Personal opinions today

 

The U.S. PPI in March and U.S. jobless claims for the week ended April 6 over market expectations, pointing to a strengthening U.S. economy and labor market, rising inflation expectations, recovery in the Dow Jones industrial average and gold prices fell $20. But the dollar's strength is likely to slow on expectations that U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, both released today, will be lower than previously thought. In addition, the temporary removal of the risk of a hard Brexit could boost European currencies, but gold prices were lower.

 

[Important data and events to watch]

10:00 China trade account in March 

10:50 China's trade account in dollars in March

17:00 Eurozone industrial output in February

20:30 US import price index monthly rate in March 

22:00 University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April

 

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1260/1.1245 support

1.1295/1.1315 resistance

Markets priced in a shock to the ECB's targeted long-term refinancing program (TLTRO), and Brexit risks eased. In addition, Germany's final monthly CPI in March was in line with expectations and helped the euro by avoiding economic and inflation risks. In the short term, the EURUSD trend can be focused on today's U.S. import price index for march and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary performance. Technically, the EURUSD reference to a rebound of 38.2 percent and 50 percent. 1.1285 and 1.1315, respectively. If the dollar remains strong, the key short-term support level is 1.1245.

 

GBPUSD 

1.3050/1.3035 support

1.3115/1.3140 resistance

The extension of the Brexit deadline to October 31, reduced the risk of a fall in the pound. The dollar strengthened and the pound fell yesterday because the US economy and inflation data were better-than-expected, which is limited for the pound to fall. In the short term, the GBPUSD trend can be focused on today's U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary performance. If the dollar remains strong, the technical reference for sterling is at 1.3035, with support and positive news expected to test 50 per cent and 61.8 per cent reference resistance at 1.3090 and 1.3115 respectively.

 

USDCHF 

1.0045/1.0060 resistance

1.0005/0.9980 support

U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, the dollar strengthened, the Swiss franc fell, and the dollar again hit resistance at 1.0030. In the short term, the dollar is likely to be influenced by the release of U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index today. Technical resistance at 1.0045 and 1.0060 if the dollar remains strong. Otherwise, the reference support is 1.0005 and 0.9980.

 

USDJPY

111.55/111.40 support

112.00/112.15 resistance

U.S. economic and inflation data beat forecasts, and the Dow Jones and Nikkei rebounded. In addition, the risk of a hard Brexit in the UK has cooled and risk aversion has cooled, with money flowing into US dollar against yen. The dollar rose against the yen, breaking through resistance at 111.40 and 111.70 respectively. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was released today. If the U.S. economic data is strong and the Dow Jones industrial average rises, the USDJPY could test the upper level of reference resistance against the yen at 111.88, which is the highest level since March 15. Then maybe tests 112.00 and 112.15.

 

AUDUSD 

0.7110/0.7095 support

0.7150/0.7165 resistance

U.S. economic and inflation data improved, while the dollar strengthened, and the Australian dollar fell. Technically, the AUD broke through the support of 0.7135 against the U.S. dollar, extending its losses and possibly testing support of 0.7110 and 0.7095. The Australian dollar is likely to fall further against the U.S. dollar if U.S. economic data is strong, according to a preliminary reading of U.S. import prices for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index released today.

 

NZDUSD 

0.6740/0.6755 resistance

0.6715/0.6700 support

U.S. economic and inflation data improved, and the dollar strengthened, with the New York dollar hitting its lowest level in nearly a month at 0.6715. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, both released today, are expected to show further support for the New Zealand dollar above 0.6715 if U.S. economic data is strong. The market is waiting for the U.S. data, the dollar’s pattern to be changed.

 

USDCAD 

1.3400/1.3425 resistance

1.3350/1.3325 support

U.S. economic and inflation data were solid, and the dollar was strong. The Canadian dollar fell, cause the OPEC and other party intended to increase production, sending crude oil prices below $64. Technically, refer to 1.3400 and 1.3425 resistance levels, and support levels refer to 1.3350 and 1.3325 support. In the short term, USDCAD is mainly affected by crude oil price and USD trend as well, so it is recommended to keep an eye on it.

 

XAUUSD 

1288/1285 support

1299/1302 resistance

Gold price fell from the high. Gold prices are likely to move lower as the U.S. CPl and PPI improved in March and the Brexit delayed. Us economic and inflation data beat expectations yesterday, accelerating capital outflows. The U.S. import price index for March and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released today showed that gold prices will continue to downward if the U.S. economic data is strong, and the initial targets are 1288 and 1285. Instead, reference resistance 1299 and 1302.

 

U.S. crude futures USOIL 

64.05/64.40 resistance

63.25/62.70 support

OPEC intends to increase production, crude oil prices below $64. Technically, the target price could fall to $63.75 or $63.45. If the current intentions of crude producers continue, crude oil prices have a chance to test the support level of 62.70 or below.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26085/26015 support

26242/26345 resistance

The Dow Jones industrial average rose on a day of better-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data and a renewed positive investment sentiment. Dow at 26,242 and 26,345 resistance. If a trend has been fall, can refer to 26085 or 26015 support.

 

BTCUSD:

5050 / 5200 resistance

4750 / 4650 support

The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price keeps stronger. The market is waiting for the U.S. CPl and PPI In March results and the FOMC minutes, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200, it could be test 4750 or 4650 support.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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