Personal opinions today

 

The US announced that the consumer price index was moderate in February, and the market believes that the Fed’s interest rate hike that will remain cautious. At the same time, US inflation expectations are still lower than the current interest rate of 2.25%, the space for interest rate hikes is limited, and limited the dollar in short term growth. Earlier, it was reported that the Fed is still expected to consider raising interest rates at least once in the second half of the year. The US President also expects US economic growth in the US budget. Compared the other countries, they are currently no consideration of tightening monetary policy or raising interest rates, and the economic outlook is pessimistic, so investors generally support investment in dollar assets. If the US continues to maintain moderate economic growth and monetary policy tends to tighten, it is believed that the dollar can remain strong against major currencies.

 

The British parliamentarians vetoed the draft of the new Brexit agreement submitted by Prime Minister. Today, the British Parliament will discuss the second referendum issue and draft a postponement of the Brexit deadline, and vote for the final choice on Thursday afternoon. Brexit deadline is approaching less than three weeks, the UK faces a variety of anxiety and risks, which will bring different risks to the European currency. It is estimated that the European currency is likely to face downside risks. It means the pound has fallen from a high level and returned to 1.30. As risk aversion heats up, gold and the yen will likely be chased again. The price of gold first hit $1,300. If the European problem is approaching, can the Swiss franc become a safe haven for European currency, and it will be quoted at any time this week. It is recommended that pay attention to risk management, capital and position control.

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1300/1.1320 resistance

1.1250/1.1230 support

The euro zone will release industrial production data for January, and the market is expected to grow, with a bullish euro. US durable goods orders and production price index at night. The production price index is relatively important, and it is expected that prices will increase from last month, which is more bullish. It can be expected that in the early European trading hours, the performance of the euro is expected to be good, but after entering the US trading hours in the evening, if the dollar rises, the euro may be down. And at night, the euro may be affected by the Brexit news, and must pay attention to trading risks. Technically, the resistance of 1.1300 and 1.1320 is 85.2% and 100% of the recent rebound. If there is no breakthrough and weak, please refer to 1.1250 and 1.1230 support.

 

GBPUSD

1.3130/1.3150 resistance

1.3020/1.3000 support

Beijing time this morning, the British Parliament vetoed the new Brexit agreement. Before the vote, the pound volatility and closed down. It is expected that the pound will continue to face the downside risk. In the next two days, the UK will face the second Brexit referendum or postpone the Brexit deadline. It is expected that the pound will temporarily fall before the results are announced. Technically, 1.3020 is a water mark. Keep in mind that the current situation in Brexit deal, the volatility of the pound is widening, must be paid attention.

 

USDCHF 

1.0100/1.0125 resistance

1.0050/1.0025 support

The important US consumer price index is in line with expectations, the performance is moderate, the US dollar eases the strength, the Swiss franc is bullish, following the euro. The market expects the euro zone data growth in the evening and is also the reason for supporting the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar still has a chance to test the 1.0125 resistance against the Swiss franc, mainly for two reasons. The first risk of Brexit will increase. The second euro performance will be affected by the decline in the Eurozone data or the strong US economic data. The short-term Swiss franc is expected to remain strong, with reference to support at 1.0050 or 1.0025. It is recommended to pay attention to the Brexit deal and voting results, pay attention to the fluctuation of the Swiss franc.

 

USDJPY

111.35/111.45 resistance

110.85/110.70 support

In this evening, the US production price index is expected to grow, and negative the yen. The risk of Brexit in the short term may affect the US Dow and Japan's Nikkei index, respectively, and the USD/JPY has a chance to fall simultaneously. If the global stock market is tight, the USD/JPY will likely enter the 110 level again.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7080/0.7095 resistance

0.7050/0.7035 support

The Sino-US trade deal will continue to be discussed,  prospects of China-Australia trade and raised the Australian dollar. Yesterday the Australian dollar rebounded to 0.7090, which is higher than the expected rebound of 38.2%, but did not break the recent high of 0.7095. Of course, the performance of the US consumer price index last night was also related. At present, the US dollar is expected to remain strong, which may be negative the Australian dollar and pay attention to lowering the risk. The first target is 0.7050 and 0.7035.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6860/0.6875 resistance

0.6820/0.6805 support

Technically, the New Zealand dollar has rebounded, above 0.6860 for the recent high. The US consumer price index is moderate, and it is expected that US data will be more bullish dollars tonight. If the production price index rises sharply, it will likely expand the New Zealand dollar downward. Technically, 0.6820 and 0.6805 are reference support respectively.

 

USDCAD

1.3390/1.3410 resistance

1.3365/1.3345 support

US crude oil inventories fell sharply, and crude oil futures prices rebounded, with a bullish Canadian dollar. If the performance of the US production price index improves tonight, increasing the crude oil demand, and the opportunity for crude oil prices to rise again, it is expected to benefit the Canadian dollar. The USDCAD is expected to continue its downward trend. Technically, the first support as 1.3365 in the near future is expected to be extended. If crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD will likely break through the resistance of 1.3410.

 

EURGBP

0.8680/0.8720 resistance

0.8575/0.8530 support

Vetoed the Brexit deal, the pound fell, while the euro and the pound volatility. It is recommended to pay close attention to the news of Brexit and to dominate the trend in the pound, which will affect the sharp fluctuation of the EURGBP. When investing in the EURGBP, must pay attention to large fluctuations.

 

EURCHF 

1.1375/1.13590 resistance

1.1335/1.1310 support

Vetoed the new draft of Brexit. The market waited for the next two days in the UK to vote for the second referendum and postpone the Brexit. The outcome of the discussion was important, and it also affected the fluctuation of the EURCHF. Please pay attention.

 

XAUUSD 

1298/1296 support

1308/1310 resistance

US inflation data is moderate, and the Fed is expected to remain patience and delay the rate hike. In addition, the deadline for Brexit is imminent, risk sentiment on, pushing up the price of gold. Recently, here pointed out that it is impossible to lift the risk. It is estimated that the price of gold will probably rise to $1310. Now the market is facing the risk of Brexit and it is expected to approach this position. However, after the price of gold rises sharply, there is an opportunity to adjust. It is recommended that pay attention to the reverse risks.

 

US crude oil futures:

57.55/57.80 resistance

55.55/55.05 support

US retail sales growth was better than expected, US consumer price index increased, and crude oil prices. From the substantial reduction in the amount of crude oil inventories in the United States, the reason for the rise in crude oil prices can be found. The crude oil supplier plans to production cut, and the news will help support the the crude oil prices. Technically, focus on the 57.55 and 57.80 resistance, and the important support level can be noted within the $55.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25685/25760 resistance

25280/25105 support

Regardless of the growth of US economic data, but in the face of the risk of Brexit and time approaching, investment sentiment is nervous, it is estimated that it will continue to bear negative stock market performance. Technically, the US Dow is in the downward cycle and has the opportunity to test low support. In the short term, pay attention to important resistances, which are 25885 and 25960 respectively. Technically, the trend began to decline, it is recommended to lower the resistance level at the same time, respectively, 25685 and 25760 resistance.

 

BTCUSD:

3780  / 3680 support

3925 / 4050 resistance 

The US retail sale data improved, and the inflation data moderated, the dollar fell a bit that pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin seems supported around US3700. However the market still has not covered the confidence and interest to trade cryptocurrencies very much . Probably, US3925 and 4050 which are resistance.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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