ATFX Market Update_Martin

ATFX Market Update - 2018.11.30

ATFX
Publish date: Fri, 30 Nov 2018, 11:11 AM
Personal opinions today:

Yesterday, the Fed speech shown slow down the rate hike next year, the dollar performance is slightly weak and below the 97 level. However, the performance of European data is still slowing down. The British Parliament may veto the plan for the draft Brexit agreement. The trend of the Euro and the British pound cannot be further increased. Driven by risk aversion, the gold market was more active, and the price of gold remained above $1,222 once challenging $1228.5.

The G20 Leaders' Meeting opened today, and the global close economic and trade cooperation is the topic. It is expected that at the meeting, countries will reach more cooperation agreements, promote trade, and bring more investment opportunities to the stock market. But another important point is that tomorrow's, the Chinese president and the US president's dinner party will meet. It is expected that the two sides will reach a consensus before the meeting, which will break the ice for the Sino-US trade tariff issue and bring global economic growth. It is recommended to pay more attention to relevant news later today, and to prepare for the evening trading and the market opening on Monday.

Today's data attention includes:
In the afternoon, pay attention to the unemployment rate in the euro zone and CPl data. In the evening, Canada announced the September GDP and industrial and raw material price index. Later, the US announced the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMl). But the overall goal is still to bring economic development to the G20 meeting, which will help to boost European and Asian currencies while boosting the stock market and oil prices. As a result of this, gold and silver may have a chance to fall.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1405/1.1425 resistance
1.1350/1.1335 support
The comments of the Fed chairman suggest that the Fed’s rate hike will slow down, and the negative dollar will help boost the euro. However, it is believed that the rebound of the euro is only short-term. If the unemployment rate in the euro zone and CPl will improve. The European economy has been growing at a slower pace. Please check the announcement today in afternoon. The Italian fiscal deficit problem remains unresolved. Coupled with the risks of the Brexit problem affecting the Eurozone economy, the euro is unlikely to rise sharply. Technically, the first resistance of the European and American 1.1395 is still very important. If there is no any good news to further stimulate the breakthrough resistance, it is estimated that there is a downside risk in Euro.

GBPUSD
1.2805/1.2825 resistance
1.2740/1.2720 support
The draft Brexit agreement will be submitted to the British Parliament for debate and final vote from the beginning of next month to the 12th. The current draft agreement is subject to opposition from inside and outside the British Parliament, and it is dominated by the bearish sentiment which causes the pound will continue to decline. After the support level of 1.2720, the next support level is 1.2655. But we must pay attention to the G20 meeting. It has the opportunity to improve the economy expected, positive for pounds.

USDCHF
0.9945/0.9930 support
0.9980/1.0005 resistance
The Fed chairman released the dovish message, and the comments caused the dollar to fall, and the dollar fell against the Swiss franc. Yesterday, the news was suggested to be short-term. The final trend did not continue because the US inflation performance continued to grow moderately. However, Switzerland’s third-quarter GDP slowed yesterday and the Swiss franc could not rise. If the performance of the euro continues to fall, it will indirectly affect the resistance of the US dollar against the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY
113.55/113.75 resistance
113.25/113.00 support
The US Dow's continued to perform well, driving the global stock market index to rise, and the USD/JPY remained at 113 levels. The short-term USD/JPY has the opportunity to test 113.25 or 113.00 support. If the US president treats China with a tough stance, the stock market will fall and the above support will have a chance to fall.

AUDUSD
0.7330/0.7345 resistance
0.7295/0.7280 support
The Fed chairman dovish speech, the dollar fell, and the Australian dollar strengthened against the dollar. The G20 meeting is just around the corner, and the market is expecting progress in Sino-US trade negotiations to eliminate market worries. However, the final result is difficult to judge, and the market may hesitate to reduce the Australian dollar long position, the Australian dollar adjusted against the US dollar, the first adjustment can be referenced to 0.7280.

NZDUSD
0.6870/0.6885 resistance
0.6830/0.6815 support
The G20 meeting brought market shackles, and the Fed chairman’s dovish speech boosted the New Zealand dollar. However, the Fed failed to persuade the Fed to stop raising interest rates in the future. In addition, the inflation data released by the US last night is still growing moderately. The New Zealand dollar will adjust to the US dollar first and support it.

USD/CAD
1.3305/1.3325 resistance
1.3265/1.3245 support
Oil prices once fell below the $50 support, but then rebounded. The Fed’s chairman of the dovish speech, respectively, positive for the Canadian dollar. However, the overall performance of oil prices is still weak. The inflation data released by the United States still has moderate growth. It is believed that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will fluctuate within the above recommendations in the short term. If Canada's September GDP performance is outstanding tonight, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar may test 1.3245 support.

EURGBP
0.8880/0.8860 support
0.8930/0.8945 resistance
The draft Brexit agreement remains to be voted on by the British Parliament on December 12. Unfortunately, before the current debate in Congress, the market worried that there were more oppositions, the draft could not pass, and the pound was weak. Compared with the euro, the euro is stronger than the pound, the euro has a chance to rise against the pound, and the resistance of 0.8945 has a chance to break through. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the Eurozone unemployment rate and CPl data today. If the data beats expectations, the EUR/GBP can maintain its upward trend.

EURCHF
1.1330/1.1315 support
1.1360/1.1375 resistance
Switzerland announced that third-quarter GDP data was lower than market expectations, and the Swiss franc was weaker, and the euro rose further against the Swiss franc. Yesterday's proposed resistance of 1.1300 and 1.1315 broke, respectively. If the euro zone data beats expectations in the afternoon, the euro against the Swiss franc can test the resistance of 1.1360 and 1.1375.

XAUUSD 
1226/1228 resistance
1217/1215 support
A few days ago, the Fed’s president spoke dovish speech. The US stock market rose and it was bad for gold. However, it is generally believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December and will continue to negative the gold prices. It is only before the G20 meeting that there is still no decision on whether Sino-US trade relations can be improved. Some of the safe-haven funds flow into gold and boost the price of gold. At present, the market is waiting for the weekend of the G20 meeting. If the Sino-US trade war is moderated, gold will have a chance to fall. Recommended by the performance of the US Dow, let you know the market mentality and momentum of the trend of gold.

US crude oil futures:
52.05/52.45 resistance
50.70/50.20 support
At present, the market expects that Sino-US trade relations can be improved. The G20 meeting will bring more good news of economic cooperation, increase the demand. It is expected that crude oil prices will have a chance to rebound and it is expected to support the crude oil price to rise step by step.

BTCUSD:
4380 / 4550 resistance 
3820/ 3575  support 
With the dovish speech of the US’s Fed Chairman, the bitcoin seems pause to fall and back US4000. Technically, the crypto currencies looks stable, the price may maintain above US3830, the price could be going up.  The US inflation data to still good and the US Fed could raise the interest rate next month. If interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, US4380 and 4550 are the important resistance. Probably the price reverse if not breaks.

Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals

such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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