ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market update - 2019.03.20
Personal opinions today
The US President said that trade talks with China are progressing well last night and purpose signed an agreement at the end of April. The news boosts the US Dow. Before the announcement of the interest rate decision, investors will be cautious. The Dow fell 26 points to close market.
The House of Commons of the British Parliament will vote again on the newly revised draft of the Brexit submitted by Prime Minister, if the new draft is the same as last week, the opposition members will veto the draft again. The British Prime Minister must submit to the EU to postponed the deadline with the relevant reasons. If the EU accepts the UK to extend the deadline application, the deadline may be delayed until June 30. At present, the market remains on the sidelines. The trend of the British pound is similar to that of the previous day. It temporarily stabilized above 1.32, but was subject to 1.33 resistance. If the Brexit draft is vetoed tomorrow, and the EU does not accept the UK's postponement of Brexit, the UK may be forced to leave the European Union in the original deadline, which will increase the chance of the pound falling.
Today, the UK announced the February consumer price index and retail price index. The market expects a sharp increase from last month, which is expected to be 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. However, it is expected that UK industrial orders will fall, which may limit the pound's gains. Keep in mind that the Fed monetary policy decisions tomorrow, and the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. However, the monetary policy orientation is the focus of the market. In addition, it will be announced that the cessation of the debt reduction schedule is also one of the key points. If the policy and the downsizing schedule remain the same, the dollar will have a chance to rebound.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1375/1.1390 resistance
1.1335/1.1300 support
The results of the UK data today may indirectly affect the euro, but before the US Federal Reserve meeting and announcement that expected to limit the euro's rise. Technically, the resistance of 1.1375 and 1.1390 is currently the key. If the dollar strengthens then, the euro will have the opportunity to test the support below. Refer the targets 1.1335 and 1.1300.
GBPUSD
1.3285/1.3315 resistance
1.3240/1.3210 support
The British Parliament has the opportunity to veto the Prime Minister’s resubmission of the draft of Brexit. The EU may also veto Britain’s extension of the Brexit deadline and increase the risk of hard Brexit in the UK. Investors are expected to have uncertainty and negative effects on the pound. Today, the UK announced inflation and retail sales data. Tomorrow, the Bank of England monetary policy announcement, it will likely fluctuate for the pound. Technically, with reference to 1.3210 important support, 1.3315 continues to be an important resistance.
USDCHF
1.0040/1.0055 resistance
0.9985/0.9960 support
The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Technically, the USDCHF temporarily tested the 0.9985 support level. In terms of technical trends, the Swiss franc is expected to remain strong, but it is recommended to keep abreast of the Brexit news and the Fed's interest rate decision. During this period, pay attention to the fluctuation of the pound and the euro. The trend of the pound and the euro will indirectly affect the Swiss franc. If it break the resistance of 1.0055, the dollar has a chance to rise against the Swiss franc.
USDJPY
111.80/112.05 resistance
111.35/111.10 support
The Fed may stop shrinking or consider cutting interest rates in the future. Market risks have warmed up, the dollar has weakened, and the yen has risen before the Fed’s interest rate decision is coming. Subsequently, the US President said that the Sino-US trade agreement has made progress and it is expected that the agreement will be signed at the end of April, the stock market will rise, and the US dollar will make a good against the yen. At present, attention, 111.80 or 112.05 resistance, after the Fed's interest rate decision, will likely test 111.35 or 111.10 support.
AUDUSD
0.7085/0.7105 resistance
0.7050/0.7035 support
The Reserve Bank of Australia said that the economic outlook remains pessimistic and the Australian dollar is strongly tempered. In addition, the market looks forward to the Fed's interest rate in the short-term, Sino-US trade results, and believes that the Australian dollar will be supported in the short term. Technically, if the Australian dollar is adjusted, it is expected to test 0.7050 and 0.7035 support. If there is no breakthrough support.
NZDUSD
0.6860/0.6875 resistance
0.6815/0.6790 support
The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are in similar trend, and it is believed that the short-term New Zealand dollar is likely to remain. Before the Fed’s interest rate meeting announced the results, the New Zealand dollar may remain below 0.6860, and the uptrend is weak. If the dollar regains its strength, it will likely reverse the recent trend of the New Zealand dollar and the negative New Zealand dollar. Technically, short-term reference can be made to 0.6815 or 0.6790 support.
USDCAD
1.3365/1.3385 resistance
1.3310/1.3290 support
This year, OPEC will maintain its production reduction plan. On the Russian side, it also intends to extend the production reduction plan, and announced its in May. In addition, crude oil inventories continue to decrease, supporting crude oil prices. Crude oil prices have continued to rise, indirectly benefiting the Canadian dollar. Technically, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar can remain below 1.3365 in the adjustment wave, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar is still expected to continue to fall. If the price of crude oil further rises, the USDCAD may test 1.3290 or 1.3275 support. However, after the Fed’s interest rate decision, the Canadian dollar may be downward .
EURGBP
0.8520/0.8495 support
0.8575/0.8600 resistance
The British Parliament may veto the latest Brexit draft today, and the market expects the UK to apply for an extension of the Brexit deadline. If the news continues, it is expected that the pound will continue to strengthen, the euro down against the pound. At present, the technology is not changed. It is recommended to keep an eye on the news of Brexit and to dominate the trend in the pound, which will affect the fluctuation of the euro against the pound. When investing in the euro against the pound, must pay attention. Technically, it is tentatively estimated that the euro has a chance to consolidate between 0.8520 and 0.8495 against the pound, and the market is expected to test 0.8600 resistance.
EURCHF
1.1335/1.1310 support
1.1380/1.1395 resistance
The Brexit incident has temporarily subsided. Today the British Prime Minister will submit a new proposal to the British Parliament to vote and may apply to the EU for an extension of the Brexit deadline. The euro against the Swiss franc is currently consolidating and fluctuating in a narrow range. Technically, can be refer to the support between 1.1335 or 1.1310 support points. However, it must be noted that the downtrend continues. If the downside of 1.1310 is supported, a stop loss should be considered.
XAUUSD
1309/1311 resistance
1301/1298 support
The market is waiting for the Fed to raise interest rates. The market estimates that the Fed will continue its current loose monetary policy, which has stimulated the rise in gold prices and challenged the previous high of $1311. In addition, the Brexit vote on the vote, the deadline for the Brexit can be extended, there are risks, are bullish the gold prices. If the risk sentiment heats up, it will break through $1311 again, and the trend is expected to continue. The target of the test is reference to the resistance of 1315 and 1318. At present, if the gold price trend is doing technically adjusted, the support level can refer to 1301 and 1298.
US crude oil futures:
59.45/59.80 resistance
58.15/57.75 support
US API and EIA continued to reduce crude oil inventories last week, and OPEC and other related countries respectively supported production reduction plans, which became the reason for the rise in crude oil prices. The market waits for the Fed's monetary policy, and short-term the crude oil prices ease the gains. If the Fed keeps tightening monetary policy, there is a chance that crude oil prices will be lowered. Technically, if the price adjustment, it can focus on 58.15 and 57.75 support, if the support is broken, look forward to the important support level, $56.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26005/26115 resistance
25755/25670 support
The Fed will announce the interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and it is also expected to benefit the US Dow. But on the eve of the meeting, the investment was prudent and the Dow slowed down. Technically, if the Dow remains above 25,755, the trend is expected to keep rising. At present, the uncertainty of the Brexit vote in the British Parliament and the progress of Sino-US trade talk, risk sentiment can affect the performance of the Dow, it is worthy of attention, it is recommended to keep an eye on the Dow adjustment.
BTCUSD:
3780 / 3680 support
4050 / 4125 resistance
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting coming , the dollar used to fell then pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. However, US4050 and US 4125 will limited the price of bitcoin, maybe the price reversed after the FOMC meeting this week anytime.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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