Personal opinions today 

 

Eurozone February retail sales better than expected. The US March private sector's ADP employment change and US March lSM non-manufacturing (services) PMl slightly less than market expectations, and the US dollar fell below 97.0. The US data was not as expected, the euro data improved and the Brexit have made new progress, and the euro and the pound all rose respectively. The gold price around USD1290 . Crude oil inventories rose and crude oil prices fell.

 

The Minister of Commerce of China and the US Secretary of Commerce continued the Sino-US trade negotiations continue and processing well. It is expected that they reach the final results before the weekend, and then stopped the Sino-US trade war. Positive trends in the global stock market, Offshore renminbi and Asia-Pacific currency rose. The stronger investment climate, with funds flowing out of gold and yen. The market is waiting the US March non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average wages results tomorrow.

 

[Finance data and events of concern]

14:00 German manufacturing orders

15:30 German construction industry PMl

19:30 US March Challenger Corporate layoffs

19:30 ECB minutes of March monetary policy meeting

20:30 US initial claiming unemployment

 

* China and Hong Kong holidays tomorrow, this analysis will be suspended one day, see you next Monday. 

 

Today's suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1280/1.1310 resistance

1.1215/1.1175 support

Eurozone retail sales growth, US ADP employment change, less than 170,000, the dollar fell, bullish euros. The market waits for the European Central Bank to announce the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting, which includes the central bank's economic outlook and monetary policy intention. If the dovish remarks are emphasized again, the euro may fall. Technically, the EUR/USD resistance is referenced at 1.1280 and 1.1310, with support at 1.1215 and 1.1175. The market expected the US job data tomorrow, not very good, it could be bullish euro.

 

GBPUSD

1.3200/1.3225 resistance

1.3120/1.3070 support

The British Parliament provided a draft amendment and it still has not been passed. The British Prime Minister put forward new proposals to retain the customs union alliance after the general acceptance of the parliamentarians, and to discuss with the EU to postpone the Brexit in order to cooperate with the EU countries. However, the Bank of England Governor and the European Commission have indicated that they will not extend the deadline next Friday. They will officially start the UK without a contract after midnight on the evening of April 12, UK time, that is, "hard Brexit", making the pound have a risk of falling. Short-term technical support can refer to 1.3120 and 1.3070. Further trials below 1.30 will depend on the risk of hard Brexit.

 

USDCHF 

1.0025/1.0055 resistance

0.9950/0.9930 support

The US ADP employment change is not as expected, and the non-farm payrolls data on Friday is expected poor. The US dollar is weakening, making the Swiss franc trend better. At present, the USDCHF now is between 0.9975. If the US dollar rises against the Swiss franc, the reference resistance is 1.0025 and 1.0055. If the US dollar continues to fall, the reference support is revised to 0.9950 and 0.9930.

 

USDJPY

111.55/111.85 resistance

111.05/110.90 support

US ADP data results lower than market expectations, the dollar fell, but did not affected the yen. The main reason for the flow of funds to the stock market, the Dow continued to rise, and the Japanese Nikkei index was at a high level, indirectly supporting the rise of the USDJPY. Technically, USDJPY continues to test the upper resistance at 111.55 and 111.85. If global stock markets continue to rise, it is expected to hit 11.85 resistance. It is recommended to pay close attention to the performance of the US data, while paying attention to the dynamics of the Dow and Japan's Nikkei, and observe the trend of the USDJPY.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7140/0.7165 resistance

0.7080/0.7060 support

The Australian Service Industry Performance Index, retail sales and trade accounts have grown, which is bullish for the Australian dollar. Coupled with the US job data performance did not meet market expectations, the Australian dollar rebounded against the US dollar. In addition, the market expects progress in Sino-US trade negotiations to boost the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar was raised against the US dollar as much as 80 pips. This is the second largest rebound in recent months. Technically, 0.7125 and 0.7140 are reference points for resistance, which is close to the resistance range indicated by this analysis yesterday. Can AUD make further breakthroughs, and it must pay attention to the success or failure of Sino-US trade negotiations.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6805/0.6820 resistance

0.6775/0.6745 support

Sino-US trade negotiations were held in Washington, DC, and the negotiations was good, boosting the New Zealand dollar. In addition, Australia's economic data growth, indirectly bullish the New Zealand dollar, support level increased from 0.6745 to 0.6775. The resistance level reference 0.6805 and 0.6820 still have not changed. Now, the success or failure of Sino-US trade negotiations. On the other hand, how the performance of US job data affects the US dollar. These factors will complement the volatility of the NZDUSD.

 

USDCAD

1.3370/1.3385 resistance

1.3300/1.3280 support

US crude oil inventories increased, and the increase was much higher than expected, affecting the performance of crude oil prices, which indirectly bearish the Canadian dollar. The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls, and it is more important to pay attention to the performance of job data released in Canada at the same time tomorrow. Technically, the USDCAD has an important support at 1.3300, with reference to resistance at 1.3370 and 1.3385.

 

XAUUSD 

1295/1298 resistance

1289/1286 support

The US ADP employment change was less than expected. Tomorrow, the US non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and the average wage, all result will become the market focus, which may affect the gold prices and fluctuation. Technically, the gold price remained below the resistance of $1,303. The adjustment of wave, gold price can refer to the support level of 1280.55 US dollars. In addition, the risk of hard Brexit in the UK will determine the trend of gold price. According to preliminary estimates, the gold price is between the 1285 and 1282 support levels, which is an important reference. Short-term technically, focus on 1289 and 1286 support levels and 1295 and 1298 resistance as a reference.

 

US crude oil futures

62.85/63.15 resistance

62.05/61.60 support

The US announced last week that API and ElA crude oil inventories increased significantly, and crude oil price fell a bit. The US ADP employment change, did not meet market expectations, which could be other negative crude oil prices. If the non-farm payrolls data is not as expected, the crude oil price could be fall further, and the initial target of 61.60 will be supported.

 

US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30

26305/26365 resistance

26130/26055 support

The US Dow Jones Industrial Index is between the two-month high of 26,240. It is believed that the market expects Sino-US trade to be successful. However, the results of the negotiations have still not been implemented. The US job data is not looking good, and the price of crude oil has fallen, affecting the shares of related companies, which may affect the market investment sentiment. The preliminary technical support levels can refer to 26130 and 26055, and further target can refer to 25770. For resistance, refer to 26365.

 

BTCUSD:

5050 / 5200 resistance

4660 / 4500 support

The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose, Bitcoin breakthroughs USD4235 resistance and approaching USD5050. The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data. If the US job data over the market expectations, the bitcoin price will fall.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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