ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.03.19
Personal opinions today
The House of Commons of the British Parliament will vote on the revised draft of the Brexit submitted by Prime Minister on Wednesday afternoon London time. However, if the new draft is the same as last week, the opposition members will veto again. Then, the Prime Minister will be required to extend the original deadline for the March 29 deadline to the European Parliament, and the relevant reasons must be submitted for the EU to accept the extension of the deadline application. If finally, the EU accept the application, the deadline may be postponed until June 30. By this uncertainty, the pound may be stabilize above 1.32. However, the draft was rejected and the EU did not accept the extension of Brexit. The UK was forced to leave the European Union within a time limit, which increased the chances of the pound falling.
Another focus this week is during Asian time, and the Fed announced the interest rate decision on Thursday morning. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but whether monetary policy and contraction time will change is the focus and affects the global economy and financial investment product prices. Before the market waits for the Fed to announce the content of the monetary policy meeting, it is estimated that the Fed does not intend to tighten monetary policy, the dollar trend has a weaker, may be bullish against the dollar's major currency and international gold price, and indirectly support the silver price and crude oil price rise.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1355/1.1370 resistance
1.1315/1.1300 support
The market is concerned about the results of the Eurozone economic sentiment index and the UK job data today. The market estimates are still weak and there is no significant growth. The euro has a downward adjustment. However, after the data is released, due to the Fed's monetary policy orientation, it may not only make the euro's downside limited, but also have a chance to rise. It is recommended to focus on the initial target of 1.1300 support and 1.1370 resistance in the short term.
GBPUSD
1.3285/1.3315 resistance
1.3240/1.3210 support
The British Parliament may veto the Prime Minister’s resubmission, and the EU may also veto Britain’s extension of the Brexit deadline and increase the risk of hard Brexit. Investors are expected to have psychological uncertainty and negative effects on the pound. Today, the UK publishes job data and tomorrow's Bank of England interest rate decision. These factors may fluctuate for the pound. Technically, refer to 1.3210 important support, 1.3315 important resistance.
USDCHF
1.0040/1.0055 resistance
1.0010/0.9985 support
The dollar is weak, the euro is rising, and the Swiss franc is supported. Technically, after the USDCHF reached 1.0025 to support the breakthrough, the USDCHF temporarily tested the 1.0010 or 0.9985 support level. In terms of technical trends, the Swiss franc is expected to remain strong, but it is recommended to keep abreast of the Brexit news, pay attention to the pound and euro fluctuations, it may believe that the trend of the pound and the euro will indirectly affect the Swiss franc. If USDCHF break the resistance of 1.0055, the dollar has a chance to rise against the Swiss franc.
USDJPY
111.50/111.65 resistance
111.15/110.90 support
The United Kingdom has a deadline to leave the European Union on March 29, and there is uncertainty. The Fed may stop shrinking or consider cut the interest rates in the future. Market risks may heat up, while the dollar weakens and the yen up opportunities. If, in the short term, the Sino-US trade deal has not seen progress, the US dollar fell against the yen, and the test was supported by 111.15 or 110.90.
AUDUSD
0.7115/0.7125 resistance
0.7070/0.7055 support
Inflation in the United States was moderate, the US dollar weaker, with a bullish Australian dollar. The short-term outlook of the market is to suspend the Fed to raise interest rates. The Sino-US trade deal results and supports the Australian dollar. Technically, if the Australian dollar is adjusted, it is expected to test 0.7070 support. If there is no breakthrough support, the Australian dollar has a chance to rise against the US dollar before the Fed’s interest rate decision.
NZDUSD
0.6870/0.6885 resistance
0.6835/0.6620 support
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are similar in pace and rhythm. If the Australian dollar maintains its upward momentum, it is believed that the New Zealand dollar may test resistance at 0.6885. If the New Zealand dollar remains below 0.6860, it is estimated that the market may not be able to rise. When the dollar regains its strength, it will likely reverse the recent trend of the New Zealand dollar and the negative New Zealand dollar. Technically, short-term reference can be made to 0.6835 and 0.6810 support.
USDCAD
1.3365/1.3385 resistance
1.3310/1.3290 support
The OPEC announced that it will maintain a production cut plan this year. On the Russian side, it also intends to extend the production reduction plan and announce the decision later in May. These messages support the rise in crude oil prices and indirectly benefit the Canadian dollar. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar can remain below 1.3365 in the adjustment wave, and the USDCAD is still expected to continue to fall. If the price of crude oil further rises, the USDCAD may test 1.3290 or 1.3275 support.
EURGBP
0.8520/0.8495 support
0.8575/0.8600 resistance
The British parliament vetoed the Brexit without agreement and extended the Brexit deadline. The pound strengthened and the euro down against the pound. At present, the technology is not changed. It is recommended to keep an eye on the news of Brexit and to dominate the trend in the pound, which will affect the fluctuation of the euro against the pound. When investing in the euro against the pound, you must pay attention to large fluctuations. Technically, it is temporarily estimated that the euro against the pound has a chance to consolidate at 0.8510 or 0.8475, and the market outlook is expected to test 0.8600 resistance.
EURCHF
1.1335/1.1310 support
1.1380/1.1395 resistance
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided, and this week the British Prime Minister submitted a new plan and the EU will extend the Brexit deadline. The EURCHF is currently at a range. Technically, the reference resistance and support can be made to the consolidation between 1.1335 or 1.1310.
XAUUSD
1306/1309 resistance
1301/1298 support
The market waits for the Fed interest rates decision on Thursday. The market estimates that the Fed will continue to loose monetary policy, which may stimulate the price of gold. Maybe test 1306 and 1309 resistance. If it break through the important resistance of 1310, the trend is expected to continue, and the resistance of 1315 is tested. At present, if the gold price trend is technically adjusted, the support level can refer to 1301 and 1298.
US crude oil futures:
59.25/59.50 resistance
58.15/57.75 support
Last week, the US API and EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply. The OPEC agreed to the production reduction plan and have already implemented it, which is the reason for the rise in crude oil prices. The market is waiting to announce the upcoming API and EIA crude oil inventory report tomorrow morning. The short-term may hinder the rise in crude oil prices. Technically, if the price adjustment can focus on 58.15 and 57.75 support, if the support is broken, look forward to the important support level, $56.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26005/26155 resistance
25830/25755 support
On Thursday morning Asia time, the Federal Reserve announced the results of the interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and it is also expected to benefit the US Dow. Technically, it has rebounded from the low point of the US Dow, and the important resistance 25885 has broken through in the short term. If the 25755 support can be maintained, the Dow trend is still expected to rise further. However, when the news of the Brexit vote in the British Parliament or the Sino-US trade deal uncertainty, the risk sentiment will heat up, which may affect the performance of the Dow. It is worthy of attention and attention to the adjustment of the Dow.
BTCUSD:
3780 / 3680 support
4050 / 4125 resistance
The US inflation data shown moderated, FOMC meeting coming this Thursday morning Asia time , the dollar fell that pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. Probably, US4050 and US 4125 will limited the price of bitcoin, maybe the price reversed after the FOMC meeting this week.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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