Personal opinions today

 

The US Federal Reserve official dovish comments, affecting the US dollar index continued to fall below 97. On the Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will issue a record of the monetary policy meeting, and the market will wait for the Fed's monetary policy orientation. Of course, if the US economic data is weak in the past two months and the Fed officials take the remarks, the weak dollar will likely continue until the US economic data turns stronger. In addition, European economic performance and political and Brexit risks are related to the strength of the US dollar.

 

Yesterday was the US President’s Day, the US market was closed, and today’s market is reopening, but the lack of US economic data is released. The market focuses on the performance of the Eurozone and UK economic data today. These include the number of UK unemployment and unemployment claims and the German and Eurozone economic sentiment indices.

 

It is believed that the performance of the results will bring about fluctuations in European currencies. In addition, the Brexit uncertainty and believe that will make the market concerns, negative for the pound, and affect both the euro and the Swiss franc. Many of the above negative factors will have a support for gold and silver prices. Please pay attention!

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1340/1.1355 resistance

1.1285/1.1270 support

Federal Reserve officials predict that the US economy will continue to be stable, the pace of interest rate hikes will slow down, and it is recommended to stop raising interest rates. However, economic data in the Eurozone is still weak. In addition, the UK Brexit dragged down the European economy and limited the euro's rise. The market is watching the performance of the Eurozone and the German economic sentiment index and the UK job data. Technically, Euro 1.1340 is an important short-term resistance. If the fundamentals of the Eurozone have not improved, I believe that the opportunity to break through the resistance is low, and pay attention to the high adjustment risk, and may try to support 1.1270 in the future.

 

GBPUSD

1.2935/1.2950 resistance

1.2865/1.2850 support

The Brexit procedure of the UK on March 29 was not confirm, and it is believed that the pound is still weak. Even the GBPUSD rebound, but still looking weak again. Technically, the British pound against the US dollar may be subject to the resistance range of 1.2935 to 1.2950. It is to be seen that market sentiment and Brexit news have improved, and the British pound has broken through the range resistance. If the fundamentals continue to change and even worse news, the pound will have a chance to test the 1.2850 or below against the dollar. Please pay attention in the UK job data today in this afternoon.

 

USDCHF 

1.0060/1.0075 resistance

1.0030/1.0015 support

The Swiss franc has been dragged down by European economic and political factors. Technically, the US dollar has been consolidated against the Swiss franc in the 1.0095 or 1.0120 resistance range. The 61.8% support level for adjustment waves is 1.0030 and 73.6% is 1.0015. If you do not see the 1.0015 support level, it will have a chance to rebound and try to test the 1.0060 or 1.0075 resistance.

 

USDJPY

110.85/111.05 resistance

110.45/110.25 support

The US holiday was closed last night, and the stock market did not change much. The dollar was stable against the yen. At present, the market is holding a Sino-US trade negotiations in Washington this week to watch the outcome of the negotiations. If the US Dow and the Japanese stock market Nikkei keeps going upward. The safe-haven funds may have a high chance of outflowing the yen. The USD/JPY still has a chance to rise. If the Asian stock market performs strongly during the day, it is estimated that the USD/JPY will have the opportunity to continue to test the 111 level. Technically, USDJPY is concerned with 110.45 and 110.25 support.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7165/0.7180 resistance

0.7110/0.7085 support

If following the comments of the Federal Reserve Bank, the Australian dollar may be downward. If the market expects the Sino-US negotiations to be successful and the investment climate is strong, the Australian dollar is expected to continue its upward trend. It is recommended that the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations be closely monitored. In addition, the performance of the US economic data and the comments of Fed officials this Thursday morning.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6860/0.6880 resistance

0.6830/0.6810 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations has made progress, and the market waits for the next round of meetings and consultations in Washington this week. The current investment sentiment is improving, and the New Zealand dollar is expected to continue its upward trend. However, the performance of the Australian dollar may indirectly affect the short-term fluctuations of the New Zealand dollar. In the medium term, it is recommended to pay close attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, the performance of the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy record on Thursday morning.

 

USD/CAD

1.3265/1.3280 resistance

1.3215/1.3195 support

The Fed’s monetary policy comments made the dollar lower. In addition, crude oil prices rose, supporting the Canadian dollar. The release of the US crude oil inventories report may lead to the development of crude oil prices, and the US monetary policy orientation may push up the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USD/CAD may test 1.3215 and 1.3195 these two important support.

 

EUR/GBP

0.8780/0.8795 resistance

0.8745/0.8730 support

There are still uncertainties in the risk of Brexit, affecting the performance of the British pound. Today, the UK announced job data, the market is estimated to be bad for the pound, the pound has a downside risk, there is a chance to boost the euro against the pound. Technically, the euro broke the first significant resistance at 0.8780 against the pound and the next resistance was 0.8795 and the important support at 0.8730.

 

EURCHF 

1.1370/1.1390 ​​resistance

1.1340/1.1325 support

The euro zone was affected by Spain's early elections. The euro's performance was still weaker than that of the Swiss franc, and the euro against the Swiss franc continued to develop. Technically, 1.1330 and 1.1315 as important support level. If the Eurozone economic sentiment index improves today, the euro has a chance to strengthen, and the euro has a chance to test the 1.1370 resistance or higher against the Swiss franc.

 

XAUUSD 

1327/1329 resistance

1322/1319 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations have made progress, and the relationship between the two countries has further improved, stimulating the rise of global stock markets. In theory, the global stock market investment atmosphere will improve, and there will be downside risks to gold and silver prices. At present, we are paying close attention to the speeches of other Fed officials. If the Fed officials continue to make doves before the release of the Fed's monetary policy record on Thursday, it is believed that the price of gold is expected to go up further. On the contrary, it will probably fall, and the gold price trend will be reversed.

 

US crude oil futures:

56.70/57.05 resistance

55.65/55.05 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations look good and the dovish speech of the Fed officials have once again boosted crude oil prices. The OPEC oil group said it will continue to cut production. If the China-US consultation progresses again this week, it is expected to continue to push up crude oil prices. Pay attention to adjusting the risk. If the crude oil price falls below 56 US dollars, the trend may continue downward.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

26050/26125 resistance

25780/25660 support

The Sino-US trade negotiations has made progress and the market is waiting for the next round of meeting this week. In addition, the Fed’s official dovish remarks boosted the market sentiment and the stock market made good. However, it is generally believed that the stock market may be adjusted before the Sino-US trade negotiations this week. Please pay attention!

 

BTCUSD:

3780  / 3580 support

3950 / 4100 resistance 

US Federal Reserve official said that if the US economy performs as expected, it is not necessary to raise interest rates during the year,the market expected the Fed is considering to stop interest rate hikes this year. The commentary is increasing the cryptocurrency market demand and now the dollar depreciation that will be pushed up the price of bitcoin. The first resistance at US3750 breakthrough, next will looking at 3950. If the fundamentals unchange, another is 4100 resistance.

 

Enjoy trading!  

The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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