Personal opinions today:

 

Many members of the European central bank (ECB) agreed to stabilize the European economy with low interest rates and to strengthen the economy. The European central bank's comments were bearish on the euro. In addition, last weekend, China and the US reached a deal to restart trade talks, and temporarily stopped the extra tariff policy and strengthening bilateral trade cooperation, which is benefiting the investment sentiment. Yesterday, the Dow closed higher, the dollar index rose, but gold prices fell.

 

The RBA is expected to cut interest rates today. The Australian dollar has fallen 38.2 per cent from high of 0.70 to 0.69 level. If it falls further to 50%, the target is 0.6932. The New Zealand dollar followed the Australian dollar down 23.6% to 0.6665.

 

In European trading today, watch for European economic data, including U.K. Nationwide's monthly home price index for June and the euro zone's may PPI. The market expects the data to increase from the previous month, which is expected to benefit the euro. The Fed's Williams speech and press conference at the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings. Bank of England governor Carney was at the meeting during US trading hours.

 

[Important financial data and events]

 

12:30 The RBA interest rates decision

14:00 UK Nationwide house price index for June

16:00 OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meetings

17:00 Eurozone PPI monthly rate for May

17:30 Australian federal reserve bank chairman speech 

18:35 US Fed Williams speaks

19:00 OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial press conference 

22:05 U.K. Bank of England governor Carney speech 

Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories change

 

Today suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1265/1.1245 support

1.1320/1.1340 resistance

In the euro zone, Germany and France, the final manufacturing PMI for June was slightly lower than the previous month. Euro unemployment was flat, but the number of unemployed fell, which was positive for the European economy. But the euro fell after the European central bank (ECB) bankers' association, the governing body of the European central bank, agreed with the ECB to step up its loose monetary policy. The euro was further bearish after the U.S. manufacturing PMI for June came in stronger than expected. Expected improvement in euro zone PPI data today, positive euro. Technically, euro short-term support is expected at 1.1265 and 1.1245. The euro could test resistance to 1.1320 or 1.1340 if the euro zone data beat expectations.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2630/1.2605 support

1.2660/1.2680 resistance

U.K. faces a huge risk of a hard brexit without a deal, with British pound downward. UK manufacturing PMI for June which was weaker-than-expected, weighed against British pound. Technically, technical support of the GBPUSD, recommendations 1.2630 and 1.2605. Short-term resistance at 1.2660 and 1.2680. The EURGBP is currently trading between 0.8920 and 0.8975. The EURGBP could test 0.9000 if the British pound fall widely while the euro stabilizes or rises.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6985/0.7005 resistance

0.6955/0.6935 support

The leaders of China and the United States agreed to formally reopen trade talks and suspend addition tariffs on other goods imported from China. However, RBA interest rate decision, the market is expected to cut rates, AUDUSD fell start from yesterday. Technically, the AUDUSD trend adjustment, the proposed reference support level 0.6935. The Australian dollar is expected to remain at 0.69 per dollar if the RBA decides to cut interest rates by only 0.25 per cent and consider no further rate cuts in the short term. The Australian dollar could be boosted by the confirmation that trade talks between China and the US will resume soon. As always, the trend of the NZDUSD to follow the AUDUSD trend in the same direction, is worth watching.

 

USDJPY 

108.00/107.75 support

108.75/109.00 resistance

After the G20 summit, China and US leader agreed to cooperate and restart trade negotiations. Nikkei and China's A50 index rose as the US President suspended new tariffs on goods and improved the sentiment for investment, while the dollar followed suit against the yen. The dollar rise against the yen, though, was capped by 108.50 resistance. As long as the dow and Asian stocks continue to perform well, the dollar still has a chance to break through resistance against the yen. Wait and see if the U.S. ADP job data tomorrow and it will lift the Dow and Asian stocks, and the USDJPY. Technical advice, the USDJPY to follow the Dow and Nikkei fluctuations. The expected support bits are first referenced at 108.00 and 107.75, if the stocks market all go down.

 

USDCAD 

1.3070/1.3055 support

1.3135/1.3150 resistance

U.S. crude oil prices hit $60 before adjusting, down nearly $2, bearish the Canadian dollar. The market is watching OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial press conference today, API crude oil inventories change tomorrow. If the price of crude oil rises, bullish the Canadian dollar. Technically, note the support of USDCAD 1.3055. On the contrary, a fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish for the Canadian dollar, with the first target of 1.3150 resistance.

 

US crude oil futures USOIL 

59.60/60.25 resistance

57.75/56.85 support

Crude oil futures prices have been adjusted in anticipation of a supply glut. Crude oil prices could be boosted over the weekend by positive developments in U.S. and China trade relations and OPEC decision to cut production. Technically, $59.70 is near a one-month high and yesterday's high, which could be a significant resistance in this range. The market is watching OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial press conference, also the API crude oil inventories change tomorrow. Crude oil prices could rise as inventories fall. And vice versa.

 

XAUUSD 

1396/1400 resistance

1384/1380 support

The Fed fund rate cut was expected to be only 0.25%, and gold prices cooled. Then, the China and the US decided to resume trade negotiations, risk aversion cooled, the gold price adjust further. Gold prices broke 1400 support, now becomes reference resistance. Currently, the ECB's monetary policy intention and the Fed's expected rate cut are expected to support gold prices at $1,380 in the short term. Now the market looking and watching the U.S. ADP jobs data tomorrow.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26905/26950 resistance

26515/26435 support

China-US trade consultations resumed and the US government suspended new tariffs on China. Good news, to boost the investment climate. But investors were cautious ahead of the U.S. jobs report this week, limiting Dow futures to gains, while the Dow also fell, having tested its 26,635 support. Technically, it is recommended that the Dow test its lows ahead of U.S. ADP job data.

 

BTCUSD:

10650 / 11150 resistance

10050 / 9850 support

China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon. Both relationships improved, bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

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