ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.03.22
Personal opinions today
Japan’s national consumer price index and core consumer price index growth in February, but was lower than market expectations. As the growth rate is lower than the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2%, the market think the Bank of Japan will continue to maintain the current quantitative easing policy. Compared the average inflation rate in the United States at 1.5%, much higher than a Japan. It is estimated that the USD/JPY is still strong.
In the afternoon, the Eurozone announce the current account and the March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. The related French and German manufacturing purchasing managers' index will be announced before the release of data in the Eurozone and can be used as a reference and may be reflected in advance. In the evening, the Canadian retail sales and consumer price index such the inflation data which was expected to grow. If the inflation data does not exceed market expectations, it is believed that the Canadian dollar has chance to fall. Then, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, wholesale sales and existing home sales, are worthy of attention and have a certain degree of impact on the dollar's movements. In addition, the British Prime Minister on behalf of the United Kingdom submitted an extension to the European Union to extend the Brexit deadline, the results may be announced tonight in Asia time, please stay pay attention.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1395/1.1415 resistance
1.1340/1.1320 support
The market digested the Fed’s interest rate is expected to stop raising interest rates this year, and the Brexit time extension is uncertain. Both made the euro fell and reaches expected target 1.1370 support. The current trend of the pound may indirectly affect the euro. If good news boosts the pound, the euro is expected to rise. Technically, it is expected to the 1.14 level. Conversely, the euro will test below 1.13.
GBPUSD
1.3165/1.3200 resistance
1.3070/1.3045 support
The UK applied to the extension of the Brexit deadline and accepted by the European Union. If the British Parliament to pass the Brexit deal next week can be postponed until May 22. Otherwise, the agreement will be vetoed and the UK will leave the EU on April 12 without deal. It is expected to continue to be affected by the Brexit news in the short term and will likely affect the sterling volatility. If the British Parliament accepts Brexit, the time can be postponed and the room for the pound to rise and larger. On the contrary, it will fall. Next week is the last time the British Parliament voted before the deadline and should be paying attention to the risks when investing.
USDCHF
0.9960/0.9980 resistance
0.9905/0.9885 support
The euro fell, indirectly negative for the Swiss franc. Technically, the USDCHF has risen at the expected target of 0.9985, but it has not changed the Swiss franc and is expected to remain strong, as the euro is still performing well. Please pay attention to the news of the Brexit, the impact on the Swiss franc indirectly.
USDJPY
110.55/110.35 support
110.95/111.25 resistance
Japan’s inflation remains moderate, and the Fed expects to stop raising interest rates this year, offsetting each other’s shocks, and the dollar remains at 110 levels against the yen. If the US Dow moves higher in the future, Japan's Nikkei index will rise, and it is estimated that the USD/JPY trend will rise simultaneously. Currently concerned, 110.55 and 110.35 support. Whether the performance of the market can test the resistance of 110.95 and 111.25 depends on the performance of the global stock market, with particular attention to whether the US Dow can rise.
AUDUSD
0.7115/0.7130 resistance
0.7085/0.7070 support
Recently, the unemployment rate in Australia has risen, and the price of industrial metals has fallen. This has caused the Australian dollar to stop and adjust, and the adjustment has exceeded 50% of the adjustment. At present, the market is concerned about Sino-US trade deal news, the progress of negotiations, and affects the trend of the Australian dollar. Technically, the Australian dollar still has adjustments. After the expected test of 0.7110 support, further test 0.7070. Of course, if any good news to boost the Australian dollar, it will be able to look at 0.7130 or above.
NZDUSD
0.6915/0.6930 resistance
0.6880/0.6860 support
The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are similar, but New Zealand's economic fundamentals are better than the Australian economy. The New Zealand dollar can maintain 0.6860 or above. Technically, short-term reference can be made to 0.6915 and 0.6930 resistance.
USDCAD
1.3375/1.3395 resistance
1.3335/1.3315 support
Today, the market expects Canada's retail sales and consumer price index to grow, which is expected and reflect on the Canadian dollar. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices. If crude oil prices is lowered, the Canadian dollar may also fall. Technically, 1.3255 is an important support, and 1.3430 is an important resistance for reference.
EURGBP
0.8685/0.8715 resistance
0.8590/0.8565 support
Before the UK applied for an extension of the Brexit deadline, the pound fell and the euro rose against the pound, seeing 0.8718. The EU's approval of the UK's extension of the Brexit application is also good news, but the key is that the British Parliament needs to accept the deal in next week before it can be extended. Therefore, we must pay attention to the fluctuation of the EURGBP.
EURCHF
1.1265/1.1245 support
1.1300/1.1325 resistance
The euro fell further against the Swiss franc, indirectly affected by the fall of the pound. Technically, refer to the support between 1.1265 or 1.1245. If the support below 1.1245 is broken, the trend may further test 1.1190 important support.
XAUUSD
1306/1303 support
1314/1317 resistance
The UK has applied for an extension of the Brexit deadline, but it must be accepted by the Brexit deal next week. It can be extended to May 22. Otherwise, the Brexit without agreement began on April 12. If market and economic risks rise, gold prices will likely rise further. the gold prices could be volatile before on Brexit vote.
US crude oil futures:
60.35/60.60 resistance
59.35/58.80 support
The Fed maintains its existing monetary policy and plans to stop raising interest rates this year. The news will help boost crude oil prices, but whether it can continue to rise, need to consider other economic and crude oil supply factors. And pay attention to whether the US president will criticize the crude oil price is too high so that crude oil prices fall. Technically, if the price adjustment can focus on 59 and 58 support separately, if it breaks the support of $58, look forward to the test to $56.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26035/26115 resistance
25880/25775 support
The Fed will announce the interest rate decision, the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, and expects interest rates to remain unchanged this year. The news will help the investment climate. In addition, the British Parliament revote on the Brexit and the progress of Sino-US trade consultations, risk sentiment can affect the performance of the Dow, it is worthy of attention, it is recommended to keep an eye on the Dow adjustment. Technically, if the resistance of 26115 is not successfully broken, there is still a possibility of adjustment.
BTCUSD:
3780 / 3680 support
4050 / 4125 resistance
The Fe announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year , the dollar fell then pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep supported between US3780 and US3680. However, US4050 and US 4125 will limited the price ofbitcoin before anytime break the resistance.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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