Posted by lkoky > 2021-01-27 17:45 | Report Abuse

Excellent article!!!
The fact of the matter is, most western countries have totally lost control on the pandemics, and hence pin all their hope on vaccine!!

This is pandemics that requires multiple approaches to bring it under control. Vaccine alone isnt the solution, at best just one of the solutions.

Even with vaccinated, face mask n physical distant still have to be observe, as none of the vaccine producers proclaimed vaccinated adult wont transmit covid-19

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 19:20 | Report Abuse

Hi lkoky, thank you for your comment.

Yes, absolutely. My article was more focused on the timeline of the pandemic rather than on what we all need to do, but we certainly will need to wear masks and follow all the other precautions we have been following up to now, even after the vaccine is rolled out. This is the new normal.

Posted by LimitUp > 2021-01-27 20:20 | Report Abuse

Excellent article! Thank you Ben for putting it out clearly for all to understand that this pandemic will be around for another 3 to 4 years at the minimum as far us malaysia is concerned.

Posted by Anthem2 > 2021-01-27 20:30 | Report Abuse

@Ben Quick question- 36M SBL shares returned to EPF on the 22nd equates to more than the total number of shorts recovered the last 3 weeks! Has someone given up and left the party without actually shorting?

Posted by PunTatBerSiul > 2021-01-27 20:33 | Report Abuse

This means nothing!

Humans have forgotten how to survive and are now dependent on self-proclaimed experts, media and data. These are elements of the CORPORATE world to control the herd mindset.

The ulterior motive is to reap profit from fatalities, similar to vultures hovering over carcasses!

The only solution to this pandemic is to ignore it go about doing what we have been before the pandemic. If you are going to get sick and drop dead, it is god's will.
No man lives forever!

Posted by calvin69 > 2021-01-27 20:38 | Report Abuse

Buy gloves to hedge all round lah

Posted by katsul51 > 2021-01-27 20:55 | Report Abuse

Great article. Thank you for the information and data,

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-01-27 20:59 | Report Abuse

Ben, thanks for the time and effort you have spent in piecing this insightful and sobering article. Its sad that vaccines is just part of the equation in curbing this dreadful pandemic. WE have to live life and adjust to the new norm.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 21:37 | Report Abuse

LimitUp, Anthem2, PunTatBerSiul, calvin69, katsul51, Goldberg, thank you for your comments.

Anthem2, I suppose your question is related to the activity regarding Top Glove. I am doing some research right now and I hope to have something posted over the weekend. It is true that these shares have not been bought back.

PunTatBerSiul, unfortunately, as someone whose whole family went through COVID, with serious implications, I must strongly disagree with you. I urge you to not try your luck with the disease.

Goldberg, unfortunately the vaccine is indeed not an all-around solution for the reasons mentioned in the article (and others not mentioned due to lack of time). We still need to follow all of the safety procedures - wearing masks, washing hands as frequently as possible, and keeping our social distance from people outside of our household. Fortunately, the climate of Malaysia allows us to ventilate our homes properly and to potentially go out and breathe fresh air frequently.

Posted by leeruzi7 > 2021-01-27 21:48 | Report Abuse

oh malaysia mco policies flip flop ..suppose to be strict policies loosen too earlier ..that why cases increase dramatically.. look like it we have to rely on your own perhaps looking on natural remedies instead to increase immunity. There is study about using honey and nigella for covid treatment . I'm no expert on medical field so I leave link below for interested party

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOwa6-EOohI

Posted by darksith > 2021-01-27 22:52 | Report Abuse

Very informative article. I learned something new, low dead space syringe. Thank you very much for your efforts.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 23:09 | Report Abuse

leeruzi7, darksith, Tobby, thank you for your comments.

leeruzi7, there are a number of experimental medications right now. Let's hope that something scientifically proven will work out, at least for the more severe cases.

Tobby, yes, Israel is ahead of everyone, but no - they have not vaccinated 100% of their population, as you would have learned if you had read the article. Regarding the side effects, it was predictable beforehand that the world will focus on them. However, safety of the vaccines is only a problem as far as intent to vaccinate is concerned. The much bigger and more serious problems are related to the efficacy of the vaccines and the logistics related to their distribution.

Posted by icecool > 2021-01-27 23:18 | Report Abuse

wonder how long will it takes for the human cattle population to comprehend this
" Number of cases are not important data. Number of deaths are the concern. All kinds of fatalities could be lumped as Covid-19. That's bullshit reporting. " ???

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 23:22 | Report Abuse

icecool, thank you for your comment.

The comment from DickyMe you are quoting is inaccurate. The terminology of COVID-related deaths was specifically changed in order to reflect that the death cases reported are not necessarily caused by COVID itself (they rarely are), but that the deceased has been COVID positive at time of death.

Posted by emsvsi > 2021-01-27 23:22 | Report Abuse

Pfizer-BioNTech has increased production to 2 bil Moderna min 600mil to 1bil
Don't spread fake news.
Sobering 'fact' and what you choose to only see are two different things

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-01-27 23:25 | Report Abuse

Hi Ben, here is an interesting article.

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/davos-2021-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-covid-19-vaccine-mutations-pfizer-145820700.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAT5YkYvwLK_UA5wYNFFSTFVQwgkKaxmDpNzYAWNicBZgmXnuEV5d8YNtl5M5Gv8w8MWN2X6CTSxVQEp_bG4eCyt4YbaOWL1O0zRO96_0nhH1JvD6gQvbhVBHxi5niIPFgd1Rrj_u1xtR7LxFi2sKQ9-n6eLGUM4V4LXCbRiCbTz

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 23:33 | Report Abuse

emsvsi, thank you for your comment.

Everything in the article is based on referenced sources, so kindly avoid accusations. I edited the article to reflect more precisely the information in case readers do not check the linked sources. Pfizer have tracked down contracts for the delivery of 836 million doses, and Moderna - for 461 million doses according to Bloomberg.

It would be truly incredible for the entire world if the two companies could indeed increase their production capacity, and if they could contract this additional capacity out to as many countries as possible, although even with the numbers you quote the best case scenario would be vaccines sufficient for 1.5 billion people within 2021 (a little less than 20% of the world population).

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-27 23:37 | Report Abuse

Goldberg, thank you very much for sharing this article.

The most interesting thing in it is the following:

"Israel struck a deal with Pfizer (PFE) for future supply of its COVID-19 vaccine in exchange for anonymised data on Israeli’s health."

This answers the question many have been having on why Israel has access to such significant quantities of the vaccine so early on.

Posted by gloves63 > 2021-01-27 23:44 | Report Abuse

@bentan what about us? I heard they are expecting to vaccinate the whole country by q3 2021

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-01-28 00:12 | Report Abuse

Another interesting article Ben.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccines-versus-variants-israels-exit-150603838.html

Posted by PunTatBerSiul > 2021-01-28 00:42 | Report Abuse

"Ben Tan icecool, thank you for your comment.

..... but that the deceased has been COVID positive at time of death.
27/01/2021 11:22 PM"

What caused the death? The mere presence of Covid virus after death is a convenient way of avoiding detailed analysis for medical practitioners and the virus an easy scapegoat.

WHO, medical science and governments are overreacting to this pandemic.
It should be treated just like another disease and allow people to lead their life normally.

Si lly SOPs like wearing masks, distancing, hiding under the bed, military tanks are cowa rds approach in tackling the pandemic.

One should hold the menace by it's horn.

Sentimental argument like "..what if you or your family were to contract.." does nothing but attract pity. The reality is DEATH is CERTAIN and it comes anytime uninformed in many ways.

Posted by PunTatBerSiul > 2021-01-28 00:49 | Report Abuse

I thank the lord for sending us this pandemic.

Posted by Goldberg > 2021-01-28 09:17 | Report Abuse

Correct Ben, vaccine rollout seem to be a big problem in this raging pandemic. Wall Street is acknowledging this fact where DJ index and Nasdaq took beating yesterday as they believe economic recovery will be severly impacted.

Stocks Drop on Concerns About Vaccine Rollout
-----------------------------------------------
Major stock indexes suffered their sharpest one-day losses since October amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution, while traders were also captivated by the frenzied trading in GameStop and other heavily shorted stocks.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-28 10:12 | Report Abuse

gloves63, thank you for your comment. According to Noor Hisham's comment from a few days ago, Malaysia's plan is to complete the vaccination program either by the end of 2021, or by early 2022 (see: https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/25/dr-noor-hisham-covid-19-vaccination-programme-expected-to-be-completed-end/1943932). Previously Khairy said that "if you are a healthy adult under 60 and not a frontline worker, it is safe to assume that your turn will come by Q3 or after." (see: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/khairy-explains-malaysias-vaccine-procurement-process-delivery-schedule). However, unless the government manages to procure more vaccines than it currently has announced, faster than announced, that might be a difficult task. In any case, Malaysia is relatively well-positions in terms of vaccine availability in comparison to many other countries around the world.

Here are the known timelines and contracts (let me know if I have missed anything):

- 12.8 million doses from Pfizer, with the following schedule: 1 million in Q1 2021, 1.7 million in Q2 2021, 5.8 million in Q3 2021, and 4.3 million in Q4 2021.

- 6.4 million doses of Gamaleya, starting from March (no specifics on the size of each batch)

- 12 million doses of Sinovac, starting from April (no specifics on the size of each batch)

- 6.4 million doses from AstraZeneca, starting from the second quarter of 2021 (no specifics on the size of each batch)

- 6.4 million doses from COVAX (no dates or specifics)

TOTAL confirmed up to now: 44 million doses (22 million people, or 68.75% of the population)

- 3.5 million doses from CanSino Biologics, ongoing negotiations (this is a 1-dose vaccine, so it will cover additional 3.5 million people, or 11% of the population)

- Negotiations with Moderna and Johnson & Johnson ongoing

If all of the deals go through, Malaysia will have vaccines sufficient for 80% of its population. The questions remaining are on:

- Schedule of the deliveries;

- Efficacy of some of the vaccines (note that for instance there are some significant concerns with the data released by Gamaleya).

Overall, I am hopeful that what Noor Hisham says is true, but based on the current situation, it seems like a really optimistic prognosis, and this is reflected in the EIU report and expected schedule I shared in the article.

Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-24/southeast-asia-covid-19-vaccine-tracker-who-will-get-what-when
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-malaysia-vaccines/malaysia-secures-184-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covid-19-vaccines-idUSKBN29V11H
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2021/01/26/health-ministry-malaysia-secures-18.4-million-doses-of-russian-chinese-covi/1944232
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/22/malaysia-procures-6point4-million-doses-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html
https://codeblue.galencentre.org/2020/12/23/malaysia-reserves-option-to-double-pfizer-vaccine-order/

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-28 10:16 | Report Abuse

Goldberg, thank you very much once again for sharing this data.

It will indeed be a battle, and I believe eventually countries will start closing their borders, and imposing restrictions similar to the ones in Malaysia. In fact, just yesterday the UK announced such new restrictions. I expect other European countries to follow. The more the new variants spread, i.e. the more people travel around, the lower the effect of the vaccination campaign would be.

Posted by stockraider > 2021-01-28 11:17 | Report Abuse

Just learn to live with the virus mah!

Why panic leh ??

Do not do drastic thing like total lockdown, when Vaccines inoculation are just around the corner mah!

All these people who argue total lockdown, they are usually govt servants, University lecturers and retirees who do not care of other people livehoods loh !!

Think lah....Do not be silly Mah!

NO TOTAL LOCKDOWN LOH!

Posted by stockraider > 2021-01-28 11:20 | Report Abuse

Vaccine are here for sure mah....!!

Now even India has their own home made vaccine loh!

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-28 11:23 | Report Abuse

stockraider, thank you for your comments (copied from and to a handful of other places for good measure). Clearly you haven't read the article beyond the first paragraph.

In any case, no matter if there will be a total lockdown or not, the situation remains as it is projected to be. A total lockdown can get us closer to normalcy (RMCO level) faster, no total lockdown will mean a longer period of time in a no-interstate travel environment.

Posted by PunTatBerSiul > 2021-01-28 11:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2021-01-28 12:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by icecool > 2021-01-28 14:05 | Report Abuse

how do you expect lockdown will return us to normalcy when the actual virus was never even isolated all the result and actions and madness were based on this PCR test in which doesn't even isolate the virus and only test for the present of genetic material, not to mention the 50 times amplification used in these test, which is just bullshit testing.

Posted by gloves63 > 2021-01-28 17:07 | Report Abuse

@bentan i am not referring to us, i mean United States. I heard with biden plan were talking about vaccinating whole country by 2021 Q3. What are ur insights on this?

Posted by cpchuan > 2021-01-28 18:23 | Report Abuse

Hi Ben Tan, EPF announced acquiring top glove shares 19,459,200 on 21-1 and 36,051,480 on 22-1. Both are SBL, which means these are the shares returned by borrower. But, based on net short position from 21-1 onwards, the net short kept going up and hit 2.92%, which is at record high. How come the net short didn't go down? I assume the borrower bought 19,459,200 and 36,051,480 shares and returned them to EPF.

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-28 19:31 | Report Abuse

cpchuan, thank you for your comment.

Yes, please check my recently posted article here: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-01-28-story-h1540191595-Has_the_Short_Seller_Closed_the_Big_Gloves_Short.jsp

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-01-28 21:55 | Report Abuse

gloves63, sorry, missed responding.

The US *may* be able to inoculate enough of their population by the end of Q3 2021, yes. However, a number of things need to go right for this to happen and to have a meaningful impact:

- Vaccine production
- Vaccine logistics
- Willingness of people to vaccinate
- Virus mutations

Posted by lavenderguy > 2021-01-30 15:36 | Report Abuse

thumbs up Ben! till now we still do not know how effective the vaccine against the S.African and Brazil variants....
i think SOP is the key lo...and that involves PPE.Human just can't eradicate virus, in history of mankind only 1 virus has been eradicated.
total lock down can control the surging amount of cases which clearly our nation needs it but cannot do it for long term as this will kill the economy but then we already wasted 2 weeks of MCO 2.0(half baked MCO)
so, I think the worse is yet to come...

Posted by la huat > 2021-01-30 19:12 | Report Abuse

PunTatBerSiul I thank the lord for sending us this pandemic.
28/01/2021 12:49 AM

you got lord kah ....i think no loh......

Posted by PunTatBerSiul > 2021-01-30 19:19 | Report Abuse

ada la...buat apa heboh2..kikikiki

Posted by MuttsInvestor > 2021-02-01 17:55 | Report Abuse

Singapore HAS started Vaccination on 15Jan 2021. Thailand ? Indonesia ? Philipines ? Vietnam ? Cambodia ? Malaysia ?

Posted by Ben Tan > 2021-02-02 13:09 | Report Abuse

lavenderguy, la huat, MuttsInvestor, thank you for your comments.

lavenderguy, we finally got a confirmation on that at the end of last week. Both Novavax's vaccine and Johnson & Johnson's vaccine were shown to be less efficient against the South African variant as compared to both the "old" variant and the UK variant. It is to be expected that similar results will be shown with other vaccines. Additionally, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine performed worse in South America, where the Brazil variant is likely spreading, in line with the results reported earlier by Sinovac.

MuttsInvestor, unfortunately Singapore has the very significant advantage of deeper pockets. The price per dose Singapore has secured their vaccines at, is significantly higher than the price paid by anyone else in the region, and likely only very few other countries in the world have paid prices higher than those paid by Singapore. Thus, we cannot draw a direct comparison this way. For instance, neither Japan, nor Australia, nor Korea, have started their vaccination campaigns yet.

Posted by pBlue > 2021-02-06 23:57 | Report Abuse

I would add, the sinovac vaccine also performed poorly in Brazil 50.4% efficacy (where the P1 Brazilian variant has its home). Sinovac vaccine did much better in UAE 86% .

There is data from Pfizer and Moderna... antibodies raised from their vaccine have >10 fold lower binding affinity to covid spike protein containing all the mutations found within the Spike protein of the S.African variant. How much of a reduction in protection this translates too is unknown but at a guess it is significant.

The problem with 50% efficacy... is that the virus will not be stoped by the vaccine alone. Additional measure must be taken.

Posted by Targeted > 2021-02-10 11:56 | Report Abuse

Good article Ben.

Seems like its gona be a long battle.......longer that market generally expects.......

Posted by Stonecold > 2021-02-10 13:22 | Report Abuse

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