Personal opinions today:

The initial value of GDP in the third quarter of the US fell to only 3.5%. Although it was slightly higher than the original estimate of the market, compared with the final value of GDP in the second quarter was 4.2%. The growth of the economy in the third quarter showed signs of slowing down. The reason may be related to US President Trump’s implementation of personal tax rebates and corporate tax incentives in the second quarter. In the third quarter, tax incentives have gradually become ineffective and lack of incentives to stimulate economic power.

After the important economic data last week, this week's US job data is also very important. In addition to the US Labor Department's October job market report on Friday, investors are more likely to pay attention to the number of ADP private business jobs in the US in October. This data helps to estimate the number of non-agricultural employment announced by the US Department of Labor. On the night of the non-farm data release on Friday, the market paid more attention to the average hourly wage performance of the United States in October. Because the performance of wage data can help reference and evaluate the US CPl, these inflation data can help predict the Fed's monetary policy orientation, affecting the US dollar, and affect the price movement of the US dollar against major currencies and gold and other commodities.

Tonight, the US announced September personal spending and income, as well as the core PCE price index. The market expects the data to be higher than the previous value. I believe that before the results are announced, there will be opportunities to increase the US dollar, indirectly negative European currencies and other currencies against the US dollar, and also bearish the price of gold.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1370/1.1355 support

1.1415/1.1430 resistance

The initial value of the third quarter GDP in the United States fell compared with market expectations, and the strength of the US dollar has slowed down, boosting the euro. The market is expecting a number of important data performances in the Eurozone this week, including Eurozone third-quarter GDP, September unemployment rate and October CPl data, as well as data from Germany, the major economy in the Eurozone. At the same time, US economic and job data also affects the performance of the euro. Technically, the euro continues to decline. If the data is released, the euro still has not broken the resistance of 1.1415 and 1.1430, indicating that the trend has not changed, and continues to test low. The short-term euro is likely to be expected by the Eurozone and US economic data, with support around 1.1355.

GBPUSD

1.2800/1.2785 support

1.2860/1.2875 resistance

The market is concerned about the position of the Bank of England on interest rates and monetary policy this Friday. In addition, the Brexit negotiations are equally important. On the eve of November, the market is concerned about the progress of the Brexit negotiations. If there is no good news to announce, the negative trend of the pound. Investors wait and see the US job data released, may be before the US ADP employment data released in October, due to market expectations of employment decline, short-term pounds, technical support is 1.2785, if it falls below 1.2710.

USDCHF

1.0015/1.0030 resistance

0.9965/0.9950 support

US economic data and interest rate outlook have affected the trend of European currencies, while the Brexit negotiations and the Italian budget remain unresolved. Some euro funds flow into the Swiss franc, and the Swiss franc is stronger than the euro. But we must pay attention to the impact of US job data this week.

USD/JPY

112.05/112.30 resistance

111.60/111.45 support

Fluctuations in the US stock market and global stock markets have driven the Japanese Nikkei index to fluctuate equally. The most important stock market direction is pulling the dollar against the yen. At present, we continue to observe trading hours in Asia and Europe, and the stock market moves against the dollar against the yen. Technically, continue to focus on the resistance of 112.60 and 112.75. If there is no breakthrough, the trend is still looking downward.

AUDUSD

0.7065/0.7055 support

0.7095/0.7105 resistance

This week, the October US job data will released, and there is an opportunity to expect the dollar to fall and boost the Australian dollar. Technically, focus on 0.7055 support. If the support is found successfully, there will be a chance of a "head and shoulders" pattern in the short-term situation, and the trend may turn from steady to rising.

NZDUSD

0.6505/0.6490 support

0.6530/0.6545 resistance

This week's the October US job data will released, and there was an opportunity to expect the dollar to fall and boost the New Zealand dollar. Technically, focus on 0.6545 resistance while observing 0.6505 support. If the support is found successfully, there will be a chance of a "head and shoulders" pattern in the short-term situation, and the trend may turn from steady to rising.

USD/CAD

1.3080/1.3060 support

1.3125/1.3145 resistance

Last week, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 0.25%, and the news has been digested. The central bank’s monetary policy stance remained neutral and did not indicate the next rate hike. The market is watching the Canadian GDP in August that released on Wednesday. If it continues to slow down, it may be negative for the Canadian dollar. However, the trend of oil prices may also drive one of the factors in the Canadian dollar, which deserves attention.

EUR/GBP

0.8890/0.8905 resistance

0.8865/0.8850 support

The EU and the British government said that the Brexit agreement still needs time to discuss, the British prime minister's status is affected, and the bearish pound is expected to continue its upward trend against the pound. If the fundamentals have not changed, it is estimated that the trend will continue to rise. Technically, 0.8865 is short-term support. If the trend continues to rise, it will test resistance at 0.8905.

EURCHF

1.1385/1.1400 resistance

1.1350/1.1335 support

After the EURCHF showed a double-top pattern, the trend showed an adjustment. The neckline target was 1.1365, which can be used as an important support. Currently in the vicinity of the neckline support, if you break through 1.1335 further, look down 1.1310. However, it must be noted that if it breaks through 1.1385, the trend will be reversed.

XAUUSD

1239/1242 resistance

1230/1228 support

The US Dow and global stock markets are fluctuation. Gold as one of hedging tools. If the stock market fell, and gold prices rose. Technically, the gold first resistance area between 1239 and 1240, and it is expected to support 1230 and 1228. But we must pay attention to the trend of the US Dow stock market, observe the trend of the US Dow, and help to grasp the trend of gold. If the market survey believes that the US job data is weak this week, the gold will expand the upside resistance.

US crude oil futures:

68.60/69.05 resistance

66.60/66.20 support

The United States formally imposed sanctions on Iran and oil prices rebounded. The market is waiting for other news and the crude oil inventories this week, which will boost oil prices in the short term. The recommendation is currently focused on $66 support. If the rebound, the first resistance target is $68.60.

BTCUSD:

6680 / 6750 resistance

6340 /6260 support

After the US released the Beige Book report, the US dollar weakened, positive the bitcoin. The market, now,focused on US job data  this week. As expectation the bitcoin , US6750 is a important resistance. If anytime the Bitcoin reach US6340 or 6260 support and maintain US6000 support, the trend will be upward.

Reminder: In the past weekend, the European region has implemented winter time, and the European trading hours and data release time are one hour later than the summer time. Winter time will be implemented in North America from coming this Sunday to March 10, 2019, and the trading hours and data release time will be one hour later than the summer time.

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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