Hi Lionel, nothing to do with confidence. No money, have to save first ><.

Not sure about others. But I'll tambah if dividend increases.

People will choose smaller home with better renovation due to smaller family size and higher standard of living.

As for building material sector, tile manufacturing will boom because Malaysian popular has started to age. New property development will slow down. People tend to buy 2nd-hand houses at good location and renovate it with new tiles. This will happen at both cities and suburban areas. Retirees will move from cities to suburban areas and many will do renovation before they move in.

The biggest problem in Malaysia is B40 income could not catchup with inflation. They have no money to buy EV. Therefore, motorbikes that consume petrol (the fuel that could only be cheaper in future) will still be popular for decades. This is especially true for rural and suburban areas where charging station would be impractical and unprofitable.

Ya right, lionel messi. Peace of mind is precious. Must be careful, recently lots of scam salesman / promoter.

My advice is, don't put too much money in this stock because it is boring. You will have better patience if you have only invested a small fraction in this stock.

Patience is the key.

It has been a boring 6-7% dividend yield stock. Set apart of your boring money to own this boring stock. But I think it might fetch extra excitement for current FY and the next to come. If dividend could increase to 60 sen or more then the price will be adjusted to RM 10.

Also, if I have been already very old, and I have more than enough money, I just want to be happy. Making people whom I want to thank to be happy will then be my ultimate happiness and I certainly would not want to miss the opportunity of doing this great things while I am still alive and awake.

That's because:

i) HLIND is likely to make record FY profit
ii) overall environment for motorcycle and tiles are improving, where raw material costs are declining and become a lot more stable while demand remains solid, this spells good and widening profit margin

When business is matured, profit is improving and has become more predictable, that's when dividend get thickened.

If I were the billionaire who has lots of business, I will demand the matured business to continue create and submit cash so that I could allocate it on "more interesting business / investment". There will be too much restriction to how I could use the money if it remains in the public listed company compares to my private money. The most profitable business are usually not listed. And it is good to use private money to buy those business instead of going through HLIND where the profit will have to be shared with public shareholders.

I feel that eventually the dividend per share will increase to 60 sen per annum soon, or maybe more.

Next Q EPS will be 25 sen

Yamaha already launched ebike in Vietnam. The same ebike can be launched in Malaysia anytime. Same design, just copy and paste here. Just waiting for the right time to replicate the same in Malaysia market. The right time will be when there is a regulation push from Malaysia Government. But I expect this will kick-in rather slowly because it may not be a popular policy and may affect the votes. Should there be an enforcement to use ebike, this will be a GREAT news to Yamaha because it will boost sales order.

Would it be one day HLIND sell both Guocera and Hong Leong Yamaha so that the value of these two can be unlocked and distribute the cash to all the shareholders? Now it is actively liquidifying those subsidiaries that are not making profit.

But for cement factory... coal price has reduce tremendously while cement price has increased a lot. I think it will turnaround this year and make big profit and that's why it could be sold at RM 20 mil premium to its assets.

His birthday on 8th December

Last time Tasek paid out a lot of dividend. Why is it not possible that one day or this year HLIND will pay out large sum of dividend? Just don't know when it will start. Maybe it will happen at a time when least people expect it to come.

TabulaRasa, you really dig in to study... purchase SSM somemore. I purchased that one for Guocera. :) Thanks for the sharing. I think Mr. Quek did not forget this counter lah. If he's just interested to keep the money in HLB he won't purchase the HLIND at this time, I think so. Maybe he wants to tell us "Hey, don't sell now. I'll reward you. Give me some time. Be patient." Haha

Hi Unicornbird, you can use CPO export duty table as a hint.

Hope he will offer a reasonable and fair price, such as RM 13 ~ 15.

There is one more thing he could do with the cash ---- privatise HLIND

Hi Observatory, the controlling shareholder could just park the cash in US's bank to get 5% interest rate. Like this he can increase both the return and cash flow.

Hope to receive 25 sen capital repayment.

iv) parking space are limited, and is difficult to accomodate more and more cars, so that's another reason for more usage of motorcycles

Why I believe the motorcycle market in Malaysia will remain strong in 2023:
i) the approval of additional 500,000 foreign worker to work in Malaysia in 2023
ii) FDI - new setup of factories lots of factories move out from China and relocate in SEA due to US-China trade war, this will provide more jobs and that's one of the reasons why unemployment rate in Malaysia remains low despite all the headwinds. These factories usually pay decent salary and premium branded motorcycles will be very affordable for them.
iii) Congestion in big cities in Malaysia such as KL, JB etc are getting more serious than pre-Covid time. Motorcycles will help the well paid employees to arrive at work destination faster.

Hi HamburgerOS, 2 reasons, perhaps:
i) Motorcycle sales of Malaysia decline in Apr. But that should be normal as normally sales decline in the month when people celebrate Aidilfitri. Why? Because supply is usually limited in that month due to less production day in the factory. Another reason is a lot of people need to reserve their money to celebrate the festival. Therefore sales usually bounce back after that month but investors would like to wait to verify that there is no exception for this year as there are lots of headwinds this year due to inflation and rising interest rate, recession in US or EU etc.
ii) Many may not feel comfortable of large investment in tile manufacturing industry because they believe high interest rate will slow down property market which in turn will dent the demand for tiles.
Therefore, I think it takes two stages for the share price to grow from now. First stage will be achieved after resillient demand on motorcycles starts from May is observed. 2nd stage is when the tile manufacturing shows very positive contribution starts from 2025 when the new plant is completed.
However, it may be a lot simpler than it sounds. As long as the EPS could achieve close to RM 1, or close to 25 sen per quarter, then I think the share price will quickly reach somewhere close to RM 10. I think that's not too difficult to achieve because the actual earning in Q1 is already close to 25 sen excluding the impairment due to demolish of old tile plant building. Plastic and aluminum price (the main raw material for motorcycle) are already peaked and become less expensive in Q2 and this trend is likely to continue because crude oil and natural gas are both in down trend. What do you think?

Hi Alexnada, Guoco and Guocera linked to the same big boss, Mr. Quek. If I were the big boss, I will have 2 considerations here:
1. buy the tiles of the same quality at best price
2. buy from related company otherwise I'll be feeding competitors to fight against Guocera which I have substantial interest
So what would I do? Take the opportunity to upgrade Guocera so that it could produce higher quality tiles at lower cost. This will benefit Guoco land to get excellent tiles with reasonable price, at the same time provide return for investment to Guocera. If Guocera could not provide good quality tile at competitive price, then I will not spend 400 mil in Guocera, instead I'll slowly give up this business and get the tile supply from White Horse, Niro, etc. Make sense?

Next Q earning 31.9 sen excluding hedging loss/gain. If include hedging loss/gain will be better than 31.9 sen. Continue to see unusual large profit from refinery sector.

By 2024 Ukraine war should have ended and will be a tile magnet at that time. This will cause Europe's tile price to increase and Malaysia's tile to gain pricing power in 2024. Although new house build is slowing down, most of the consumption in recent years are actually from renovation of existing buildings. Therefore the slow down in construction does not mean total demand for tiles is shrinking.

Total floor area 450,000 sqf. Assuming tile-able wall to floor ratio is 4:1, then
Total tile value = 450,000 * (4+1) * 7 *3.3 = RM 51,975,000 which is 2.1% revenue of HLIND or 21% revenue of Guocera in year 2022.
Assumptions:
1) Unit tile value = SGD 7 / sqf
2) SGD exchange rate 3.3
If more luxurious tiles are used then it could reach 30% of Guocera's revenue in 2022.

10% is conservative estimation. I think more expensive tiles will be used because the value of the building is already above 2k SGD psf.

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/bugis-enters-new-chapter-ongoing-rejuvenation
I think this complex will consume 10% output from Guocera after the new plant has completed.

Hi Observatory, well said. Just learned something from you that some stocks in Bursa are approved for short selling. Is there any website / source that I could refer to learn short selling in Bursa? Thanks.

These are all my questions waiting for more brilliant kaki to analyse and share. I'm not smart enough.

And I think he did it this way is like slapping Mr. S on his face because he will definitely face lots of questions in the AGM 2 days later. Who can tolerate this?

Wkchia, that person must have less than 3.5 mil shares to sell. You think who's that person?

Hi wkchia71, did all members resign? But I suspect insider sold shares before announcement. And that person must go if discovered. But I don't know who's that person.

Monetary, everything is projection. What u hold now is also based on someone's projection or your own projection, from the result in the past or information collected, to be fair.

These customers' report help you to understand what the acting chairman said in the AGM. If you pay attention you catch the info.

Take from Yamaha FY2023.3 report's Q&A:

"We also see that sales of guitars can grow. In North America, sales of wind instruments grew substantially in the previous fiscal year..." "In our view, we will be able to sustain strong sales, as the market inventories of entry-level digital musical instruments and guitars become more appropriate. We also expect supply of audio equipment to recover as the semiconductor procurement difficulties are being removed, and we anticipate growth in both regions (North America & Europe)."

In above statement "the market inventories become more appropriate" means dealer's stock has reduced, and therefore Yamaha could replenish order from supplier. You can see accelerated guitar catalyst order starts from Mar this year. Don't just focus on number of shipment but take note the weight of the shipment. The inventory problem that Mr. Shih mentioned in AGM refers to customers' dealer stock in case you don't undertand. It is not referring to FPI's inventory. Yamaha contribute slightly below 10% of FPI revenue and is growing.

Reference: https://www.yamaha.com/en/ir/presentations/qa_202305/

Turn to page 11. "Expect to return to the normal growth trajectory in 2H of 2023 onward". Due to covid new product release was impacted. New product / game changer product release will be accelerated (page 17).

More than half of revenue of FPI comes from Roland. Ignore the temporary set back. New release of Roland's plan here. Check it out: https://ir.roland.com/en/ir/news/news-9042757612983161037/main/0/link/2023-2025MTP%20(EN).pdf

If can get at that price I also want to spend my other 2 bullets oh.

The price should be normal quarter EPS x historical average PE. In this case we should not take unusually low or high quarter. Being conservative you can take rolling 4 quarter ahead. Q2 revenue will be higher than Q1 because of stronger USD and weaker plastic resin price and given more time for US customers to normalise their stock level. Receivables in Q1 are in USD will be appreciated as well and appear as forex gain in Q2. Large part of short-term fund are held in the form of USD will be a gain too. The interest income will increase as well for both cash in USD and in RM because of interest hike. Beside that FPI will also receive rental income from Roland. Therefore EPS will be Q3 & Q4 greater than Q2, while Q2 EPS will be greater than Q1. This should be generally right. It is impossible to project very accurately but I think 20 sen per share for FY2023 is a reasonable estimation. And I guess that's the reason only 21 sen dividend was declared for FY2022 because this is the sustainable amount.

And ya, if you run out of patience you can submit your shares at 2.35. I think FPI is happy to buy back.

To understand more about the pace of customer placing order, read Roland's, Yamaha's, and Sony's report, their explanation on inventory management, sales forecast, trade payables to suppliers etc.

Please take note of increasing large shipment to Yamaha guitar starts from Mar this year. It is 2x the normal month order. Yamaha was the 4th largest customer placing order slightly less than Wistron. It will appear as 3rd largest customer this year I think. As for Wistron project, there is a close work with Wistron to win more project as disclosed in the AGM. That's the reason why 10-20 mil capex is allocated to put focus on enhancing the plastic injection.

I encourage you all to attend next time and take your note... while some answers can be standard these are still important for you to know... have a nice weekend.

Mr. On X Hau asked about how long the current economy impact is going to last on FPI and weather or not the worst has passed. The answer given was "my answer is... it depends on market conditions that is still evolving... at the moment we still seeing headwinds from inflation and interest rate hike." After pausing for 3 sec he continues "we can see a slow recovery from the 2nd half of the year." It was a spot question, it was not projected on the screen. This happened about 36 minutes after meeting has started. I think this is one of the most important info in the AGM.