Personal opinions today:

The most important economic data to watch this week include U.S. durable goods orders for May and the first-quarter real GDP final. These data would be expected to signal the U.S. labor market in June, with non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate. The dollar index could break through its three-month low of 95.80, and it may try its low of around 95 at the start of the year if these dates were weak. The dollar index looks to approximately 95 would mean the euro would break through the $1.14, it would reach to $1.1460 to $1.1480. GBPUSD could also be pushed up to $1.2820 to $1.2870. Gold prices are likely to rise further.

Ahead of this weekend's G20 summit, US and China trade officers will meet in advance tomorrow, raising hopes that progress can be made and that the two sides can reach an agreement to reduce the US and China trade crisis. If the two countries plan to renegotiate their trade relationship and boost economic growth forecasts, the Fed could hold off on cutting interest rates again, which would have a chance to boost the U.S. dollar, bullish for the China RMB, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar, and bullish the price of crude oil as well. If the dollar rises, European currencies and gold prices could fall. Please pay attention to the latest news!

[Important financial data and events]

16:00 Germany IFO business climate index for June

22:30 Dallas fed business activity index for June

Today suggestion :

EURUSD

1.1405/1.1420 resistance

1.1360/1.1345 support

The Fed 's monetary policy statement signalled interest rate cut in the second half of the year, sending the dollar lower and boosting the euro. The expected rise in the euro follows the release today of Germany IFO business climate index for June. Market expectations are now lower than previously thought, and the euro could adjust lower if the data turn out to be less than expected. On the contrary, in line with expectations or better than expected, the euro is expected to rise. Technically, EURUSD break through the recent high of 1.1345, the rise in EURUSD could further expand.

GBPUSD

1.2770/1.2795 resistance

1.2725/1.2700 support

The market expected the Fed fund rate could cut in the second half of the year, and the dollar fell. Meanwhile, the federal reserve cut interest rates to help stimulate the economy, the price of U.K. oil rose, bullish to the GBPUSD. But the conservative party leadership election, would bearish GBPUSD. Technically, short-term important resistance 1.2755 is still waiting for a breakthrough, note that the resistance breakthrough failure, GBPUSD would adjust. The euro is expected to rise against sterling, with short-term support at 0.8900 and 0.8880, first target 0.8940. On the contrary, if the breakthrough 0.8870 support, a trend may fall further.

AUDUSD

0.6975/0.6990 resistance

0.6925/0.6910 support

The Australian dollar was boosted by hopes for progress ahead of the G20 summit on Friday to ease market tensions ahead of a planned the minister-level trade talk between China and the US tomorrow. Besides, the federal reserve's monetary policy signalled a rate cut in the second half of the year, which also bullish the Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD is looking at 0.6975 resistance or 0.6990. Support focused on 0.6925 and 0.6910. The trend of the AUDUSD, generally indirectly leading the direction of the NZDUSD, is worth paying attention to each other. Typically, the NZDUSD follows the AUDUSD. Take note when investing in the NZDUSD.

USDJPY

107.25/107.10 support

107.70/107.85 resistance

Japan core consumer price index fell at an annual and monthly rate, and other Japanese economic data also showed a slowdown. The Nikkei fell at its highest level, as risk aversion and money flowed back, pushing the dollar as low as 107.05 against the yen. But the market is now looking forward to the resumption of trade talks this week, which could boost the investment climate and lift stocks. To estimate short-term fluctuations, refer to 107.25 and 107.10 support, important support 106.85. Upward resistance of 107.70 and 107.85. If the Dow and Nikkei pick up again, they could try the 108 level.

USDCAD

1.3165/1.3150 support

1.3215/1.3235 resistance

U.S. crude oil prices rebounded to $57, bullish the Canadian dollar. Besides, the Fed signalled a rate cut in the second half of the year, pushing the Canadian dollar higher. For now, the market is looking ahead to tomorrow US-China trade talks, which could boost crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar. Instead, trade talks have stalled, without any good news. The crude oil price failure breaks $58, an important resistance to crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Technically, 1.3235 is the USDCAD important resistance level. The market on the sidelines, pay attention to the USDCAD in the range and fluctuations.

Us crude oil futures USOIL

57.85/58.35 resistance

56.85/56.15 support

China-US trade talks should start tomorrow and progress is expected during the G20 leader summit on Friday. The federal reserve plans to consider cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, two factors that have bullish crude oil prices. The market is watching tomorrow China and US trade ministers level trade consultation. If the trade war is eased, oil prices could continue to rise. Conversely, if any negative news, the impact of crude oil prices fell. Technically, consider the 85 % rally in Fibonacci in this month, with a target price of $58.35. In contrast, there was no good news in the trade talks, with crude oil futures likely to break through the $56 support and watch for further declines.

XAUUSD

1415/1418 resistance

1398/1395 support

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, boosting gold prices. Speculative buying returned to the Asian market today, lifting gold prices. Also concerned about the resumption of the China and US trade talks, if progress is made to bullish the stock market, gold price gains are limited or correction. Technically, the gold price may be subject to 1415 and 1418 resistance. Support levels can be seen at $1398 and $1395. If good news comes out of the trade talks and bullish the stock market, watch gold prices fall, with a key support target of $1380.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26815/26945 resistance

26515/26395 support

Trade talks between China and the US resumed tomorrow as investors waited to see if progress could be made, with the Dow trading in a tight range. Technically, keep an eye on the Dow before it tries the 27, 000 barrier. Supports bits 26515 and 26395. A break above 26245 could extend further to 26000.

BTCUSD:

11300 / 11550 resistance

10450 / 10250 support

The market expected Fed fund rate will cut in the second half year, bullish the bitcoin. However, we must keep watching the China and U.S. trade talk tomorrow and the G20 leader summit this Friday. Now, The US-China trade talks restart, it would be bearish the Bitcoin. Now, we suggest following the gold price’s trend to catch up the market sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 

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