Personal opinions today:

 

The consumer confidence rose in May, following Michigan consumer sentiment last week. But the Dallas Fed business activity fell in May, the Dow Jones index drop over 200 points. The recent trade war between China and the United States has heated up and has seen a number of weak U.S. manufacturing and industrial data. Last week, the U.S. reported durable goods orders fell for April. On Thursday, the U.S. real GDP for the first quarter, forecast drop to 2%. Besides, the Dow fell on fears of a recession as long-term Treasury yields fell below short-term yields. Now, the dollar remains strong, because the Eurozone economy is weaker than the U.S. and Italy widening fiscal deficit and the risk of a hard Brexit for Britain. If European data and UK policy going better, reduce the risk of a hard Brexit. It will bullish European currencies and the dollar fell.

 

Today, the market focus is on Germany's seasonally unemployment number and unemployment rate in May, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for May. Besides, the next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories for the last week, which may affect crude oil price fluctuations.

 

[Important financial data and events to watch]

14:45 France final annualized GDP for the first quarter

14:45 French CPI monthly rate for May

15:00 Swiss KOF economic leading indicator for May

15:55 Germany seasonally unemployment number for May

15:55 Germany seasonally unemployment rate for May

16:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for May

22:00 The Bank of Canada interest rate decision

22:00 U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for May

Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks for the week

 

Today suggestion:

EURUSD 

1.1155/1.1140 support

1.1190/1.1205 resistance

The European Union says it is concerned about Italy deficit. Italy has a bigger deficit and could face a 3 billion euro fine from the European Union. Italian government bonds were sold off and the euro fell, hitting 1.1158. While the euro fell, a dollar decline could be positive for the euro if markets predict the U.S. first-quarter real GDP will fall to 2%, released the data on Thursday. Besides, the euro is expected to test 1.12 today after Germany reported unemployment number and unemployment rate for may improvement seasonally. Technically, the reference support is 1.1155 and 1.1140.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2680/1.2700 resistance

1.2635/1.2605 support

The British prime minister announced resigned, but the prospect that the next prime minister might towards a hard Brexit has the chance to hit GBPUSD. The GBP could fall as low as 1.2 per cent or even try 1.1 per cent as the risk of a hard Brexit rise, according to most financial analysts. The pound fell recently after being held back at the 1.27 level. Technically, the GBP reference resistance is 1.2680 and 1.2700. The trend continues to go down, try below 1.2635 or 1.2605 support.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6930/0.6945 resistance

0.6900/0.6880 support

The trade war between China and the United States is still not over, the U.S. President once again expressed negative comments, the rise of the Australian dollar was blocked, but temporarily maintained the level of 0.69. Technically, there are still downside risks to the AUDUSD trend. If China and US trade talks is confirmed in the short term, there will be reasons to support the continued rise of the Australian dollar. Almost,  the New Zealand dollar follow with AUD. Please pay attention to the downside risks of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar. The Australian dollar may test 0.6880 support and 0.6515 support, respectively.

 

USDJPY 

109.70/109.90 resistance

109.35/109.15 support

The dollar fell against the yen. At present, the US President's speech, for the China and US trade war concerns, USDJPY fell. It is estimated that the Dow and Nikkei fluctuate repeatedly, and the dollar fluctuates against the yen. Invest in the dollar against the yen, the recommended reference to the Dow and Nikkei index, looking for the dollar against the yen trend.

 

USDCAD 

1.3495/1.3515 resistance

1.3445/1.3425 support

Crude oil prices were limited gains near $59, with prices falling and the Canadian dollar the following suit. Besides, the bank of Canada's interest rate meeting today, generally believed that the interest rate unchanged, but before the meeting, the expected rise of the Canadian dollar was restrained, leading to the rise of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. Technical action, the U.S. dollar hit resistance against the Canadian dollar at $1.3485. The Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen today if the bank of Canada decides the interest rates unchanged or considers raising them in future monetary policy comments. Conversely, the USDCAD could test the $1.35 level.

 

U.S. crude futures USOIL 

58.40/57.85 support

59.05/59.75 resistance

Crude oil prices fell last week as U.S. crude inventories for API and ElA rose. The market is waiting to see the latest APl crude inventories released tomorrow morning. Conversely, the price of crude oil rose. Technically, refer to first resistance $59.05 and $59.75, and support below $58.40 and $57.85.

 

XAUUSD

1278/1276 support

1285/1287 resistance

Gold prices fell after the US confidence index rose in May on expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates. However, the trade between China and the United States has not been reopened. The market analysis report pointed out that the trade war between China and the United States caused the US economy to decline. Technically, the suggested support 1282 and 1280 have been broken.  However, it is estimated that the U.S. and global stock markets have a chance for the gold price to rise due to the China and US trade war and the controversy over the two countries. The first target is above the targets 1285 and 1287 resistance, and the next resistance levels are 1290 and 1292.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

25435/25560 resistance

25210/24900 support

Investors continue to pay attention to information related to China and the US economy and trade war, especially comments from both sides, and find that the two countries continue to argue, which lost investment confidence. Also, the Dow Jones industrial average fell before the close, down more than 200 points from its end, on expectations of a revised drop in the U.S. first-quarter real GDP on Thursday. Current recommendations focus on resistance of 25,435 and 25,560. The following bits support 25210 and 24900.

 

BTCUSD:

8950 / 9250 resistance

8550 / 8300 support

Trade tension, US data shown slow down. Expected Fed will not intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price breakthrough $8000 and probably reach to $9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend. 

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.