Personal opinions today

U.S. February non-farm payrolls were revised up to 33,000 and returned to normal at 196,000 in March, beating market expectations for 180,000. Crude Oil prices rose to a 22-week high above $63, caused higher demand rose. But the average hourly wage rate fell to just 0.1 percent in monthly change and 3.2 percent in yearly, representing a broad slowdown in U.S. wage growth that limited the dollar's gains and gold prices rebounded above $1,290. On Wednesday, the results of the U.S. March CPl and the core CPl will be watched, with data helping to reflect U.S. first-quarter inflation and the fed's chances of raising interest rates. On Thursday, FOMC released the minutes of its March 20 policy meeting.

 

[Important data and events today]

14:00 Germany Trade account in February

14:00 Germany Current account in February

16:30 Eurozone Investment sentiment index for April

22:00 US factory orders in February

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1235/1.1250 resistance

1.1190/1.1170 support

U.S. CPl data released and European central bank interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday. ECB and the President speech, become the focus of the market. We believe that the coming risks of a hard Brexit, it will add to the economic uncertainty in Europe. The eurozone could be exposed to the downside risks as the UK. If the euro fell, the support at 1.1185. If the euro could further test lower, 1.0860 as the reference support which is the 2-year adjustment wave of 76.4 percent. In short-term resistance is 1.1250.

 

GBPUSD 

1.3070/1.3120 resistance

1.3000/1.2950 support

UK step in a critical moment with the Brexit deadline on coming Friday if the house of Commons maintains its opposition to the Brexit deal and its veto of a deal with the EU. The EU is also likely to veto the Brexit extension. UK time on April 12, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union without an agreement and caused turmoil in the European market, it may increase the risk of pound decline. Now, the expected initial target resistance as 1.3070 and 1.3120 are supported by 1.3000 and 1.2950 or below.

 

USDCHF 

1.0015/1.0030 resistance

0.9975/0.9960 support

The dollar against the Swiss franc support revised to 0.9975 and 0.9960 if the dollar falls. Expectations are that the market is watching the results of the U.S. March CPl and core CPl, with the dollar likely to move in a tight range against the Swiss franc in the short term.

 

USDJPY 

111.85/112.00 resistance

111.25/111.05 support

China's commerce minister and finished the ninth round of china-us trade talks. The two sides said the process is going well and that some details will be finalized later. The positive negotiation process has supported the rise of the stock markets in China and the global stock market and has created favourable conditions for offshore China RMB and currencies in the Asia-pacific region. The market is closely watching the stock market dynamics, if the stock market further downward, USDJPY may follow and fall. But technically, the psychological resistance of the USDJPY as 112. In the short term, it can refer to 111.85 and 112.00 resistance, support level refer to 111.25 and 111.05.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7110/0.7125 resistance

0.7070/0.7055 support

After the conclusion of china-us trade negotiations, the overall progress is good, but the two sides still have not decided when to end the trade war, and the trend of the Australian dollar has changed. Technically, 0.7110 and 0.7125 are the reference resistance levels. If there is good news to boost the AUD, it is expected to further test the resistance of 0.7165 or 0.7205. But the AUD is likely to move in a tight range against the greenback in the short term until the market looks at the U.S. March CPl and core CPl results.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6755/0.6775 resistance

0.6720/0.6700 support

China and the United States concluded trade talks, but the two sides did not set a deadline. NZDUSD may happen to adjust. Technically, the reference resistance was 0.6755 and 0.6775. Reference support is 0.6720 and 0.6700 until the U.S. march CPl and core CPl results are seen.

 

USDCAD

1.3395/1.3415 resistance

1.3350/1.3330 support

The Canadian dollar fell as the dollar strengthened caused the stronger U.S. jobs report. In addition, the U.S. crude oil price performance made good, indirect good Canadian dollar. The market watches the results of the U.S. march CPl and core CPl, it could affect the USD stronger against the Canadian dollar.

 

XAUUSD 

1300/1303 resistance

1292/1289 support

U.S. non-farm payrolls returned to normal in March, but the average hourly wage rate fell to just 0.1 percent monthly and 3.2 percent annual growth, representing a broad slowdown in wage growth in March that limited the dollar's gains. Gold rallied above $1,290. Moreover, gold prices will be determined by the risk of a hard Brexit. Technically, the price of gold remained below $1,303 resistance volatility, adjusted wave support, gold prices can refer to $1,280.55. But with the risk heat up, gold prices should bullish. As a suggestion, gold prices are consolidating between 1292 and 1289 support levels. Reference resistance 1300 and 1303.

 

U.S. crude oil futures

63.85/64.15 resistance

63.05/62.85 support

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls returned to normal in March, boosting crude oil prices. The market is waiting for the U.S. march CPl and core CPl results and the API and EIA crude inventories update released on Wednesday. During the period, crude oil prices have a chance to test the initial target of $62.85 support or below.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26480/26565 resistance

26130/26055 support

The Dow Jones industrial average over a two-month high of 26,240 on expectations of successful Sino-US trade negotiations. However, the outcome of the negotiations has still not been implemented, the market investment climate has turned cautious, and the trend of the U.S. Dow is an adjustment. The initial support is 26130 and 26055. In terms of resistance level, and refer to Friday's high of 26480 or above 26565 resistance level.

 

BTCUSD:

5050 / 5200 resistance

4660 / 4500 support

The Brexit risk is leading the bitcoin price rose, but the US non-farm payrolls data recovered in March, the bitcoin price will fall. The market is waiting for the U.S. march CPl and core CPl results. Before these data and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price is looking downward.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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