Personal opinions today:
The British Parliament will vote on the draft of the Brexit agreement, plus the slowdown of China's economic data. The US Dow has fallen over 200 points, the dollar fell against the yen, and gold rose last night.
The market focus, the British Parliament voted in the afternoon, however the exact time is not fixed. If the agreement is not passed, the UK will face a Brexit without agreement after March 29, the UK is in crisis, and the outflow of funds from the UK may be increased. It is estimated that the pound will be fall. If these problems arise, they will be affected the global financial and stock market, and the foreign exchange market and the gold market will also be affected. In addition, at the evening, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made a speech in the European Parliament, and the current estimate is biased towards the bearish in euro. However, we must pay attention to the Brexit decision, market volatility. Investors should pay more attention to market conditions, understand risks and control positions.
Last week, the European Central Bank said that the euro zone rate hike will be delayed until the end of the year, and consider continuing the second round of long-term financing plan (LTRO), affecting the euro's decline. Tonight, the ECB president said that the content is related to the above content, which is bad for the euro. In response to the Brexit vote in the afternoon, changes in market risk may affect the volatility of the euro against the US dollar.
The British voted off the European Union this afternoon, but the news said that if the draft is rejected, the British government will postpone the vote until the end of March. The market is currently waiting to see the final vote of the British Parliament and the next steps. It may be believe the pound has rebounded recently. If there is no good news to support the current position, the pound will face the risk of falling. When investing in pounds and related crosses, you must pay attention to risks! It is currently recommended to pay attention to the large fluctuations of the pound, paying attention to the resistance of 1.30 to 1.26 level.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said that the Fed's monetary policy will be close to the cycle rate hike target, may stop raising interest rates, the dollar slows down, and indirectly the Swiss franc. Earlier, the US dollar against the Swiss franc broke through the most resistance level of 0.9790. It once saw a high of 0.9850, which can be used as a reference. Preventing the risk of Brexit in the afternoon, indirectly affecting the Swiss franc, pay attention to trading risks and control positions when investing.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen said that after the Fed’s monetary policy, the US dollar slowed, but the Nikkei index rose, driving the dollar to rise against the yen. In the afternoon, we must pay close attention to the risk of Brexit and investment. It is expected that the Brexit vote will also bring fluctuations in the USD/JPY. It is not possible to estimate the correct volatility for the time being, but you can refer to the stock market performance, especially the performance of the Japan Nikkei.
Sino-US trade consultations are progressing well, and the Fed may slow down the rate hike this year, both of which are more profitable. Technically, the Australian dollar is expected to remain above 0.7145, testing the resistance range of 0.7235 and 0.7265. However, investment is risky. When investing, it is recommended to pay more attention to the news of Sino-US trade negotiations and the fluctuations caused by the UK Brexit vote in the afternoon.
The New Zealand dollar has followed the rise of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. The market is looking forward to more progress in Sino-US trade negotiations at the end of the month, which can support the continued rise of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. However, during this period, it is noted that the New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to adjust and the fluctuations caused by the Brexit vote in the afternoon.
Crude oil prices adjusted, and the Canadian dollar fell following the change in crude oil prices. It is recommended that Canada does not have important economic data and monetary policy comments, and must pay attention to the development of crude oil prices. In addition, the fluctuations that may occur in the UK's Brexit vote in the afternoon, it is recommended to pay attention to risks when investing. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar broke the 1.3255 resistance. According to last week's proposal, it is expected that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar will have the opportunity to test the 1.33 level.
In the afternoon, the British Parliament voted on the draft of the Brexit. If the government vetoed it, it might cause a fall in the pound. Conversely, if there is an alternative message, it can ease the pound's decline and rebound, making the euro rise against the pound. It is currently expected to vote on the Brexit vote, the risk of falling pounds will rise, and the euro will have a chance to rise against the pound, but it is necessary to pay attention to the voting results and circumstances, and it is recommended to pay more attention to trading risks.
The euro may be affected by the fall of the UK and the euro will be widened against the Swiss franc. In the afternoon, the British voted off the EU, the market risk increased. It is currently recommended to continue to wait and see if the test can be up to the high of 1.1345 resistance, and pay attention to the 1.1200 support.
The Federal Reserve Board and the European Central Bank said that there is no possibility of a rate hike in the short term. The risk of Brexit rises, and safe-haven funds continue to flow into gold, supporting the price of gold. At present, the short-term market is most worried that the Brexit vote will fail again, increase market risk and push up the price of gold. If you get support or arrange for a Brexit, it will probably cause the price of gold to fall. It is recommended that you pay attention to the risk and price fluctuations.
US crude oil futures:
The Sino-US trade war is easing, and the market has successfully negotiated between China and the United States, increasing the demand for crude oil, and the news has gradually digested. In the afternoon, the British voted off the EU, decided to produce crude oil price fluctuations, especially by Brent crude oil price fluctuations, indirectly affecting US crude oil prices. According to preliminary estimates, the price of crude oil futures may be adjusted to stop at 50 US dollars, and if it falls, it may fall further.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed will consider to hold interest rates, which is good for the investment climate. Yesterday, the US company's performance announcement period began. The market may wait and see the performance of the company and bring stock market volatility. The volatility may have been 200-400 points. The investment must pay attention to the risk tolerance.
3450 / 3360 support
3950 / 4050 resistance
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed will consider to hold interest rates, which is good for the investment climate. It seems the market fund transfer to stock markets, negative for crypto market. Technically, the price maybe testing 3450 support. Now keep watching the US do and global stock market performance, how to affected the demand of crypto currencies.
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
very nice info, will definitely use this as a guide today