan -12000
4/Jan -28000

Anthem2

305 posts

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-01-20 23:40 | Report Abuse

On the 18th TS Lim and his family bought 10 Lots each??? Anyone knows what gives? Some sort of warning?!

DickyMe

14,429 posts

Posted by DickyMe > 2021-01-20 23:40 | Report Abuse

Gloves not required, Ismail Sabri says..

lkoky

539 posts

Posted by lkoky > 2021-01-21 08:35 | Report Abuse

19 & 20 RSS is net buying

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-21 09:51 | Report Abuse

tylee81, if the short seller has to pay the dividend to the borrower of shares, that's pure loss. Currently they sit on massive paper losses, but these are still just paper losses.

bullpiano, the small figures for Jan 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, and most likely 14th, are not related to the big short. They are probably retail positions or other type of positions. As mentioned in the article, probably about RM3 million in value does not belong to the big short position, but to other small/retail short positions. However, yes, there has been some closing of short positions. The following are the amounts for each of the 4 counters:

19 January - 5,955,218 TG shares bought back
19 January - 1,000,000 Kossan shares bought back

18 January - 5,000,000 TG shares bought back
18 January - 3,000,000 Kossan shares bought back

15 January - 1,770,145 Kossan shares bought back

11 January - 3,680,900 TG shares bought back

No closing of short positions on Supermax or Harta has been observed so far.

Anthem2, the announcement say that the acquisitions are via "TS Dr Lim WC (L) Foundation", so I assume it's a sort of a foundation set up by LWC to reward the founders of the company. It's a really small amount (0.00001% of the company stock), so it's truly immaterial.

DickyMe, thank you for letting me know. This information is truly immaterial to the earnings potential of any of the big glove manufacturers.

lkoky, if the figures show net buying, this may still mean that some of the older short positions have been closed - as has been the case with Kossan last Friday, and this week on Monday and Tuesday so far (we have no up-to-date data for Wednesday).

bullpiano

190 posts

Posted by bullpiano > 2021-01-21 09:58 | Report Abuse

Ben Tan, noted. Thank for the sharing.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-21 09:58 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,i get ur note,once again I'm grateful for ur patient explanation,million tks.

Anthem2

305 posts

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-01-21 10:50 | Report Abuse

Tks Ben for pointing out that detail that was missed.

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-21 12:46 | Report Abuse

@Ben Tan, despite multiple local IBs giving glove companies good comments recently, price is still dropping, can clearly see someone manipulating the sell queue of topglove just now. Do you think the price will rebound at this rate?

SteadyT

318 posts

Posted by SteadyT > 2021-01-21 12:46 | Report Abuse

Feel like giving up already

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-21 13:51 | Report Abuse

SteadyT, basically these are rock bottom market valuations right now. As I've said elsewhere, the price can pretty much only go upwards from here. However, if it will happen tomorrow, next week, or next month, might be a bit harder to say.

What is certain is that the short selling pressure should be over by the beginning of February at which point the bigger part of the short position will have to be closed, which of itself will result in the prices going up.

goldenluck16

1,955 posts

Posted by goldenluck16 > 2021-01-21 17:38 | Report Abuse

Yes, @Ben Tan , I totally agree with your view.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-21 22:21 | Report Abuse

@ben tan,there is very important for the fund to support this sector either local or foreign,but currently it seems like lack of fund support,what is your view?

CJkenho

46 posts

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-01-21 23:01 | Report Abuse

@tylee81.. with you on that thought too. Seems to feel like our local IB is waiting & waiting for the foreign fund to flow in (to help) pump up the-usually-big primary wave 3. I believe it's all a matter of like "being in the sales biz". You want others to buy into your country's stocks, u've gotta make it so attractive & irresistible, like it is with all glove counters now (unlike 6 mths ago).

Unfortunately, all the IB's hardwork of 6mths retracement is put to jeopardy by our beloved politicians who just can't stop destroying our country's economy. If miraculously we could somehow discover the amount of foreign money that wanted to come in but reversed... we'll all be crying bucket loads.

tylee81

59 posts

Posted by tylee81 > 2021-01-21 23:44 | Report Abuse

@cjkenho,in such a bad economic sentiments only glove sectors manage to make a bombastic earnings and with an attractive DY paid out.furthermore currently there are big 3 listed on klse,which means that it is difficult for index to reached higher by yr end with the laggard of big3.with such an attractive and good conditions it is mpossible and no point for fund to ignore it,and v all knw that glove shortage might last till 22 or 23.hopefully @ben tan can give some of his view.

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-22 10:44 | Report Abuse

goldenluck16, tylee81, CJkenho, thank you once again for your comments.

tylee81 and CJkenho, my opinion is that like us, the local IBs are currently in a waiting position. They are waiting to see what the short seller is going to do next. On January 4, when the short seller unloaded the largest amount of sales, the prices plummeted. If such a thing happens again, that would be an incredible buy opportunity. Everyone likely has their guns loaded for when/if that happens.

ruby20

308 posts

Posted by ruby20 > 2021-01-23 13:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Ben Tan

456 posts

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-23 13:15 | Report Abuse

ruby20, thanks for sharing. Please see your private message here when you get the chance.

CJkenho

46 posts

Posted by CJkenho > 2021-01-26 20:46 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/insider/substantialShareholderNoticeOfInterest/7113/26-Jan-2021/13978_2666436078.jsp

@Ben Tan, so with this the shorties have closed at least half of their position by now? Coz total that was loan out was 40mil rite..?

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