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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Oct 8

 

Personal opinions today:

 

Markets expect the Fed could cut rates this month. Besides, U.S. Dow futures continued to rise in anticipation of the 13th round of US and China trade talks on Thursday. Expectations of a consensus on trade between China and the United States to improve trade tensions between China and the United States, risk aversion to cool, gold and silver prices fell.

 

In European trading today, watch for Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, which could affect Switzerland and the Euro, respectively. Generally speaking, the above data can affect the same trend of the two countries' currencies. As the time approaches for Brexit, the British parliament should take note of the fall in the pound without constructive negotiations with the EU. U.S. market hours, the U.S. September PPI, Fed officials and chairman of the speech. The crude oil futures market, watch the U.S. API crude oil inventory last week, crude oil futures market and price fluctuations.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

Summertime is in effect in Australia

GMT+3 is the time of the trading platform. The above arrangements are subject to change without prior notice.

 

07:50 Japan August trade account *

09:45 China Caixin services PMI in September **

13:45 Swiss unemployment rate in September **

14:00 German industrial output in August ***

18:00 U.S. NFIB small business confidence index **

20:30 US PPI in September ***

The next day 01:35 Fed Evans speaks **

The next day 01:50 Federal chairman Powell speech ***

The next day 04:30 US API crude oil stocks change ***

 

Today's suggestion:

 

Euro/dollar

1.0995/1.1015 resistance

1.0955/1.0935 support

Swiss unemployment in September and German industrial output in August, consensus expectations improved from the previous month, U.S. economic data was weak, the dollar may have fallen, and the Euro took the opportunity to rebound, but the hard to 1.1000 resistance without any good reasons. If today's US September PPI and speeches by Fed officials or Fed chairman confirm that the Fed is considering cutting interest rates at the end of this month, the Euro could test or break the resistance after the current correction. Technical, short - term support pay attention to 1.0955 support, resistance 1.0995.

 

Pound to dollar

1.2360/1.2380 resistance

1.2270/1.2250 support

Brexit is a serious matter. As mentioned above, the deadline for the UK to leave the EU is approaching, and the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU still fail to proceed smoothly or see any consensus to leave the EU or delay the deadline. Fundamentals lead to bearish the pound; the estimated target will be down 1.22 level and extended to 1.21. If any favourable agreement stimulates pound, it could test 1.2380 resistance. On the contrary, if Brexit deal unfavourite the UK, the pound could fall to 1.21. Today could be influenced by weak U.S. economic data or comments from the federal reserve. Pound would test the initial resistance at 1.2360.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6770/0.6780 resistance

0.6725/0.6715 support

This Thursday is the 13th round of US and China trade talks, any good news, which is likely to bullish the Australian dollar. Besides, the Fed would cut the rate. If the US dollar falls, the Australian and New Zealand dollar. Technical trend analysis, if the Australian dollar sticks to 0.6725 to 0.6715 support level is expected to rebound up 0.6780 resistance, more likely up 0.68 level.

 

Dollar/yen

107.45/107.70 resistance

107.05/106.90 support

Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rose as investment sentiment picked up ahead of the upcoming US and China trade talks, while the USDJPY also rose. The dollar is likely to test 107.35 resistance against the yen yesterday as U.S. trade talks with China approach, bullish Dow and Nikkei futures. Continue to refer to the Dow futures, how to lead the dollar against the yen trend. Technically, the USDJPY rebound wave near the current market price level respectively is 107.45 and 107.70. Supports bits 107.05 and 106.90.

 

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3325/1.3340 resistance

1.3290/1.3275 support

The international trade and sentiment is still tense, the trend of oil price is uncertain, the decline of crude oil price continues without significant improvement, and the USDCAD is testing resistance. In short-term, the market focuses the German industrial output in August, U.S. PPI in September and the U.S. crude oil inventories. Also, Fed officials and chairman speech, it would affect the crude oil prices. If crude oil prices are bearish by weak production data in Europe and the United States and a sharp rise in crude oil inventories, the USDCAD could test 1.3325 or 1.3340 resistance. Otherwise, would check the support for 1.3290 or 1.3275.

 

US crude oil futures

53.55/53.90 resistance

52.15/51.75 support

U.S. manufacturing PMI fell for the third straight month, and non-manufacturing PMI fell for the first time. Earlier 

, the Chicago PMI and the Dallas fed's business activity index fell below market expectations. U.S. ADP and official U.S. nonfarm payrolls were weak in September, and oil futures prices fell on concerns about the impact on crude oil demand. For now, the market is focused on the success of the US and China trade talks, with some support for crude oil prices. In the short term, it's important to keep an eye on European and U.S. production data today, crude oil inventories and Fed and US Presidents speak. The commentary can affect the price of crude oil. If any data weak or Fed officials would not cut rate that could bearish crude oil prices. If the trade talks going well, it could lead to higher crude oil prices.

 

Gold

1510/1512 resistance

1489/1487 support

If German industrial output in August or U.S. producer prices in September, all weak. Any comments from the federal reserve that it would cut interest rates that could justify a rebound in gold prices. At present, the market is waiting for the above data before, taking advantage of the improved investment sentiment of US and China trade talks and the cooling of risk aversion, such as last week's trend, gold prices fell first. If the all above mentions data is weak, and the fed will consider cutting interest rates soon. Or the US and China trade talks could fall apart without progress. These things, presumably, could trigger a sharp rise in the price of gold. Technical trends, resistance at $1518 and $1520, support at $1465 and $1463 are being watched. In the short term, there is nothing to do. Look out for $1489 or $1487 support, $1510 or $1512 resistance. Most important, Dow futures and gold prices in trends often move in opposite directions. Such as, Dow futures rose, while gold fell.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26660/26815 resistance

26265/26110 support

Most U.S. data for September fell, below the market expectations, and Dow futures fell. With the current China-US trade talks, part of the investment climate improved, Dow futures rose. If the market is looking forward to the China-US trade talks on Thursday, there is any negative news, the investment sentiment fell. Dow futures could fall if a U.S. President Trump speaks destroyed the 13th-trade talks.

 

BTCUSD:

8550/ 8800 resistance

7960 / 7885 support

Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is significant. After tests the critical support, then the bitcoin price rebounded. Most recently, If the gold price rose, the bitcoin price would follow. If any adjustment again, it would look at US7885 that critical support. Next, it would test 8550 or 8800 resistance.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.