Yesterday the RBA decreased interest rates by a quarter percentage to 1 %. The day before the European central bank (ECB) mentions keep low interest rates to stabilize and revive the economy. Yesterday, BOE governor Carney mentions the same message to decrease interest rate, the markets expect the Eurozone and the UK to face interest rate cuts. The market also expects the federal reserve to cut interest rates when it meets at the end of this month. The US President threat to impose tariffs on imports from the European Union yesterday, increased risk aversion in the market, hedge funds flow into the gold, boosting the gold price. The upcoming U.S. jobs data for June could be the next indicator of how risk aversion in the market is affecting gold prices and crude oil prices.

 

China, Europe and the United States each reported June service sector PMI today, which could affect the country's currency. But the market placed more emphasis on U.S. ADP job data in June, trade accounts and factory orders. If U.S. data show bigger gains, Fed rate cut expectations cool down and the dollar rises, limiting the rise of European and commodity currencies. If that happens, gold prices could fall.

 

09:45 China Caixin services PMI for June

15:50 French services PMI for June

15:55 German services PMI for June

16:00 Eurozone services PMI for June

16:30 UK services PMI for June

20:15 U.S. ADP employment in June

20:30 US trade account for May and initial jobless claims

21:45 U.S. final Markit service PMI for June

22:00 US factory orders in May

22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change 

 

 

EURUSD

1.1320/1.1340 resistance

1.1265/1.1245 support

Yesterday, Eurozone PPI in line with expectations range, euro rebound from lower. But the ECB said it would tighten monetary policy, and the US President threatened to impose tariffs on eu imports to limit the euro's rise. Markets are watching key U.S. data today, including ADP job data in June and factory orders in May. Technically, euro short-term support levels are expected at 1.1265 and 1.1245. The euro could test resistance to $1.1320 or $1.1340 if U.S. weaker data and under market expectations.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2630/1.2645 resistance

1.2585/1.2570 support

UK party leader election this week and facing  a hard Brexit, suggesting the economy could be at risk and the GBPUSD weak. In addition, BOE governor Carney said yesterday that the UK economy faces uncertainty and the possibility of recession, in order to maintain economic vitality and achieve the inflation target of 2%, they are considering change monetary policy to lower interest rate. Market expectations that the BOE will cut interest rates soon which is  bearish on the British pound. Technically, GBP fell to short term adjusted wave 200%, 1.2585. While the market is watching for U.S. data on June ADP employment and factory orders in May tonight , GBPUSD will remain on hold for the time being. The EURGBP is still trading in a range of 0.8920 to 0.8975. The EURGBP could test 0.9000 if the GBPUSD fall wide.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6985/0.7005 resistance

0.6955/0.6935 support

The reserve bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates yesterday, in line with expectations. The RBA said it was not considering further rate cuts in the short term. On the other hands, the Australian dollar could get a further boost if the U.S. and China trade consultation can decide on a timetable to reopen soon. Today, the market watches the U.S. ADP job data in June and factory orders in May. The data affects the U.S. dollar and indirectly affects the Australian dollar. Under normal circumstances, the trend of the NZDUSD to follow the direction of the AUDUSD.

 

USDJPY 

107.45/107.25 support

107.85/108.10 resistance

Risk aversion has risen after the US President threatened to impose tariffs on eu imports. China's caixin services PMI fell in June, Asian stocks fell and the dollar fell against the yen. The dollar fell to around 107.50 yen. It is recommended to wait and see whether the US ADP job data will lift the Dow and Asian stocks, and then the dollar against the yen. Technical suggestion, the USDJPY following the Dow and Nikkei fluctuations and sentiment. The expected support bits are first referenced at 107.45 and 107.25. Resistance level test 108.10

 

USDCAD 

1.3090/1.3070 support

1.3135/1.3150 resistance

Canada manufacturing purchasing index and national economic confidence index showed growth, fundamentals are positive for the Canadian dollar. Unfortunately, U.S. crude oil prices continue to adjust, bearish Canadian dollar. OPEC and non-OPEC commitment to reduce production, the US API crude oil inventory reduction, Europe, the Fed planing to cut interest rates, generally positive crude oil prices, bullish Canadian dollars. But the US President has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from the European Union to hit demand and limit the rise in crude oil prices. Recommended watch the U.S. ADP job data and factory orders tonight. Technically, note the USDCAD 1.3070 support. On the contrary, a fall in crude oil prices would likely be bearish the Canadian dollar, with initial targets of 1.3135 and 1.3150 resisting.

 

Us crude oil futures

57.70/58.55 resistance

56.20/55.85 support

US crude oil futures fell to US56 level after the US President threatened to impose tariffs on imports from the European Union to hit the crude oil demand. But OPEC and non-OPEC decisions to cut production and lower U.S. API inventories could stabilize crude prices. In addition, it is recommended to watch U.S. ADP job data and factory orders for testing the crude oil demand. Technically, refer to 56.20 and 55.85 supports, 57.70 and 58.55 resistances.

 

XAUUSD 

1436/1440 resistance

1420/1416 support

The federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, the ECB and the BOE are both planning to cut interest rates, bullish the gold price. Another reason let the gold price rose above 1,400 last night as risk aversion increased after the US President threatened to impose tariffs on imports from the European Union. Yesterday, this analysis mentions that the ECB monetary policy orientation and the federal reserve rate cut expectations, estimated to support gold prices in the short term at $1,380. Now, the market is watching the U.S. jobs data and factory orders tonight. If the U.S. data is strong, gold has a chance to fall and test US1400. Current technical estimates, 1436 and 1440 resistance, 1420 and 1416 support.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26825/26905 resistance

26515/26435 support

China-US trade talks are scheduled to resume and US government is suspending new tariffs on China. But the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU, it was a bad news, failing to lift the Dow future and limiting its rise. Investors were cautious about the possibility of a lower Dow future ahead of 

 ADP jobs data today and U.S. holiday tomorrow. Technically, the Dow is expected to remain at a test low ahead of U.S. ADP job data.

 

BTCUSD:

11850 / 12550 resistance

10850 / 10550 support

China and U.S. trade talk planned reopening soon,  theirs relationship improved, suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. However, the US President plans to impose tariffs on EU, ECB and BOE plans decreases interest rate. These news change the market sentiment, bullish the bitcoin. Technically, its suggested the bitcoin sentiment following the gold price. If the gold price go down further, the bitcoin price probably following.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.