ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.04.03
Personal opinions today
The Chinese Minister of Commerce visited Washington and conducted the ninth round of Sino-US trade deals with the US Secretary of Commerce. The market expects this consultation to further resolve and achieve results, driving the stock market of China and the United States to rise. Offshore RMB and Asia Pacific currencies all positive.
Today, the market is mainly concerned with the February retail sales in the Eurozone and the US ADP employment change in March. The US ADP employment change is very important, the data will reflect the US non-farm payrolls expectations on Friday. The dollar and global stock market movements for the next two days will follow the sentiment. In the evening tonight, the US Markit service industry PMI and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in March are also worthy of attention, it can be changed the market and the dollar sentiment in the short term.
[Finance data and events of concern]
1 09:45 China Caixi services PMI (March)
2 15:55 German service industry PMI final value (March)
3 16:00 Eurozone service industry PMI final value (March)
4 16:30 UK Service PMI (March)
5 17:00 Eurozone retail sales monthly rate (February)
6 20:15 US ADP employment change (March)
7 21:45 US Markit service industry PMI final value (March)
8 22:00 US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (March)
9 22:30 EIA crude oil inventories
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1235/1.1250 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Eurozone retail sales in February and US March ADP employment change may drive euro volatility. The market expects the eurozone retail sales in February to rise slightly to 2.3%, which is expected to be bullish euro. If the number of ADP employment change exceeds the expected 170,000, it is expected that the US dollar will strongly and the euro will be negative. Technically, the reference support 1.1185. If the US dollar is stronger, the euro may test 1.1170 or below. Reference resistance refer to 1.1250. On the other hand, if the British Parliament gives any good news on the Brexit, for example, the Brexit deadline can be extended, the euro can also take the opportunity to rise further and test the resistance at 1.1270.
GBPUSD
1.3145/1.3170 resistance
1.3075/1.3050 support
The British Parliament vetoed to leave the European Union and the Brexit agreement unknown, it will become an important focus and affect the volatility of the pound. If the British Prime Minister requests an extension of the deadline succeeded, it is expected that the pound will have the opportunity to move to the 1.32 or 1.33. Otherwise, the UK will start to leave the EU without agreement on the day of April 12, and the pound will test the level of 1.3020 or below. Short-term technical support can refer to 1.3075 and 1.3050.
USDCHF
1.0025/1.0055 resistance
0.9950/0.9930 support
The euro rebounded at a low level and the Swiss franc also followed. Before release the US ADP employment change data, the Swiss franc still follows the euro. At present, the USDCHF around 0.9975. If the US dollar rises against the Swiss franc, the reference resistance is 1.0025 and 1.0055. The reference support revisions are 0.9950 and 0.9930.
USDJPY
111.55/111.70 resistance
111.05/110.90 support
Waiting for the US ADP data, the Dow continued to rise, and Japan’s Nikkei index was high, indirectly supporting the rise of the USDJPY. Technically, the USDJPY hit a 138.2% rebound and is expected to test the upper resistance at 111.55 and 111.70. If global stock markets continue to rise, it is expected to hit resistance. It is recommended to pay close attention to the performance of the US data, while paying attention to the dynamics of the Dow and Japan's Nikkei index to help observe the trend of the USDJPY.
AUDUSD
0.7080/0.7060 support
0.7125/0.7140 resistance
The market expects the progress in Sino-US trade negotiations, and high-level officials meeting. The market hope to implement the trade agreement between the two countries and boost the Australian dollar. If the market sentiment good, the Australian dollar is expected good as well. Technically, 0.7080 and 0.7060 are preliminary support for references, with resistances of 0.7125 and 0.7140. The success or failure of Sino-US trade will become a fluctuation. It is recommended to refer to the trend of offshore RMB to judge the market sentiment.
NZDUSD
0.6805/0.6820 resistance
0.6745/0.6730 support
The China-US trade negotiations in Washington State, the United States, the market is expected to have a good result, is expected to boost the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the NZD support can refer to 0.6745 and 0.6730. Resistance levels can be referenced to 0.6805 and 0.6820. The success or failure of Sino-US trade will become a fluctuation of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. It is recommended to refer to the trend of offshore RMB to judge the market sentiment.
USDCAD
1.3370/1.3385 resistance
1.3300/1.3280 support
The increase in the volume of US crude oil inventories has risen more than expected, affecting the performance of crude oil prices. However, the OPEC plan to reduce the supply of crude oil, keep crude oil prices up, and indirectly support the Canadian dollar. The short-term impact of the Canadian dollar is believed to be the US ADP employment change and non-farm payrolls. It is recommended that the USDCAD be limited to 1.3300 and 1.3280 support before the release of the data. Technically, the important support level is 1.3250. 1.3370 and 1.3385 are reference resistance.
XAUUSD
1295/1298 resistance
1289/1286 support
The market is waiting the US job data. Today, the number of ADP employment change will be announced, which may affect the gold prices. Technically, the gold price remained below the resistance of $1,303. The gold price can refer to the support level of 1280.55 US dollars by the Fibonacci. The market is observing US job data and the Brexit, then assessing market risks and determining the gold price direction. According to estimates, the gold price may between the 1285 and 1282 support levels. In the short team assessments, 1289 and 1286 as the support levels and reference resistance is 1295 and 1298.
US crude oil futures
63.15/63.85 resistance
62.20/61.75 support
The US and China manufacturing PMl index showed growth. The ninth trade negotiations between China and the United States officially began today, increasing crude oil demand expectations. In addition, OPEC indicated that plans to reduce crude oil supply also boosted crude oil prices. However, the US announced the API crude oil inventories increased significantly. The increase in crude oil prices may be limited and there is an opportunity to adjust the crude oil price. Today suggested, focusing on the US ADP employment change, if lower than market expectations, may affect the recent crude oil price trend.
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
26275/26360 resistance
26114/25905 support
The US Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting the two months high of 26,240, may be due to Sino-US trade negotiations and is expected to be successful. However, the results of the negotiations have not been implemented, and the US job data is released soon, which may affect the market sentiment. If the Dow Jones Industrial Index futures will fall. The preliminary technical support levels can be referenced to 26114 and 25905, or refer to 25770. For resistance, now refer to 26275 and 26360.
BTCUSD:
5000 / 5200 resistance
4660 / 4500 support
The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose, Bitcoin breakthroughs USD4235 resistance and approaching USD5000. The market is waiting for the US job data tonight and Friday. If the US job data over the market expectations, please pay attention to the bitcoin price fall.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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