ATFX Market Update_Martin

ATFX Market Update - 2018.11.28

ATFX
Publish date: Wed, 28 Nov 2018, 10:58 AM
Personal opinions today:

At the G20 meeting to be held on Friday, investors expect the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States to resolve trade tensions. The rise of the US Dow has driven the global stock market to do well. This morning, the Asian stock market opened up generally, and safe-haven funds flowed to the stock market, and gold prices fell. Another reason for the fall in gold prices and the rise in the US dollar is that Fed officials said that the Fed will consider maintaining a gradual rate hike, meaning the next Fed meeting on December 19, the interest rate hike is expected, boosting the dollar. Coupled with the euro zone's Italian fiscal deficit has not been resolved, the British Brexit agreement is still veto inside the Congress, the market is worried about the euro and the pound investment confidence, creating a strong dollar.

This morning, the US API crude oil inventories announced a sharp increase from last week and expectations. There is an increase in Saudi oil production. It is not helpful for OPEC to reduce production next month. As a result, oil prices are weak. It is expected that the US ElA crude oil production will also increase tonight, and oil prices will have a chance to fall further.

In the afternoon, the European region data, mainly pay attention to the Italian PPI and the euro zone money supply. From late evening to 21:30, the market is watching the US third-quarter GDP revision. The data is currently expected to have a chance to grow from the previous value, which is bullish. Therefore, it can be judged as a possible cause of negative European currency and gold. If the US GDP results fail to maintain the 3.5% expected level, there will be an excuse for a negative dollar to boost European currencies and gold prices. If the US GDP is weak, it may become a reason for the stock market to fall. Investors are recommended to pay special attention!

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 
1.1305/1.1325 resistance
1.1260/1.1245 support
Italy's fiscal deficit has caused the EU to consider limiting Italian aid, and the market is worried that the European Union and the European Central Bank will extend their LTRO schemes, which is bad for the euro. The draft Brexit agreement is still awaiting debate in the British parliament, there is a possibility of veto, and it is also bad for the euro. In the short-term, the most important thing is to wait and see the United States to announce the third quarter GDP revision figures. Which is good and bad results will become the judgment of the dollar trend, which will indirectly affect the fluctuations of Euro.

GBPUSD
1.2835/1.2855 resistance
1.2775/1.2750 support
The Brexit agreement will eventually have to wait for the British parliament to debate and finalize it. At present, the draft agreement debates, there are many comments that the draft has a chance to veto. If the opposition in the British Parliament is endless, it will continue to bring bad feelings, the pound will continue to decline. The greater the pessimism, the pound may break below 1.2700 and look down at the August low of 1.2655. Today, the most important thing to watch is the United States to announce the third quarter GDP revision figures. Which is good or bad that will be the judgment of the dollar trend and affect the fluctuation of the pound.

USDCHF 
0.9975/0.9955 support
1.0010/1.0035 resistance
The draft Brexit agreement has warmed pessimism, and the trend in Euro has fallen, indirectly to the Swiss franc. In the past two days, Switzerland has released the investor confidence index and the third quarter GDP performance. If the data is good, there is a chance to benefit the Swiss trend. However, the current strength of the US dollar, the dollar against the Swiss franc is still likely to test the resistance of 1.0035. It is worth noting tonight that the US announced the impact of the third quarter GDP performance on the US dollar, while affecting the dollar against the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY
114.00/114.20 resistance
113.55/113.35 support
The performance of the US Dow's stock market continued to improve, driving the Japanese Nikkei index to rise, and the outflow of funds into the stock market, giving the dollar a chance to test the 114 level in the short term. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to stock market performance, which will help analyze the trend of the US dollar against the yen. It is worth noting tonight that the US announced the impact of the third quarter GDP performance on the US dollar and stock markets.

AUDUSD 
0.7240/0.7255 resistance
0.7195/0.7180 support
Australia's third-quarter construction completion rate fell sharply, affecting the performance of the Australian dollar. In addition, most of the current market expectations of the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, It may believe that it is one of the short-term negative factors in Australia dollar and continue to test the low. It is worth noting tonight that the US announced the impact of the third quarter GDP performance on the US dollar, which indirectly affects the short-term Australian dollar volatility.

NZDUSD 
0.6795/0.6810 resistance
0.6765/0.6750 support
New Zealand's economic data has slowed down recently and the trend is weak. In addition, most of the current market expectations of the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, It may believe that it is one of the short-term negative factors, continue to test the low. Short-term important news, it is worth noting that the United States announced the impact of the third quarter GDP performance on the US dollar tonight, indirectly affecting the New Zealand dollar.

USD/CAD
1.3335/1.3355 resistance
1.3290/1.3275 support
The Fed’s interest rate hike expectations next month and the oil price trend are weak, which is negative for the Canadian dollar. If the oil price can get rid of the downward trend, there will be a chance to increase the Canadian dollar, otherwise there will still be room for decline. It is recommended that the current focus on oil price performance has a direct impact on the Canadian dollar. It is worth noting that the United States announced the impact of the third quarter GDP performance tonight, which indirectly affects the Canadian dollar.

EUR/GBP
0.8865/0.8880 resistance
0.8840/0.8825 support
The euro and the pound are weak each other under the Fed's interest rate hike next month, which keeps the euro against the pound and maintains a narrow range of fluctuations. At present, the final result of the Brexit in the UK and the EU is not complete. It is recommended to wait any breaking news to change the trend. In short term, could be following in the present recommended range.

EURCHF 
1.1290/1.1315 resistance
1.1260/1.1245 support
Switzerland will release important reference data today and tomorrow, the market is expecting a bullish Swiss franc. On the other side, there is an Italian fiscal deficit in the Eurozone, which makes investors uneasy and bears the euro, leaving the euro at a downside risk against the Swiss franc. Currently concerned about the resistance of 1.1290 and 1.1315, keep the support level below. If the trend changes, the euro will break above 1.1330 against the Swiss franc, indicating that the downward trend may change.

XAUUSD 
1219/1221 resistance
1213/1211 support
The Fed’s remarks generally believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December and let the gold demand fell. On the other hand, US stock market rose and funds flowed to the stock market, withdrawals from gold which caused the price of gold to fall. However, it must be noted that European political and economic issues, the G20 meeting on coming Friday, whether the Sino-US trade relationship can be moderated is still the key. It could believed that positive and bad news exist at the same time, affect each other, lack of general direction, and suggest trading between technical support and resistance. Now maybe waiting for further fundamentals signal and the trend’s breakthrough.

US crude oil futures:
52.05/52.35 resistance
50.40/49.95 support
The Saudi oil currently increases output, causing crude oil inventories to rise and oil prices to fall. The Fed intends to maintain the pace of increasing interest rates, which is not favorable to crude oil demand. It is difficult to stimulate the rise in crude oil demand in the short term, and it is estimated that oil prices will continue to be downtrend. If any good news at the G20 meeting on the weekend, it is expected that crude oil prices will have a chance to rebound.

BTCUSD:
4000 / 4120 resistance 
3575 / 3300 support 
Seems the price of bitcoin rebound a bit before US3575 support. However, as prediction a week ago we said, US Fed intends interest rate hike and US government intends to more control the crypto currency market , it made the demand changed, the crypto currencies may keep downward until next FOMC meeting in mid-December. The  downside target may test lower. Now the price maybe adjusted to US4000 or 4120 resistance. If the bitcoin break USD4320, probably the trend can be change. 

Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals

such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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