ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.19
Personal opinions today:
FOMC monetary policy decision and policy statement at 02:00, followed by a press conference by Fed chairman Powell at 02:30. At present, the market watching the Fed monetary policy orientation. If the Fed says it plans to cut interest rates more than once this year, US dollar downward in the second half of the year. The dollar index is expected to remain in a narrow range before the FOMC interest rate announcement and the press conference. The dollar index fluctuated after the meeting or after a press conference, followed on the Fed monetary policy orientation.
In other update yesterday, the euro fell to 1.1180 after the US President commented on the European central bank's monetary policy, saying it was manipulating the euro. In addition, the China and US trade consultation is scheduled to resume to improve the investment sentiment. The US President said he will meet a China leader at the G20 summit later this end of month. Investment sentiment rose, with the U.S. Dow Jones future, Japan Nikkei index and Asian stocks and crude oil prices rising, while gold prices and the yen fell. For now, the market is waiting to see what China leader speech. Confirmed a trade deal would bullish global equities and crude oil prices, while bearish gold price and the yen would fall further.
Important financial data and events to watch today include the UK CPI and the Retail price index monthly rate for May and the Canadian CPI monthly rate for May. Finally, the FOMC announced interest rate decisions and policy statements and Fed chairman Powell speech in a press conference.
[Important financial data and events]
14:00 German PPI monthly rate in May
16:00 Eurozone current account for April
16:30 UK CPI and Retail price index for May
18:00 UK CBI industrial order for June
20:30 Canada CPI monthly rate in May
22:00 ECB President Draghi speech for Euro Group meeting
22:30 EIA crude oil stocks
The next day, at 02:00, FOMC releases its interest rate decision and policy statement
The next day, at 02:30 Fed chairman Powell holds a press conference
Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1225/1.1240 resistance
1.1185/1.1170 support
Eurozone inflation data were weak, with the monthly rate falling in May. Germany PPI rate in May is also expected to be weak, the Eurozone current account for April also weak. Suggest that during European markets opening, the euro continued to limit the rise. In addition, before the European market closes, European central bank President Draghi speech on the European group meeting and the FOMC interest rate decision and policy statement may boost the euro. Technically, looking ahead to the euro short-term trend, 1.1240 is the first resistance, while the support ranges 1.1185 and 1.1170 are the support for short-term.
GBPUSD
1.2580/1.2600 resistance
1.2545/1.2530 support
The US President commentary, the European central bank was manipulating the value of the euro, Euro fund was moving into pound. In addition, trade talks reopening and a reduction in crude oil stocks boosted crude oil prices, with the GBPUSD above its support level of 1.2558. But when it comes to investing, keep an eye on European markets, the UK releases monthly CPI and retail price indices for may. The data is expected to be negative for sterling, which may adjust yesterday's gains. Yesterday, after the euro against sterling adjustment, the euro against sterling is expected to rise, testing 0.8970 or 0.90 level.
AUDUSD
0.6885/0.6900 resistance
0.6865/0.6850 support
The planned reopening of trade talks between the US and China has boosted the Australian dollar. The news has been confirmed by the Chinese side, further upward Australian dollar. Technically, AUDUSD are likely to break through resistance at 0.6900, support at 0.6865 and 0.6850. In addition, the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting will affect the dollar. On the monetary policy said cut or keep interest rates unchanged, also affected the AUDUSD. If the Fed is planning to cut interest rates, the Australian dollar is likely to break through the 0.6900 resistance level.
USDJPY
108.70/108.90 resistance
108.35/108.20 support
The planned reopening of trade talks between the United States and China, bullish the Dow future. The dollar rose against the yen with the Dow and Nikkei. But the trade war between China and the United States remains unresolved, and the Dow and Nikkei index still has a chance to weaken, limiting the stock market and USDJPY. Technical, USDJPY limits of 108.70 and 108.90 resistance. Keeping an eye on how the Dow and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend.
USDCAD
1.3360/1.3345 support
1.3410/1.3425 resistance
U. S. crude oil prices rebound, indirect gains Canadian dollars. If crude oil price fails to break $55, the Canadian dollar could fall. Canadian inflation data for May was released today. The Canadian inflation data, which predicted only 0.2 percent. If the result below market expectations, would be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Yesterday this analysis recommended USDCAD reference support level 1.3380 and 1.3360, has been reached. Estimated USDCAD retraces, it will test resistance of 1.3410 and 1.3425. If Canadian inflation data, in line with market expectations, crude oil prices continue to rise, will bullish the Canadian dollar.
Us crude oil futures USOIL
54.45/55.10 resistance
52.85/52.65 support
U.S. API crude oil stocks reduction, bullish crude oil prices. Most important, the US President said trade talks with China would resume on the G20 summit, boosting crude oil prices. However, it is worth noting that due to seasonal demand factors, the decrease in crude oil demand is likely to continue, leading to an increase in oil stocks in the future, and futures prices are likely to fall and limit the rise. Technically, refer to the important resistance of 55.10, and look down at the support of 52.85 and 52.65.
XAUUSD
1348/1350 resistance
1332/1330 support
The market expects the federal reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, boosting gold prices. The federal reserve's policy meeting ends today, with the expectation that the fed, in line with the President's support for rate cuts, plans to cut rates this year, with gold expected to consolidate at $1,330. If the fed is planning a rate cut, gold could test resistance again at $1348 and $1350. But investors were concerned that the planned resumption of trade talks between the United States and China boosted stocks, while short-term gold gains were limited. Technical support bits of $1332 and $1330. Technically, gold prices above $1329 support level, trend may downward, please note.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26520/26700 resistance
26300/26050 support
The Dow future closed in a tight range as the investment mood remained on the sidelines ahead of the federal reserve's policy meeting. But the planned reopening of the US-China trade talks boosted stocks. Technically, the dow broke through 26320 resistance, once as high as 26515. The federal reserve bureau of interest rates are expected to remain unchanged today, the dow narrow volatility. According to this analysis yesterday, any remarks made by US President trump, including opinions on monetary policy and china-us trade consultation. For positive talk, the Dow could test resistance. If not, look down the support. Technically, 26,700 is a two-month high, which could limit the Dow gains.
BTCUSD:
9210 / 9350 resistance
8720 / 8520 support
Expected Fed fund rate will cut, bullish the bitcoin. The bitcoin uptrend recently breaks US9000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. The US President said reopening of the US-China trade talks, bearish the price of Bitcoin.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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