HLIB Retail Research – 23 Jan - Bullish Tracker Date: 2024-01-23 Firm: HLG Stock: SIMEPROP Price Target: 1.05 Price Call: BUY Last Price: 0.715 Upside/Downside: +0.335 (46.85%) SIMEPROP (5288)-Main market, Property As the largest industrial developer in Malaysia, SIMEPROP’s is well-positioned to capitalize on the thriving industrial segment, which is benefitting from strong FDIs as a result of re-shoring activities by global manufacturers due to rising geopolitical tensions. This should bode well for the industrial contribution to SIMEPROP’s sales, which had seen sizeable increase from 0% in 2019 to 33% of its 9M23 sales. This segment is attractive, fetching higher margin and faster construction time compared to residential.
Landed residential is SIMEPROP’s forte. Overall, green shoots are emerging for residential landed in greater Klang Valley (KV) as evident from the improving and strong take-up rates enjoyed by landed township developers not only in KV but also in the fringe areas of Negeri Sembilan. Given that 94% of the group’s remaining GDV are in the greater KV region, the group is poised to greatly benefit from this trend.
Reiterates BUY with a RM1.05 TP (ascribing a 50% discount to our estimated RNAV of RM2.10) as the group’s strong execution track record and well-planned strategies should allow it to ride this new upcycle.
Positive Cup with Handle formation may spur share prices higher towards 0.765-0.795-0.93 levels
✅Current price: RM0.71
✅Entry: RM0.69-0.71-0.715
✅Resistance: RM0.765-0.795-0.93
✅Cut loss: RM0.675
✅FY12/2024E DY: 3.4%
✅Latest Book value/shr (RM): 1.45
✅Price/book value (x): 0.49 (-18% vs 10Y avg 0.6x)
✅Risk profile: Medium
Source: Hong Leong Investment Bank Research - 23 Jan 2024
SimeProp is currently the largest industrial developer in Malaysia with more than RM15bn remaining GDV for industrial developments. The group has several industrial lands in townships such as Bandar Bukit Raja, Elmina Business Park, Serenia City, Hamilton Nilai City, Bandar Universiti Pagoh and the more recently acquired Kapar land. The industrial segment remains attractive given the strong FDI flows to Malaysia, noting that in 2022, Malaysia recorded its highest net FDI amounting to RM73.3bn (+52.2% YoY) (see Figure #1 below). As a geopolitically neutral country, Malaysia is well-positioned to benefit from the de-globalization trend as manufacturers re-shore and recalibrate their supply chains due to the ongoing US-China trade friction and Russia-Ukraine war.
Ready to soar. In a property upcycle, the developer that will see the largest re-rating in stock price are those that (i) are pure-play developers; (ii) have largest landbank; (iii) strong execution; and (iv) undemanding valuation. SimeProp meets all these criteria and currently has a head start in the upcycle ahead of its peers given its exposure to the attractive segments. With the last hurdle of labour shortage resolved, we think the group is ready to double down on its effort and go into market more aggressively moving forward, which should culminate in stronger earnings growth in years to come.
Sime Darby Property Berhad SIMEPROP Share Price 7 Day 1 Year 0.78 4.0% 56.0%
Price target increased by 7.8% to RM0.88 Up from RM0.81, the current price target is an average from 13 analysts. New target price is 12% above last closing price of RM0.78. Stock is up 56% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of RM0.06 for next year compared to RM0.06 last year.
Maintain BUY, TP rises to MYR1.05 from MYR0.93, 31% upside with c.3% FY24F yield. Sime Darby Property’s 4Q23 earnings beat expectations. Its full-year property sales of MYR3.3bn exceeded management’s original target again. Riding on the strong momentum, management has set a sales target of MYR3bn for FY24, while current bookings have already reached MYR1.9bn. We raise our TP for this stock, in view of the encouraging sentiment on the property market.
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sg999
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Posted by sg999 > 2024-01-13 02:11 | Report Abuse
if uems big fall, simepro will follow as well