Wah, very good harvest oh. Looks like Tanarata estate has started to contribute significantly.

I want to grab more return, so I decided to take some calculated risk to do "forward investment", trying to act ahead of changes.

Looking at long-term irreversible factors, I think CPO price cycle and range has already entered a new normal. So does other agricultural commodities, including eggs, poultry and so on.

So adversed weather coupled with low production season plus peak consumption season in China (CNY), muslim countries, the price will quickly u-turn. That's why the CPO remains strong at above 3,700 / MT.

Sumatra and Southern Kalimantan received a lot less rainfall this year, 200ml less than before, correct me if I'm wrong. The effect will reveal in less than 6 months time.

Stock is temporarily high because the peak production season has just over. We are now entering low season in Q1 2024. Buyer will aware of this and whoever buy first bulk volume would be able to get the best price. The 2nd buyer will have to pay more.

Wonderful business at fair price.

I think current price 16.50 is still attractive with all the calculated risks. So I added some.

May I know if any of you have a small oil palm estate?

RM 1.50? That's a lot of people might think. But I don't think this is a serious answer.

Ooihk899, how much do you expect?

I dropped you a Christmas card. Search your mailbox.

Hi Lionel, I shifted my focus and got too immersed in UP.

I agree that we shouldn't trade too often.

Most of my work is done but I think this is a good time to observe, study and research. Both fundamental and technical analysis. Just like AI, we need to "see" more to upgrade our skills. I don't restrict myself on just fundamental or technical because knowing all help creating a more prudent strategy. Trading skill is also important as I need it sometime to re-allocate capital according to my fundamental analysis.

Hi Ahlian, thanks. I didn't worry. But I discovered there were moments I couldn't see things clearly when over excited. Being prudent is an important skill often ignored. Lionel's words came to my mind yesterday 12 a.m. I think to be prudent we must first be humble in exchanging and evaluating opinion. This attitude helps a lot.

First I thought wow, yesterday closing. After that I understand that wasn't "real". Time to rest for a while.

I think the best thing to do tomorrow is to wake up late, turn off computer, and go eat breakfast, slowly.

Just be really really careful... if you really understand what I mean...

KClow has a good nose for windfall profit.

paid off...

Unbelievable

I said it will move up very quickly. I knew it. Just didn't expect it to be so soon.

Ahlian, thanks for your encouragement.

@moven00, after these few days I am one of those uncles now. 😆 I had never thought of becoming one this year! I broke almost all my important investment rules when I place my bet on UTDPLT. I wouldn't ask anyone to do that but I did it. It is an important decision but it is also insane.

Hi moven00, thanks for the info. Appreciate.
Hi JrWarren, good suggestion.

Hi, anyone attended the AGM before? Could you recommend any hotel to stay? Thanks.

Because there are large capital held to "wait" for the price to come down, if the price does not come down quickly, they are not going to wait for too long. Many bought recently not just because of the dividend, but they don't want to miss the chance to own shares, therefore there, after 2 weeks when the dividend is received there will be another wave of buying / reinvestment. Those who strategize to buy ex-date sure aware of this so they won't wait until 2 weeks to act.

The implication is the stock price will be less volatile. As you can see shareholding of EPF reduced from 35 mil shares last year till around 13-14 mil shares today, almost 20 mil shares sold but the price only drops from the peak of 17.55 to 16.72. Which means that there are strong demand for its shares. As the price goes lower this demand will only be higher. The shareholder profile for this stock is also different from other "cheaper" stocks. In fact there are many institute shareholders among the top 30. I am very sure institute like life insurance companies have thick interests on this kind of stock. When price goes down a lot of volume but when price goes up very little volume. This means other than EPF is motivated to sell, others are not willing to sell. As the supply of shares become less, price will be easier to go up in future, assuming fundamentals do not change.

Ya dam82, when there is no diversed opinion then there will be no trading / transaction. This could be a good opportunity.

Afterall, they are in "pertanian" sector. They tend to stick to agricultural investment for this is their circle of competency. And there is not many agricultural investment choices in Perak.

Ya. But they sell a lot less... they are just doing very limited profit taking. Obviously, they don't want to totally let go this fixed income asset. You can assume them to be much less agressive than EPF. These assets are vital blood flow to them to fund their activities. Unlike EPF is able to get continuous cash contribution from the employees, PPPNP doesn't have this. So they bound to be a lot more conservative.

The sell down started close to the release date of this report. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. But I believe EPF's decision must go through procedures that allow only rationale purchase and selling, especially for high value transactions.

At the same time Fitch gave CPO poor rating, RM 3,000 / MT. That could put some weight on EPF's decision too.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/palm-oil-prices-to-weaken-in-2024-on-higher-output-20-11-2023

Although for us it is hard to believe and agree to that price of RM 3,000 /MT in 2024.

It is a very safe, high chances of success kind of investment.

I guess is fixed deposits in US. And also 5y and 10y US treasury bonds. When FED cut interest rate next year, bonds easily gain double digit returns.

I think not much left to sell... obviously they planned to sell before the ex-date, not after. Even if they continue to sell some after ex-date, that would be negligible compares to before ex-date. Their plan is becoming clearer.

Don't think they are going to sell all...

The pool must be big, return must be attractive and at the same time safe enough.

Guess what attracted EPF fund to go somewhere else?

At current price, 80% of chances are, you'll be smiling for at least 3 years.

Don't over stress yourself. Don't be like the greedy snake want to swallow the elephant. Measure your stomach and just take the portion that you feel comfortable with.

Assuming price does not change, buying at tomorrow your cost will be lower.

Now you can top up at 16.80 if you want. 😁 Keep some money for your lunch and dinner.

Aiseh... you miss the chance to sell at RM 19.98 to him.

Up 30 sen Mr. 20 ringgit pop up again. 🤣

I full until want to vomit already.

You not eat full ah 😁

Or maybe EPF close the tab aready, boss balik marah sebab selling durian cheap cheap when the boss was not around. 🤣

They are trying to find out what you think and then do the opposite. 😆