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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 11

 

Personal opinions today:

 

The British parliament successfully blocked a "no-deal" Brexit, the risk of Britain cooling down, and the market is also looking for progress in china-us trade talks. More important, the report said U.S. inflation remained moderate, but the labour market was tight, with temporary jobs being created and higher wages attracting jobs. Dow Jones industrial average futures were trading down to up in late trading yesterday after news that U.S. companies expect the economy to continue to grow in the fourth quarter boosted the investment climate. As usual, the dollar rose against the yen and gold fell. Oil futures prices had been adjusted before Opec, and the EIA released their monthly crude market reports. But U.S. API crude oil inventories fell sharply, oil futures prices rebounded.

 

Watch the dollar and dow futures today. During U.S. trading hours, note the monthly U.S. PPI rate for August and the monthly U.S. wholesale sales rate for July. Opec and EIA crude oil market reports may lead to dow futures, and crude oil prices adjust.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

16:00 China August M2 money supply, financing scale **

18:30 OPEC releases monthly oil market report ***

20:30 Canada Capacity utilization in Q2 **

20:30 U.S. monthly PPI in August **

22:00 U.S. wholesale sales in July **

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories change**

24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook **

 

Today suggestion :

 

Eurodollar

1.1060/1.1080 resistance

1.1015/1.0095 support

The Euro has barely breached its 20-day average after hitting resistance in recent days as markets wait to see when the European central bank monetary policy decision tomorrow in anticipation of a policy easing and interest rate cut. Today's focus is on the U.S. producer price index for August. Technically, watch Euro 1.1060 and 1.1080 resistance for short-term. It is believed that after the European central bank meeting tomorrow, a new round of monetary stimulus policy is expected to boost the Euro.

 

Pound against dollar

1.2365/1.2385 resistance

1.2315/1.2295 support

The risk of a no-deal Brexit is fading as Britain's parliament votes to block a re-election. But it will be difficult to boost the pound further without an extension of the Oct. 31 deadline. The deal is expected to be a key trading indicator for the pound as the British parliament debates a deadline extension and an orderly exit from the European Union. Today's market focus on the U.S. producer price index in August and the performance of the U.S. dollar. Technically, please pay attention to 1.2400 significant resistance and 1.2280 support.

 

Australian dollar to U.S. dollar

0.6865/0.6885 resistance

0.6825/0.6800 support

Australia reported a drop in consumer confidence and business sentiment. The Australian dollar pared losses yesterday as China's CPl rose. We are now watching the scale of China's money supply and social financing to see how China renminbi performs. If it rose, may indirectly bullish Australian dollars. Technical bit support, look for 0.6825 and 0.6800 support. Resistance levels 0.6865 and 0.6885.

 

Dollar to yen

107.80/108.00 resistance

107.25/107.05 support

Dow and Nikkei futures rose, while the dollar strengthened against the yen. Technically, the preliminary assumption is that Dow futures and Nikkei futures will continue to rise, resistance to 107.80 and 108.00. Note that if Dow futures and Nikkei futures go into reverse, we believe the dollar-yen will follow go down.

 

US dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3175/1.3190 resistance

1.3140/1.3125 support

News that oil producers will control production and stabilize oil prices. The price of crude oil rose, giving the Canadian dollar a lift. But today, OPEC and EIA released their monthly oil market reports, before the release of oil price adjustment. And Canada's Q2 capacity utilization and U.S. August PPI data are likely to limit the rise in the Canadian dollar and suggest staying on the sidelines. Technically, the U.S. dollar against Canadian dollars is worth 1.3125.

 

US crude oil futures

58.45/58.80 resistance

57.35/57.05 support

Crude oil prices were supported by a sharp drop in US API crude stocks. Technically, crude oil price reference supports 57.35 and 57.05. After breaking the 10 and 20-hour averages, crude oil futures could test resistance of 58.45 and 58.80. But note today's monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the EIA, which could help lift crude futures prices if they show an increase.

 

Gold

1497/1501 resistance

1483/1479 support

This week's U.S. retail sales and CPl data for August raised the risk of investors investing in equities, while gold prices adjusted to lower as demand decreasing. But, there is an opportunity for gold to gain on Thursday after the European central bank's interest rate hike and U.S. inflation data. Short term the gold price will focus on 1483 or 1479 support and 1497 or 1501 resistance.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26970/27060 resistance

26765/26660 support

The trade war between China and the United States eased, and investment sentiment improved. The British parliament succeeded in preventing a hard Brexit and avoiding re-election. These factors are reflected in the rise in Dow futures. Markets are waiting for August's CPl data and retail sales data, as well as the latest comments from the U.S. President and the federal reserve. Dow futures are expected to have a chance to pare gains if the 27,000 resistance break fails and dip below recommended support.

 

BTCUSD:

10350 /10550 resistance

10050 / 9850 support

The market expected the FOMC may hold monetary policy decision in September, it could hold the interest rate, the bitcoin price fell. In coming, we have looking at the Dow future. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price and crypto currencies upward. Now, the market is looking at US$10050 and US$9850 support, and forecast to US$10350 and US$10550 resistance.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

 

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