ATFX Market Outlook, 2018 Oct 19

Personal opinions today:

The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU are looking for further development, and the two sides continue to negotiate. However, the UK data was weak. The number of jobless claims rose in September, and the consumer price index and retail price index fell. Yesterday's announcement of UK seasonal retail sales was lower than last month and market expectations, negative for the pound. The market is waiting to for the UK government's shortfall in revenue and expenditure narrowed today, and public sector borrowing. If the data is positive, it will help boost the pound. Before the UK data, the euro zone's August current account after the adjustment of the current account is worthy of attention. If the current account grows, it will be more euros.

In the evening, the US announced the existing home sales data for September. The market is expected to slow down from last month, which is negative for the US dollar. The market is more concerned about the 8:30 pm, Canada's September CPl and retail sales data, the relevant data, the USDCAD may have greater fluctuations. If the data shows growth, the bullish  CAD.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1435/1.1415 support

1.1485/1.1505 resistance

At the EU summit, there was no agreement on the Brexit negotiations, which was bad for the euro. The market waits for other economic data in the euro zone to judge the position of the European Central Bank's interest rate monetary policy next Thursday. At present, the technical trend of the euro against the US dollar continues to decline. The market is worried about the Italian budget. The expenditure is too high, affecting the relationship between Italy and the EU, and the euro is negative. Technically, the 1.1480 fell below and is testing other support below. The first reference support is 1.1430.

GBPUSD

1.3005/1.2985 support

1.3050/1.3070 resistance

The market is waiting the Brexit negotiations result. The important negotiation which is Irish trade border and working visa for the two places still have to be resolved. The trend is still bearish. Coupled with the weak performance of the UK data, the market investment intentions fell, and the pound continued to fall. The current Brexit negotiations will take several weeks to discuss and it is necessary to observe the economic data comparison between the UK and the US. Technically, attention to the support 1.3030 has been lost, the next support is 1.3005 and 1.2985 support.

USDCHF

0.9970/1.0005 resistance

0.9940/0.9920 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting show that the interest rates hikes, the dollar is strong, and the Swiss franc is weak. In addition, the euro fell, and the Swiss franc fell. The market is waiting for the European Central Bank to decide on interest rates next week. If the market believes that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy and the euro rises, the Swiss franc will follow.

USD/JPY

112.40/112.60 resistance

112.05/111.85 support

Japan’s Nikkei index fell from rising to rising, and the Nikkei and the US dollar were similar to the yen. Technically, as yesterday's analysis looks similar, USD/JPY has adjusted after 112.55 and 112.75 and adjusted to 112.15 support. If USDJPY stop at 112.40 and 112.60 in the short term, the next step will be to test the 111 level.

AUDUSD

0.7115/0.7130 resistance

0.7090/0.7075 support

The Australian employment report for September did not stand out, and the Australian dollar fell. The Fed supports a interest  rate hike. Some analysts report say that the US economy will decline, copper prices go down, and the Australian dollar will be negative as well.

NZDUSD

0.6565/0.6580 resistance

0.6525/0.6510 support

The Fed’s monetary policy maintains a interest rate hike, which is a negative for the New Zealand dollar. Short-term New Zealand has no important data to announce, and the trend will continue to follow the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

USD/CAD

1.3085/1.3105 resistance

1.3060/1.3045 support

US crude oil supply has increased, and the market is worried that the economy will face a recession, oil prices will fall, and the Canadian dollar will be negative. However, it is worth noting in the short term. Tonight, Canada announced the important economic data includes consumer price index and retail sales in September. If the data shows growth, bullish Canadian dollar.

EUR/GBP

0.8810/0.8825 resistance

0.8785/0.8760 support

The EU and the UK government said that the Brexit agreement still needs time to discuss, and the euro against the pound continues to move upward. The UK data disappointed the market, and the bearish pound was one of the reasons for the rise of the euro against the pound. If the fundamentals have not changed, it is estimated that the trend will continue to rise.

EURCHF

1.1445/1.1460 resistance

1.1405/1.1385 support

Technically, the euro fell against the Swiss franc to 1.1450 support, and the trend continued to test support. Last night, the euro against the Swiss franc once fell below 1.14, as expected 1.1445 if not breakthrough, the trend will continues to downward.

XAUUSD

1230/1232 resistance

1222/1220 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting, officials unanimously support the pace of gradual rate hikes, gold that is sensitive to interest rate movements has therefore fallen. However, the interest rate hike is expected to cause investors to worry about the economic recession, funds out of the stock market, and gold temporarily become a hedging tool. If the US Dow changes its direction and rises sharply, the price of gold will fall.

US crude oil futures:

69.65/70.05 resistance

68.60/68.30 support

The Fed’s comments made bad the oil prices. The oil price fell below $70, and for the first time hit 73.6% of the adjustment wave, $69.45. The market continued to ferment the Fed’s interest rate hike and economic recession outlook, worried about the oversupply of crude oil and the decline in oil prices. At present, there is no other news that can boost the price of oil. Looking forward the oil price to test 68.30 US dollars.

BTCUSD:

6680 / 6750 resistance

6280 /6060 support

FOMC prediction, interest rate hike. The demand of bitcoin decreased. As expectation yesterday, 6750 is a important resistance. Since the break through resistance point fails, the price go down. Now it may test 6280 or 6060 support.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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