Personal opinions today

 

The  US Treasury bonds yield has been upside down. The short-term three-month bond yield rate is higher than the 10-year bond yield rate. It is expected that the US economy will likely going to the recession. But Fed officials and Goldman Sachs said that the short-term and long-term bond yields are upside down, only reflecting the Fed’s monetary policy plan to stop raising interest rates, but the US economy is recovering, inflation is still growing, and the chances of a recession are expected to be low. There is no need to worry about the market, it will soon be resolved. The United States will release final data such as actual GDP, actual personal consumption expenditure and core PCE price index in the fourth quarter tomorrow. If it showed growth, it may change the market view. The US yield rate returns to normal, and the US dollar is bullish.

 

This afternoon, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a speech at the public meeting, and the market is watching whether he will express his views on European economic and monetary policy. Next, the US announced the trade account and current account at night. If there is improvement, shown the US economy will improve and it is expected to positive the US dollar. Canadian dollar investors can pay attention to the Canadian trade accounts tonight at same time.

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1245/1.1230 support

1.1305/1.1320 resistance

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered a speech at the public meeting coming this afternoon, and the market is watching whether he will express his views on European economic and monetary policy. If the president is optimistic about the European economy, it is expected to end the recent decline in the euro. Short-term focus on initial support at 1.1245 and 1.1230 and resistance at 1.1305 and 1.1320.

 

GBPUSD

1.3220/1.3235 resistance

1.3155/1.3140 support

The EU extended the Brexit deadline to be accepted, avoiding the risk of a hard Brexit on March 29. However, the problem unresolved. The House of Commons of the British Parliament passed the resolution of the Brexit by the Congress, deliberately lifting the responsibility of the British Prime Minister and forcing the Prime Minister to step down. In front of the Brexit uncertainty, it means that the pound is at risk of falling. Technically, 1.3290 is an important resistance, with short-term resistance of 1.3220 and 1.3235. If the resistance is maintained, it seems bearish on pound. Initial short-term support is 1.3155 and 1.3140. The next level of support is 1.3095.

 

USDCHF 

0.9955/0.9975 resistance

0.9905/0.9885 support

The euro continued to be weak, indirectly negative for the Swiss franc. However, the Brexit issue mainly affects the European currency Euro and pound. The Swiss Franc temporarily becomes a safe place for Euro and pound, and the Swiss Franc is stronger than these currencies. Technically, the USDCHF is expected to have a resistance target of 0.9975. If the resistance breaks through 0.9975, the dollar may rise against the Swiss franc. In addition, short-term reference support is 0.9905 and 0.9885.

 

USDJPY

110.75/111.00 resistance

110.25/110.00 support

After the Fed explained that the US bond yields were upside down, market investment stabilized, and the US Dow and Japan’s Nikkei index rose, boosting the dollar against the yen, which once saw a high of 110.65. The market is concerned the GDP, real income and PCE index tomorrow. In the short-term, the USDJPY is expected to limit the resistance of 110.75 and 111.00. In addition, the risk of Brexit increases, the risk aversion is heating up, and the global stock market may fall, which indirectly drags the dollar against the yen to fall simultaneously. Please keep pay attention.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7125/0.7140 resistance

0.7055/0.7040 support

The industrial metals price rose, which is positive for the Australian dollar. However, in the morning, it was indirectly affected by the dovish speech of the RBNZ. The AUDUSD was fell. At present, it is worth noting that there has been no further progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the slowdown in Australia's economic worries will negative the Australian dollar. The market is more concerned about the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision next week, and may issue dovish remarks same as RBNZ today, which may be further negative for the Australian dollar. In the short-term technical, the Australian dollar can continue to refer to the resistance of 0.7125 and 0.7140. Target support for the next week, see 0.7055 and 0.7040 support.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6805/0.6790 support

0.6840/0.6855 resistance

New Zealand's economic fundamentals are better than the Australian economy, but today the RBNZ issued a dovish remarks, the New Zealand dollar quickly fell by a hundred points, in line with this analysis yesterday. Technically, the NZD decline has already reflected the factors, and the support level can refer to 0.6805 and 0.6790. Resistance levels can be referenced to 0.6840 and 0.6855 resistance.

 

USDCAD

1.3420/1.3440 resistance

1.3375/1.3360 support

Crude oil prices fell and the Canadian dollar slowed down. Technically, the USD/CAD adjustment wave has been tested near the 1.3370 support level. If crude oil prices continue to fall, it is estimated that the USDCAD may test the 1.3420 and 1.3440 resistance. The Canadian trade account with US data tonight and the market keeps concerned that.

 

XAUUSD 

1321/1323 resistance

1315/1313 support

The US short-term and long-term government bond yields are out of balance, and the market is worried about the US economic recession and is delaying the imbalance of global bond yields. In addition, the Brexit issue has not yet been finalized, there is risk, and the gold prices has risen. The market is waiting to see a number of important data from today and tomorrow, and the final value of the fourth quarter GDP in the United States is very important. If the final value of US GDP unexpectedly increases, it will positive the US dollar and bearish gold. Technically, short-term attention is paid to the resistance of 1321 and 1323. The market expects an increase in risk, and the gold price increases. On the contrary, the price of gold fell.

 

US crude oil futures:

60.05/60.30 resistance

58.65/58.05 support

Crude oil inventories announced by US API increased, reporting 1.93 million barrels, and crude oil prices fell slightly to below $60. The risk of Brexit has not yet been lifted, and the Sino-US trade negotiations keep going but not. Very good. These are all bearish crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are still have chance to reach $58. Technically, in the short-term reference resistance of $60.05 and $60.30, with reference to support for 58.65 and 58.05.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

25835/25905 resistance

25430/25350 support

After the Fed officials explained that the US Treasury yield was upside down, the investment market risk cool down. In addition, crude oil prices rose, supporting the Dow's rise. Due to the uncertainties of the Brexit and the lack of progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, the risk sentiment affected the performance of the Dow and the Dow adjusted before the market closed. The market is waiting the results of important economic data of the United States in the next two days, especially the final value of the fourth quarter US GDP announced tomorrow is very important. Assuming that before the results are announced, the Dow will be limited in rebound. For short-term, it may refer to the 25430 and 25350 support.

 

BTCUSD:

4050 /  4125 resistance 

3780  / 3680 support

The Fed announced the interest rate decision, the Fed will keep interest rates this year , the dollar value fell then pushed up the price of bitcoin. The bitcoin keep the support between US3780 and US3680 and the resistance US4050 and US 4125, until any breakthrough.

 

Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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