ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.10.16
Personal opinions today:
China-US trade negotiations are progressing well. No any remarks or news have damaged their cooperation right now. The market expects the agreement to be finalised in two to three weeks. With the improvement of China-US relations, the investment sentiment bullish, and risk aversion cooled. Dow futures gained, gold and the yen fell and crude oil around $53. European currencies rose as the British prime minister claimed success in his bid for a Brexit deal with the European Commission, pulling the pound higher and the Euro rose indirectly.
In European trading today, the UK released the September CPI and retail price index, and the final CPI for the Eurozone in September. More focus on the U.S. retail sales for September was highlighted in U.S. trading hours ahead of the Fed Beige Book on the US economy. If weak U.S. retail sales and the Fed Beige book show that the U.S. economy is slowing, it could send Dow futures and crude oil lower, and gold could lead the rally and lead-silver to follow.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
16:30 UK CPI and Retail price index **
17:00 Eurozone trade account *
17:00 Eurozone CPI final **
20:30 Canada CPI**
20:30 US Retail Sales ***
The next day 02:00, Fed beige book ***
The next day 04:30, US API crude stocks last week **
The next day 06:00, BOE governor Carney speaks **
Today's suggestion:
Euro/dollar
1.1075/1.1085 resistance
1.1005/1.0995 support
The dollar fell in favor of the euro as the U.S. economy weakened and expectations of a Fed rate cut. On the other hands, the UK sent out a rumor, the Euro test 1.1045 as followed British pound rose. However, the euro could find new headwinds if inflation rises in the eurozone and the U.K. Conversely, the euro adjustment may deepen. Yesterday this analysis indicated that the market would take advantage of the Brexit negotiations news, the impact of the British pound and indirect effects on the euro. The exchange also focuses today on U.S. retail sales and the Fed Beige Book, which could move the Euro.
Pound to dollar
1.2835/1.2845 resistance
1.2655/1.2645 support
The British prime minister presented the new Brexit deal to the European Union, which said it was open to discussion and was not confident the end of the month could resolve it. But when parliament reopened, after the Royal family called for solvent as soon by the end of the month. Yesterday the British prime minister claimed to support, and the pound rose to 1.28. For now, the market is mostly waiting for the European parliament to rule on Thursday or Friday on a deal, approved or not. If ultimately rejected, it could lead to a deep negative for the pound. Today focus, US release retail sales and the Fed Beige Book on the economy could move the pound.
Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6770/0.6780 resistance
0.6735/0.6725 support
The market priced in the success of the trade talks and the Australian dollar was flat. Focus today on U.S. retail sales and the Fed Beige Book, which could move the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Note that U.S. data and the Fed Beige book are likely to be bearish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Dollar/yen
108.85/108.95 resistance
108.30/108.20 support
Investment sentiment well by progress China-US trade talks and the prospect of support for Britain's exit from the European Union. Dow and Nikkei futures rose, leading the dollar higher against the yen. But for now, it's worth noting the U.S. retail sales data and the Fed Beige Book. If the data is weak and the U.S. economy proves recessionary, Dow and Nikkei futures could fall, respectively, and the USDJPY could follow. Technical and investment confidence, the dollar against the yen 109 resistance is critical.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3250/1.3260 resistance
1.3175/1.3165 support
Crude oil prices fell, indirectly affected the Canadian dollar fell. Current market estimates of a drop in U.S. inflation, today U.S. retail sales are expected to be weak, the Fed may cut interest rates. The dollar is soft, and the Canadian dollar is strong. USDCAD trading recommendations focus on crude oil prices. If crude oil prices fell, the USDCAD rose.
United States crude oil futures
54.05/54.30 resistance
52.05/51.75 support
The market expectations of weak U.S. retail sales, which bearish oil demand and oil prices. The market looks to the Fed Beige Book report on the U.S. economy, which could push oil below $52 if the US economy showed critical downward.
Gold
1502/1504 resistance
1481/1479 support
China-US made progress well in trade negotiations and probably succeeded new Brexit deal. Dow and Nikkei futures rose, and gold fell yesterday. U.S. retail sales are expected to fall today, adding to expectations that the federal reserve will cut interest rates. Money flows back into the gold market to hedge; gold prices are likely to rise. The market looks to the U.S. economic report, the Fed beige book, which could cause gold prices to grow if it shows rising economic uncertainty during Dow futures fall. Silver tends to track gold, so keep an eye on it.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27040/27110 resistance
26800/26720 support
Dow futures hit 27,000 points after the success of trade talks, and the sparked discussion of a possible success the deal for Brexit. But the market is still looking at the Fed beige book and U.S. retail sales data for September tonight.
BTCUSD:
8600/ 8850 resistance
8000 / 7885 support
As the US economic slowdown, FOMC would consider cut the Fed fund rate. Which is bullish for cryptocurrencies, bullish Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is critical. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price rebounded, then the bitcoin price would test 8600 or 8850 resistance. Keep watching at the Fed beige book and U.S. retail sales data for September tonight. If bearish US dollar and Dow future, cryptocurrencies mostly upward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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