OEM is highly competitive and thin margin business model. The factory wont just keep 2600 workers to sit there drawing salary. With 2600 workers in the factory and improved automation, the productivity should be more or less the same as the total achievement in last year. Why would the boss keep the operators if there is no order?

Hi WkChia, this is my understanding on 2022 Q4 revenue down: Customers found that Q3 sales slowed down and too much stock to sell. Feared of over stocking, they put less order in Q4. So this is just to prevent storing too much old model. Whereas in 2023 Q1, they should have already order new models to compete with competitors. So Q1 sales will be normalised. This year shipping cost is a lot more reasonable and stable. It will be easier to plan production and shipment so a more flat delivery traffic can be expected compares to last year and so does the revenue.

Before that I suspect FPI no longer get Sonos order but I think I guessed wrongly. This is the more likely to be true: FPI is still getting Sonos order through Wistron through it has declined compare to 2021 but the order awarded could have been stable. Wistron is supporting in electronics and software while FPI is doing other hardware and assembly work I guess. Revenue contribution from Wistron in 2023 Q1 could be the same or slighly less than 2022 Q4. Expecting 7 sen EPS in Q1 as no more forex loss (forex had been stable in 2023 Q1) is expected.

Hi WkChia I think it is because demand slows down. But will pickup in Q2 or Q3. Q3 last year was extraordinary. Normalised sale is 200-250 mil every quarter.

Sorry, RM 249 mil

Hi Harison888, not 80 cent but around RM 1.03 but that was many years back. Anyway, revenue of 2023 Q1 will be around RM 211 mil.

Economy at Kunshan is bad. But I think that subsidiary is related to I-phone. But FPI is not involved in I-phone.

I believ it is due to bad news of another subsidiary of Wistron, not related to FPI.

Minor amendment in bracket. Someone mentioned the production cost / MT of CPO in the AGM. I have special feeling towards this question because I did spend a lot of time to do the cost analysis. If you are the one who raised the question and is reading this, I'd like to share with you my understanding on that. Assuming that labour salary, fertiliser, chemical and fuel cost (price) are flat throughout the year, then production cost / MT CPO will be highest in the quarter that produce the least CPO. This is because some of these costs and other costs are fixed cost, and are therefore cannot be divided evenly to CPO produced throughout the year.

Hi 3i, albeit a cyclical stock, there is a new baseline for CPO price. Eventhough fetiliser price is in the down trend but it is almost impossible for plantation worker salary to go down (unless hit by a big recession). Therefore the new baseline of CPO price would not be that low as we have seen in 2010s. At current economy outlook, there are not many better options than RM 15.80 / share UTDPLT. 7% to 8% dividend yield with very solid balance sheet and a management who is generous, kind and diligent... maybe you'd feel it more attractive than your small business if you have one. As I read through the AGM minutes, I feel the sincerity of management in responding to minor shareholders' interest.

Serious rainfall in Feb and Mar, extreme heat in Apr and May and many months to come... I think CPO output in Malaysia for 2023 will be reduced instead of increase 2% as predicted by many analysts... The production forecast might no longer valid. Inventories will continue to go down due to poor harvest. El Nino normally lasts 2 years or longer. So I think there will be shortage by end of this year.

Price is heading south on the fear of El Nino hurts crop yield

Although reported only 21 sen EPS, the actual EPS is 24.8 sen if we exclude the "demolition of useless assets of the old tile factory appeared to be 12 million on the book". Remembered I told ya one month ago they had demolished the Guocera old tile factory? Current share price is supported by sustainable and conservative dividend payout at 6% dividend yield. 2x FD rate with a very solid state of balance sheet. Not very exciting but something you could rate it as a "bond share" and especially good for people with very large capital to invest where capital safety is first with very reasonable return.

Next Q EPS 6.2 sen to 8 sen. More likely to be around 7 to 8 sen.

Good quarter result and whole year result soon to be announced. Hope to get historical high of final and special dividend.

It is very understandable if 2023 achieve slightly less than 2021 and 2022, say 10% less revenue and profit. This is because 2021 and 2022 were an unacceptional years with lots of one-off events. A performance that is 10% or even 15% less would be still an excellent result.

It could also be partially due to more expensive finance cost to hold the shares as BNM had just raised interest rate few days ago.

The very recent sell down especially yesterday is not likely from "early informed", unlike what was suspected before the announcement of Q4 result. This is because they would have already jumped off the boat long before and don't have to wait until now. More likey this time it is caused by "scared uninformed" and those who excercised share options but somehow failed to sell at good prices.

Hi Dhando, did you use the paid service?
Your 2022 Q1-Q4 EPS interpretation is about the same as mine. Unfortunately your averge price is higher.

Hi Vincent8864, to be conservative, just assume 21 sen.

Hi Dhando, after looking at the US import data, what are the good insight that you could draw from there? I'm not lazy to look at it myself but just want to know how other great minds think.

After asking yourself these questions and looking back at yourself, you'll understand yourself better.

If you have been watching this stock... and following this blog... and you think this stock is good... and you had the intention to buy... I don't know what are you waiting for...

Price too attractive today. Stop thinking about how good this stock is or you as a fundamental investor if you don't buy some at this price and but bought at price a lot higher before this. W.B. said if you are not going to buy more when the price drops heftily then don't buy it at all in the beginning.

The best timing to buy throughout the year. Isn't it? Very reasonable price just before the announcement of near record high quarter and annual result.

Had been difficult to collect ticket. No seller below 9.20. :)

Bullish. Price is heading towards RM 17.00.

1) How much EPS you think FPI will deliver for 2023 Q1?
2) How much EPS for 2023 Q1 would be enough to satisfy your expectation?
I will update and share my view by next Friday, if I do not forget. :)

Long-term investors have good patience and do not act and talk like a scumbag. Judge yourself.

Those who have guts to hold long-long are those who are not emotional. Those who give emotional statement and labeling themselves as long-term investors are pure liars.

The one dreaming himself 899. People with temperament like him won't be able to 899. The real conman is very mad when people contradict with him warning all bilis don't over take the risk to chase high destroyed his chance to sell at high. He is disappointed because has to hold99 instead of 899. "wakakakaka".

A lot of small business in US and Europe bankrupt. This trend is accelerating. All product sold to US and EU market will get affected LONG-TERM, not short-term. Don't buy when everybody get greedy like 899. Bilis must have a sharp mind to judge the very likely reason why 899 got mad. Those who intend to buy now, think twice. You have lots of opportunity to buy after some time. This time is not a good time. Too many greedy people now. And these greedy people already get stressed out like 899 and trying to attack people who shared opposite views. I think all of you have intelligence to judge what's the best for yourself.

Ooihk899 just inreased his bet before I give updates on warying info. And he is fustrated when I give warning just after he has bought more. He's really mad and hateful now. "wakakakaka"

And I like to sabotage conman's plan like yours.

Normally conman will make sound like "wakakakaka". True enough.

I think your logic came from under-developed brain. The real conman is the one waiting for higher price to sell but annoyed when other people give warning not to chase high.

Other than "Wakakaka" what else you know? Only the rubbish knowledge like "I hope this" "I hope that", "I want to buy more when it drops", all are rubbish. Who cares you buy or sell your underwear?

I would be happy if you continue to hold it. Unless I'm spoiling your plan then only it makes sense that you get mad. Again, you are just an old rude man with no value to share.

Most of the people only thought of the expiry of the tax exemption. I just pointed out other concerns in addition of that. That's just my view. I could be wrong. Different views & opinions are welcome. I am interested to sit and watch what happen througout the remaining days this month. I share these thoughts before the quarter result because there is no point to share after that.

As for growth in Asia Pacific, if you know the actual figure, and its weightage of the total sales, you won't mention it.

The revenue Uchi got from every single sale of the coffee machine is declining over the years. So the profit sharing by % is actually going down. This is masked by overall increased number of machines sold. So Uchi is a partner got a smaller share of the cake (you do not feel it because the cake has been made bigger). But in 2023 Q1 the whole cake will be smaller, the lowest Q1 result ever in the past few years, due to the situation in US and EU. Although Uchi exports to EU only, large part of the end product will end up in US. So US market play a very important role. In fact, US market has been the key driver of growth in the past few years. As for the projected report for 2023 - 2028 etc... You know these usually do not take into consideration the latest situation, or even the situation in the last few months. A lot of these authors missed to predict the rapid growth in 2021-2022 when people get locked down at home. Similarly they won't be able to give you the alarm when disastrous change is going to happen. They don't bother to do that because what they are predicting is 2028 as a whole result, so even if they lead you to the longkang this year, you can't say they are wrong.

You are just a rude old man with no value to share and attack people who take opposite stand with you.

If everyone already know how bad it is, then why are you bothered when I say it is going to be bad? Other than guessing people's intention, can't you do your own research and share your opinion based on what you observe?

I'm not sure why are you here? Not giving any info, analysis, and insight. Only open mouth to attack people.

If you only read the very basic report, you can only see "behind". You want to see "in front", then must do a lot more.

You can't just hope. Hope is useless. Must have info plus your own analysis.

That's because I "see" something more than what was disclosed in the report you mention. You always underestimate people. They even predict revenue in USD to be flat right. Well, let's see when Q1 report release.

Remember I predicted 2022 Q4 profit should be about the same or slightly higher than 2022 Q3, that's based on data too. If you like to follow my posts, go check other posts and judge yourself.

As for collecting after ex-, I tell you, experience told me that, the share price wont respond to what you say or what I say. Don't be naive. Experience told me that, investors are stubborn, and always regret after some time. The reason I share is to ex-change thought. You know who are the active big investors behind this stock in recent days trading then you won't be able to think like that.

It is true a lot of coffee business mushrooms. I hope they bought Jura machines. But after a few days of study and data collection, I changed my mind. The data changed my mind. I guess you havent sold your shares. You should be glad I tell you early. Those who do their homework will be able to understand and verify my thought.

Under this environment, consumer will downgrade their requirement to opt for manual and cheaper machines. This is because many M40 in Europe has become B40.