Personal opinions today:

Following the US non-farm payrolls and average wages fell in August, the US announced last Friday that the September consumer price index and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell. The US job market and inflationary prices have slowed, but US 10-year Treasury yields are high, maintaining a 3.25% level, and short-term US Treasury yields are also high. US bonds have narrowed their returns on corporate income. Investors have transferred funds to increase their holdings of lower-risk bond markets. The US Dow Jones Index has accumulated a decline of more than 1,000 points. Before the US closed on Friday night, the Dow Jones index rebounded after 25,000 points and closed at 25,300 points. The stock market performed better, and the price of gold and silver adjusted to go down.

Investor confidence stabilized and the dollar rebounded. The market is worried that when the EU summit is held on October 17 and 18, the UK and EU Brexit agreements will be successfully completed. And there are rumors that some of the Brexit agreement is still divided, the pound fell first, dragging the euro. The euro against the pound has once seen a high of 0.8818.

This evening, the market is concerned about the US retail sales data for September, which is expected to grow to 0.6%, which is better than last month, but the results remain to be seen. Subsequent market will focus on economic and inflation data in Europe in this week data. On Wednesday, the euro zone and the UK announced the September consumer price index CPl, and the same day the UK announced the September retail price index. The UK announced September retail sales data on Thursday. These important data are approaching, also the risk of Brexit agreement, the expected volatility has increased significantly, you must pay attention to trading risks!

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1565/1.1585 resistance

1.1520/1.1500 support

Tonight, the US announced retail sales in September, and the market expects growth to be better than last month. It is expected that the US dollar will perform strongly before the release of US data to curb the euro. After the US data, this week's market focus on the Eurozone economy and inflation data, as mentioned above. And on the day of the EU summit, the results of the negotiations between the UK and the EU were announced. The market is worried about the outcome, and the euro may see a downward trend. Technically, 1.1520 and 1.1500 are technical support positions, the final performance, still look at the Eurozone inflation data and the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, that the market volatility is greater.

GBPUSD

1.3135/1.3155 resistance

1.3055/1.3035 support

On the EU summit on Thursday, there have been rumors in the market over the past weekend that the content of the Brexit negotiations is still divided. The pound opened this morning. But in the short term, the US announced retail sales in September tonight, and the market is expected to grow. It is estimated that before the release of US data, the US dollar performed strongly and curbed the pound. In the next two days, the UK has more important economy and inflation data released. Therefore, before the Brexit negotiations announced the results, we still pay attention to the impact and fluctuations of the data results.

USDCHF

0.9920/0.9935 resistance

0.9895/0.9880 support

The dollar rebounded and the euro fell, indirectly curbing the rise of the Swiss franc and making adjustments. First, the US announced retail sales in September tonight, the market is expected to grow, and the dollar is rising against the Swiss franc. If the result is an unexpected market, the US dollar against the Swiss franc will be affected and fluctuated. If there is a gap in the results of the September retail sales in the United States, note that the dollar has increased volatility against the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY

112.40/112.55 resistance

111.85/111.70 support

The Japanese government plans to raise the consumption tax to 10% in the two years, and Japanese companies and consumers expressed concern. The most important companies are worried about future sales decline, affecting business development and profitability. Japan’s Nikkei index fell, dragging the dollar down against the yen. But tonight, the US announced September retail sales data, the short-term US dollar performance is strong, may support the dollar against the yen.

AUDUSD

0.7115/0.7130 resistance

0.7085/0.7070 support

In the evening, US retail sales in September is expected to rise, and the bullish dollar will indirectly affect the adjustment of the AUDUSD. In addition, China’s September economy and inflation data released in this week, that may affect the performance of the Australian dollar.

NZDUSD

0.6515/0.6530 resistance

0.6475/0.6460 support

In the evening, US retail sales in September is  expected to rise, and the bullish dollar and that will indirectly affect the NZDUSD. In addition, China’s September economic and inflation data released this week may affect the performance of the AUDUSD and NZDUSD as well.

USD/CAD

1.3045/1.3060 resistance

1.2990/1.2975 support

The oil price rebounded and the bullish the dollar. In addition, a number of Canadian economic data released this week, the market expectation can continue the growth of Canadian economic data, USDCAD may go down. In the short-term trend, we must pay attention to the development of oil prices.

EUR/GBP

0.8825/0.8840 resistance

0.8785/0.8770 support

The euro is trading better than the pound, with a bullish euro against the pound. The reason is that the market rumors that the Brexit negotiations are still divided, the pound fell more than the euro. In the short term, we still wait to see the difference between the UK and Eurozone economic and inflation data as an assessment trend.

EURCHF

1.1470/1.1485 resistance

1.1430/1.1415 support

The market is concerned that the euro zone consumer price data this week. If the data is better than last month, will be positive the euros, there is a chance that the euro will rise against the Swiss franc. Technically, the euro against the Swiss franc short-term adjustment to 1.1430 and 1.1415 support. Now it may test the support first.

XAUUSD

1224/1226 resistance

1217/1215 support

Tonight, US retail sales data in September is expected to better than last month, the gold price downward. If the final result is not as expected, and the stock market falls, gold has a chance to rebound. Coupled with the risks of Brexit from the UK and the EU, if market anxiety, there is a chance to stimulate gold to rise. The above reference price support and resistance are only used as short-term reference materials, and attention must be paid to fundamentals such as data and information performance.

US crude oil futures:

72.75/73.05 resistance

71.05/70.75 support

Earlier, US politics and Sino-US trade uncertainty and crude oil inventories increased sharply, and oil prices fell last week. The United States will release retail sales data for September, which is expected to increase, coupled with recent political factors that have boosted oil prices. In addition, seasonal demand is expected to increase, and crude oil prices have the opportunity to test high.

BTCUSD:

6330 / 6450 resistance

5980 /5860 support

US 10 year treasury bond yield keeps 7 year record high, capital funds transfer to bond . Cryptocurrency have a downside risk. Now, the market observe the performance of the US CPI tomorrow, the bitcoin keep downward. 

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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